Member Info for Crossley

FFS,

Now I’m a PETS sandwich. I’m at a five year low. Good night!

Moniman,

Any views on Persimmon though? That’s what we are all here for after all

4th on the FTSE performance table. Target price matches my amount of posts. Sold my Rolls shares way too early, as couldn’t see the MCap returning to its all time high and beyond. Lesson learned!

Nonefarm payrolls up over the pond

Gary,

Maybe the Chinese will hold her to ransom for the next 4.5 years. Keir will sack A Rayner and give the position to Jennie from this block. Not sure what it might do for TW’s SP but it might save the sector?

Sunbeam,

Please, please correct this sentence…..

chancellor who does have a clue

Duplicate entries occur when diverging broker ratings or prices are made between different brokers on the same day or after the last closing price?

So, it’s just assessing what various brokers say and making predictions on those?

Steve,

Thanks for the response, it’s most helpful. Would you know what these are called or more specific, the cost per unit by any chance? Is the price comparable to a combi?…..

The new spec for heating is already out in some of the houses and it still looks like a combi boiler system but it’s more environmental on reusing water.

Will these definitely pass the new future home standards regs, that haven’t been published yet. I believe they’re due March. You may know better, and I guess, know what they might stipulate? I’m guessing PSN think they will pass the standards?

Im big into this at the moment as I worry, it could squeeze the margins even more than they have these last few years. 11000 heat pumps compared to combi’s would have been a potential multi million pound problem, that would need to be mitigated. Also, Persimmon haven’t had to increase their asking prices?

I see you’ve posted over on Wimps. Are you considering?

Is Christofer still knocking about here. Hope he’s all ok?

Morning Stevebt,

It’s been a while since we had direct contact. Hope yourself and your family are well, had a good Christmas & New Year. Steve,I thought you’d be the most informed to ask these questions, if you might know, and don’t mind? How is work on site, are Persimmon selling well still in your area, and, might you know by any chance, are sales more to affordable or private sales of late? Also, I know the Future Homes Standard (FHS) are set to come in this year. Might you also know, are Persimmon shifting to fitting heat pumps over gas boilers already, and if so, has this shown an increase to the selling prices. Or are PSN trying to mitigate the costs if they have already started to move over? I was talking to a chap yesterday who says they’ve added 20k to their three bed semis they sell due to the new regs, although, they are a much smaller firm. Just wandered if it’s a similar story for Persimmon?

All the best for 2025 mate, hope your investments pay off

Dimi,

The payout ratio is 137%.

Where on earth have you picked that up from?

Morning WW,

Don’t forget the last bit…..

We now expect to end the year with net cash** of c.£500 million, subject to the timing of land purchases in the remainder of the year.

Good to hear. Thanks again

Hello R1tez,

Wow that’s some increase. Thanks for sharing. How is work at the moment, if you don’t mind me asking?

Best of luck for this year

Gary,

While I’m here. I’m not sure if this might have a bearing on things. Maybe one of the lads here that works in the industry may know more? I’ve not heard any mention of it but, in 2021, I built quite a large extension on our home. I looked into getting a ASHP. Thankfully, the price I was quoted of £12000, just for the pump alone, put me right off. In 2025, the new Future Homes Standards are set to come in, where new builds will have to have a heat pump installed instead of a gas boiler. Might this have implications on the builders margins? Housebuilders are not allowed the grant of £7500 that home owners are. I can’t see how they could pass this cost on by increasing the asking price?

Morning Gary,

Yes, I know. I ended up joining Strictly’s private blog. It makes for very interesting reading. Some very knowledgeable people on there. Our paths seem to cross quite regularly! You too mate, have a great 2025, all the best, and happy new year to you and yours too

Morning Gary,

It seems so long ago when both yourself and I were badgering Strictly for his vast knowledge of the sector back in the summer of ‘22. Where has that time gone?

Back then, the builders were struggling with rising mortgage rates and nobody was going to buy a house or home for what they claimed, would be many years to come. Then along came Truss, and the time to buy presented itself. This time, to me at least, it looks slightly different? I’ve used a similar analogy elsewhere but have adapted for Wimps. Back in 2021 TW’s tax liabilities were 18.3%. In 2022, thanks to Mickey boy Gove, it rose to 22.3%. Then last year, with the increase in corporation tax the figure was 26.3%. It doesn’t sound too bad if you say it quick does it? But on 2022’s profits of 828m it’s a cool 66 million, in extra tax, compared to 2021. That’s if Wimps can get back to those heady profits. It may take a while. I believe last year, Wimps put 88 million aside for fire safety costs. That’s something to keep an eye on? Looking at TW’s figures between 2022 & 2023, in 2023, TW sold 10848 homes, with a take home pay of 349 million pounds. In 2022, they built 14154 homes for 643m. As a reference, Taylor Wimpey would need to build and sell just over 20000 homes for the same amount of net profit, compared to that 2022 figure of just over 14k. That’s quite an alarming comparison?

Back to your question. Last year Wimps paid out, about 346.5 million in dividends, so that’s close to all their profit, last year. I believe, and you might want to check this, Wimps’s dividend policy is slightly different to the rest of the sector. They pay 7.5% of net assets. So, to drop the dividend, they may have to drop their assets worth.Thats if TW would feel they need too? I don’t believe this will be approached until the end of February update. Having said all that, I still believe, here & Bellway are best positioned to recover first. All just my views though Gary, best of luck and I’ll give you a shout when I pull the trigger this time, into either one or both. Deja vu Rio Tinto?

Whether Mr Bricks reads this and has a view?…..

Apologies, Strike!

Chatroom,

If you look at the November updates between ‘23 & ‘24, you will see that the short term land bank has dropped from 82k to 79k plots. Likewise, the strategic land pipeline has decreased from 140k plots to 136k plots. So, over the 12 months that’s 7000 plots less. Although, this is an extract from the 11/24 update. So if they’ve bought since, then they may have been replenished. Although net year end cash may have been affected if so?….

During the year we have been active and opportunistic in reviewing land opportunities and in the weeks leading up to the recent Budget we saw a number of attractive opportunities. As a result, our year to date approvals are c.11k plots (2023: c.3k plots). We now expect to end the year with net cash** of c.£500 million, subject to the timing of land purchases in the remainder of the year.

Some, in fact all, HB’s balance sheets are fairing worse than TW. In my eyes anyway

Afternoon,

I see the shorts have increased on Crst & VTY too. As the reporting season kicks off on the 14th over at PSN, the VTY the day after, then here that day after that, maybe they expect poor updates? It’s not the unit figures (homes sold) that worries me, but the profit margins. It seems to me that most of the HB’s are burning through cash and not fully replacing the land bank?

I’d imagine 215 besides this one. They will be back tomorrow, under a different account, after this one has been deleted