Member Info for Crossley

Morning Christofer,

Hope all is well. Pretty convincing hold with vote going 8-1. Let’s see where we are in November

Good post Happy, thanks

No way should you bet all on one share. Sooner or later you’re going to be locked in. Then it’s for how long……Building a position here after just completing a position in Rio Tinto. Sold down 80% of my Housebuilders stocks as I now think they’re getting a bit pricey. Won’t go into that further as it’s already been said (Christofer & Stevebt)

Hello Strictly,

It’s been quite a while since we’ve communicated. I’ve been away for a good couple of months while my mother recovers from a fall. In fact, it was the day after we upset a few on the LGen board! I do hope you are well yourself.

I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, the Vistry model. Certainly not for me. But, their SP performance certainly seems to be the envy of the sector, at the moment. I too have stepped away, mostly, from my HB position until things look more of a value play.

Morning,

Morning Finley,

Seeing as this is a partnership deal, ie building council/social housing the margins are about 10% compared to say 20% for a historic privatelysold house.

Maybe they are taking a leaf out of the Vistry book? 1 year performance here 13%. Vistry 61%?

BD,

If you download VOX and create a watchlist you get a ‘ping’ whenever there are RNS’s from your watchlist! No need to miss one again, whatever the time of release

Barratt Developments - Launch of MADE Partnership #BDEV @Barrattplc https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/41123ca6-5310-4e0b-aeb4-073893938c08 #voxmarkets undefined

Afternoon A&K,

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/is-there-more-pain-ahead-for-bhp-rio-tinto-and-fortescue-investors

Hi, here is something I thought you might find interesting: - https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/britain-needs-1-trillion-of-investment-to-start-growing-again--report-3682243

Bad, but to be expected, mostly. It’s the wider implications going forward though. HB’s margins are already under great stress without forced guidelines like this?

Strict affordable housing rules proposed by Angela Rayner will make construction projects unaffordable and derail her goal of building 1.5m homes by 2029, an executive at the UK’s biggest housebuilder has said.

The planned target, for 50pc of properties on green belt developments to be affordable, is “baffling” and risks ruining the Housing Secretary’s broader ambitions, according to Philip Barnes, land and planning director at Barratt Developments.

He said in a blog post that the company had already scrapped four planning applications since the proposal was published last month in Ms Rayner’s draft National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF)

Mr Barnes said the NPPF – which seeks to support widespread construction in the countryside – was a “great starting point” overall, but added the 50pc rule would make many sites impossible to build on by unacceptably reducing their value.

Mr Barnes said: “Landowners and housebuilders need far more confidence than that to invest hundreds of thousands of pounds promoting a scheme which is now financially underwater with a 50pc affordable housing requirement.”

Mr Barnes is urging a rethink on the 50pc provision. He emphasised that his views, which were posted on his personal blog, do not represent Barratt’s corporate position.

He added that, coupled with limits on the size of return developers can make from land, the 50pc rule would badly damage the market and could take up to a decade to remove once implemented

Afternoon all,

Hello Gary, started building a position here now, finally. May be a little early but wanted a foot in. £45.90!

Thank you Alas for your portfolio performance figures at the end of last month. I always find these things interesting.

Best of luck all here

Abject,

Take legal and general. In 2003 you could buy at 90p a share, but the price has almost tripled as the dividend has too.

That’s only half the story though isn’t it. Up to the end of 2021, yes. What about the last few painful years, whether through the new IFRS 17 regs or inflation, or a combination of the two, I’m bu**ered if I know?

With what exactly?

Well said LWHL

Not to mention the fact that mortgage lenders on BTL mortgages have a 125-140% income policy on said mortgages.

How many of these posters hold PSN shares?

So you want house prices to drop to reduce PSN’s, already meagre profit margins?

While I’m on this subject. I’ll now respond to your previous question Steve.

If PSN build 12000 houses, based on last years margins and tax payments that will realise a profit of 95.28p (after tax) per share. Based on this years payout ratio of 75% (if using 60p dividend) you’ll about get a dividend of 71.68p. You’d better hope house prices don’t drop too far!

But sensible thing to do would be get a silly mortgage.

Maybe change your handle and re-evaluate your long term goal. Even a 2% annual increase on house prices would turn your 250k home today into a 371k home in 20 years. How much will a 371k home cost to rent in 20 years time? If you can find one?

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Value

22-Aug-24 16:35:13 1,701.00 1,043 Unknown* 17.74k O

22-Aug-24 16:35:13 1,701.00 299,003 Buy* 5m UT

22-Aug-24 16:29:36 1,691.50 293 Sell* 4,956 O

22-Aug-24 16:29:56 1,689.50 30 Sell* 506.85 O

That’ll be the 30 trade sell at 16:29:56 seconds then Steve

Farewell old friend

Https://ifs.org.uk/news/wealthiest-1-would-get-half-benefit-scrapping-inheritance-tax-average-tax-cut-ps1-million

I've read with interest over the last couple of weeks comparing Persimmon's NAV of 2019 compared to now and why can't the SP return to those heady heights of the thirty something pounds?

Looking at the basic financials for 2019, PSN made a pre tax profit of 1.048b and, more importantly, a post tax profit of 848.8m, indicating a tax payment of 19%. For the year, Persimmon shifted 15855 units.

Fast forward to last years figures of 9922 units, 351.8m pre tax profit and 255.8m of post tax profits, showing a tax payment of 27.3% for the year.

So, taking last years figures, for PSN to show a return equivalent to 2019 of post tax profits, Persimmon would have to shift close to 33000 units. All things being equal. Twice the work for the same eventual gain.

It's been highlighted here many times over the past few years that PSN traded at 3X NAV due to the previous board returning over 90% of those massive profits to shareholders that influenced the share price. Those returns look impossible for the foreseeable future?

I am invested here, (along with TW for the more, as I see it, protected dividend) although it's more for the sentiment of potential interest rate cuts and Labours plan to build 1.5m homes over the coming five years rather than the financials. I've been reading with interest how the Labour government, who got elected into Australia in 2022 with the promise to build 1.2m homes over the coming years and the obstacles they've come up against and the actual cost so far. Will that get repeated over here?

For me, if this gets to 2X NAV that'll more than do for me. Happy to be proved wrong though

Afternoon Gary. Will do! I’m hoping for close to £46 tomorrow morning if things all line up! If so, this will be third venture into Rio over the last couple of years. Been waiting along time and it gets a bit twitchy when you feel it’s close doesn’t it? Best of luck going forward

So nearly re entered today.

Hoping the industrial production data out of China in the morning comes out a little worse than forecast and the looming dividend drop tomorrow? It was so hard to resist though!