Member Info for Crossley

Morning Armani

I’m wondering if BWY’s update will include the takeover of CRST after today’s announcement of the extension. If so, will we see an opening drop along with an add opportunity?

That’s the way I read it so 20.63p + 2% = 21.04p

Buybacks 200m / 5.879b shares = 3.4p per share

If they had paid the 200m of buybacks as a special instead of cancelling 90m shares and made the dividend 11.26%(24.44p in 2025) based on £2.17 s/p, whether it would have made any difference at all. I get that it shouldn’t on paper but in reality?

Https://www.persimmonhomes.com/corporate/investors/financial-calendar/

Close one but who cares. 5-4 in favour of a quarter percent drop

CRST have rejected an offer from BWY based on £2.53 a share

Bellway PLC - Response to Press Speculation #BWY https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/3b34abda-ba07-418a-b303-99d678a4f49a #voxmarkets undefined

Morning,

Well said Meconopsis. My personal annual return makes it well worth me sticking around. First purchase was a throw of the dart but since then, based on analysis, two purchases and one sale was either three pieces of luck or somethings working.

I’d be interested on the £3.50 valuation. Will you be sharing that on the blog by any chance?

Have a happy weekend all

Strictly

£2.44 @ 5.5% = 13.4p divided?

Just wandered how you’d arrived at 5.5%

Crossley

Amazing timing Meconopsis!

I started responding to Strictly, got diverted, continued post and upon posting spied your post!

Afternoon Strictly,

I thought I’d let the divi dilemma dust settle a little before responding to your post!

Firstly, a quick question please Strictly,

Your figure of 5.5% for the 2015 dividend, just to clarify, and so we are on the same page, did you use 13.4p from the LGen website, or alternative data (11.8p dividend max, etc) and how did you come to the SP value of £2.44 please if the former?

Then, hopefully, I can shed a little light on this part of your post…..

“Has the underlying performance of LGEN become steadily weaker over the past nine years in a way that may be obvious to many but not to a simple soul like me?”

While I agree the SP has suffered since the increase of inflation the data I have here that I looked at last summer suggests it’s only suffered from the end of Q1 2023.

Along with 2015, 2021 looked like a very good year for LGen. Well, it does the way I’m looking at it.

I posted a small piece earlier in the year about the effects on the SP with 1% drops in yields. It sounds from your post that you have done something similar. Did you put that up on the blog and I have missed it or was it a person to person thing?

I can respond here Strictly or directly to the blog, whichever you prefer

Crossley

David,

You should have picked up a couple of Humbergers while you were there!

No worries Delboy.

I used to do all that but wandered if the goalposts had been moved!

All additional pay over 50k into pension contributions too. A lot of the lads I worked with didn’t and claimed child benefit on top and got right stung for it. They had a right field day going thru the company did HMRC

Afternoon del boy

Good for you, don’t blame you!

Max I can do on BAYE is £150. In essence it’s getting £150 worth of shares for £90.

I always thought the schemes were income tax & NI free?

Afternoon Edd

I’ve been thinking the same. If consensus is to be believed and even if the dividend in ‘25 drops to 16p i’d be more than happy with that. A chunky 9.2% for myself. Can’t see anywhere better to put it at the moment. Going to let it ride for a good while yet as I think the SP has still more legs in it. My best performing share since buying last October by a country mile

It certainly looks to have had a positive start to Monday compared to Lgen’s peers and a negative one for PSN

Zac, thank you for your 5 year analysis figures. It made me have a good look at my personal performance of LGen. Not only performance, but also dividend re-investment and the impact of re-investing at a time of my choice compared to day after prices. Thank you for that

Morning all & good morning Zac

Zac, May I ask how you’ve arrived at the 39% over five years please? If you care to elaborate

Https://news.sky.com/story/ftse-100-housebuilder-persimmon-weighs-1631bn-bid-for-rival-cala-13142797

With core CPI only coming down half as much as expected, 3.9% against a projected 3.6% from 4.2%, we’re back to another piece of data that shows Lgen’s sensitivity to Inflation as discussed at the start of this thread?

Afternoon MD

Possibly, with a rate cut or two. But look what a one percent yield drop does to the SP here,

£2.51 + 8.22%= 20.63p

Drop that 1% to 7.22% and your up over £2.85. Another 1% drop and your over £3.31. That is in my option while the SP has been so suppressed since the end of 2022. Once the rates are not there in bonds anymore the sp will recover here. So long as dividend can be maintained? In fact, looking at the sp in relation to the ftse values between the start of 2014 and end of 2021 working with a beta of one the sp should be between £2.90 and £3.37 with the ftse sitting where it is. I can only put this down to inflation and subsequently rate returns? Just my opinion but I’m sticking with it

Have a great afternoon

Afternoon,

I noticed LGen had a nice tick up (5-6p) when the data came out for Payrolls, Hourly earnings & unemployment rates from the states last week indicating rate cuts and again today when the CPI data was released at 1:30pm. Roll on rate cuts actually materialising for true fair value to return here