Member Info for CrustyPete

It goes to reinforce the feeling that the MM's are still not too comfortable with compiling or holding a "long" book CP. We know what that might mean.

That didn't last long!! MM's must have been hit! Will be interesting to see whether a load of orders were triggered by that, very temporary, 1.60p bid.

Currently quoting 1.60 - 1.65p according to II.

Even I wish I had a better average than me, Cyrox :0)

Actually I managed to average down after the huge 0.25p dilution so, despite buying a load more since I am still above water.

Well I can confirm that the last trade is still showing at 1.645p on II. Incidentally I have been offered 1.59p for 100,000 but only 1.552p for 1,000,000. So MM's still not looking confident of taking a long book position at present.

How many decimal points do they work to RJ? Showing as 1.645p on II currently.

My view is "bring it on"- I don't expect there to be a large discount on any raise and even if so I think it will act as a catalyst for an sp rise but that was never deltalo's stance; not previously at least.

I thought you were awaiting the capital raise deltalo? What has changed?

Wonderer, you say "For the moment First gas will be restricted to 40mmcfpd" - exactly so and AEX's share of that is but 25% and even that, contingent on the TPDC back-in. Whilst we all know and accept that the longer term prospects are much, much greater than that how much of a premium for that future growth will be priced in to current price and MC? I'm not sure, to be truthful.

I have been offered 1.5556p for 1,000,000 but no quote for 2,000,000

So now that I am sitting on my GWR train awaiting the 10:30 departure to Bath I will respond to some of your comments SC.

Firstly you need to look at the "facts" that applied at the time of the £250m valuation. Let's list a few.

At no point was the £250m valuation purely attributable to the production from Kiliwani as you state in your 8:46 post.

At the time of that valuation the known production from Kiliwani was 30MMscfd (see RNS of 4th July 2016) of which AEX share was 54%. It was only on preliminary results in April and then at the AGM in Dublin in May 2017 that the issues with Kiiwani were publicised and the extent of them not confirmed in Nov 2017.

The income being earned by AEX at that time was $800k - $1m per month.

In the 6 month run up to the Feb NT2 drill the market cap had stayed in a range of approximately £60 - 80m - this was based on the combined "value" of the Kiliwani production and the known flows from NT1.

The market cap rose by circa 75% between the Ntorya operational update of 9th Jan and the 27th Feb when they announced completion of the drill programme.

The price peaked at 7.8p (I remember it well, my limit price was 8.0p!) just before the well test results were announced in March.

The income is key and not the price being paid for the gas. You say that the price was lower then, than it is now - how so, do you know what the terms of the Ntorya GSA are? I am not arguing, I would expect it to be higher now BUT I was not aware that the new terms have been published?

The expectation for flows from NT2 was enormous (estimated between 50 - 80 MMscfd) so when the results were announced at only 17MMscfd per day the sp naturally took a kicking.

The market was expecting the drilling of NT3 to follow close behind NT2 and was, to a degree, expected to replace the disappointment of NT2 results. Shareholders were disabused of this belief at the Dublin AGM. the [problems encountered a NT2 totally screwed up BoD plans and expectations - and I believe though, only my belief, the support and confidence of the TPDC in AEX's ability to operate the License.

Aminex was 75% owner and operator of the Ntorya license at that time and 54% operator of the Kiliwani License.

So the validation of that £250m valuation AT THAT TIME was loosely as below:

54% x 30MMscfd (monetised) PLUS the expectation of monetisation of 75% of 17MMscfd at NT1 PLUS 75% of 50+MMscfd PLUS anticipated flows from NT3 drill. So 15MMscfd earning money and the prospect of 75% of flows of 70+MMscfd (or 50+MMscfd?) yet to be monetised (and that ignores prospective NT3 flows).

So no SC, the £250m valuation was NEVER based purely on Kiliwani incomes as you would have us believe.

Within months and after the poor outcome of NT2, awareness of the Kiliwani issues and notification that there would be no NT3 drill within months the Market Cap was back at £80m.

I agree Cyrox.

What the Pubecrawler fails to admit is that, whilst He1 has tremendous potential, that potential is still an "if" not a "when" - totally dependent on outcomes of EWT, Appraisal well, stimulation analysis and the formulation of a new methodology for production - NONE these is a "given". This is all about risk versus reward - a ratio that at these prices is still very attractive, which is why I hold several millions of these. (All of the above require funding! Funding comes at a a cost.)

However to ignore or to deny the risks and is just mind bogglingly stupid, disingenuous or arrogant - or in Pubecrawlers case, all three.....

Video updates from Lorna follow an RNS. Have we had an RNS? No.

Kiliwani was earning $1m per month - at the time of the £250m MC no-one knew it was about to run "dry". The results of NT2 weren't even known!

So what SC, we had exactly the same prospects from NT1 and NT2 (and NT3) in 2016 as we have today AND $12m per year from Kiliwani - the assets haven't changed! We could and would have reworked them then in just the same way as we are planning to do today. The "prospects" for those wells and NT3 were the same then as they are today BUT then we held 75% of the assets.

Anyway, I am off for the train.

Bye for now.

Yes SC I would not disagree BUT that is the rationale behind my post Drill prediction of £250m MC. We are simply back where we were 8 years ago. Unlike you and others I am not making any assumptions about any significant upgrade in GIPP and absolutely NOT Oil, for reasons explained umpteen times in the past. Moreover even if there is an upgrade in GIPP it will not significantly affect the immediate share price as most of any upgrade will not be appraised, realised or, most importantly, monetised for years...

Anyway gents I am off tocatch a train now on my way to Bath for the day. May check in later - keep the pot boiling chaps!

Suit yourself Ufufuo. I, on the other hand, prefer not to "count my chickens before they have hatched".

Interesting to note that an annual income of circa $12.75m from the combined NT1, NT2 and CH1 wells would only roughly replace the income being generated from Kiliwani in 2016 at the time of the anticipated "back-to-back" drilling of NT2 and, then NT3 (now CH1) and at a time when AEX was the operator and owner of 75% of the license and hence the proceeds of those up and coming drills. At that time the Market Cap topped £250m.

At first glance it is difficult to see how AEX shareholders are in any better position today, 8 years later, than we were back in 2016. Not until and unless we can reinvigorate Kiliwani and, or look forward to subsequent drills of the Ntorya basin; only then will the "commercials" improve upon what we have already seen in the past.

Ufufuo yes they do say " “based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1”. This looks like an "exploration play" of the "stacked sands" akin to the that of the deeper Jurassic targets in the original CH1 drill plan. It was those deeper targets that caused CH1 to be considered an exploration well rather than an appraisal well.

The "multiple stacked sands" that they are exploring may prove to be a "dud", or may prove that there is the prospect of a shallower sand trap across the Ntorya basin. The CH1 drill will simply test and, hopefully, prove the viability of that sand play, it will not and can not comprehensively appraise it.

Ufufuo. It will take a LOT more than just the CH1 appraisal well to prove up the whole basin! At best, it might go some way to confirming their assumptions.