Member Info for Crossley

Morning Persimmoners,

Hope you’ve had a great Christmas & new year period.

Hello OracleOO,

I don’t like to get into the political views and opinions on these boards. I am interested in your position here though, and within the sector.

I’m currently sitting on the sides after gradually exiting the sector last year and looking for my way back in. I’ll be waiting until the updates begin, kicking off with PSN on the 14th of this month. Having had a quick look at your history, it looks like you are in CRST, TW & here, and also avoiding VTY. May I ask why those choices, rather than any of the other HB’s, if you have an opinion?

Best of luck for 2025, and best of luck all

Account will be deleted by tomorrow. Used a different one yesterday. Boring

Afternoon Hellyeah,

Thanks for taking the time to respond and sharing your views. Nice balance and good diversification in that lot. As a man of leisure for this last five odd years, I tend to stick to the big boys and shy away from aim if I can. Some points you mentioned, I do keep tabs on Just. I agree with you on the travel sector and have holdings in IAG & EZJ. I tend to hop over to the LGen board on or around New Years Day, and have a chat with a few who like to sum up their portfolio’s for the year and more importantly, where they think 2025 will go. I’m telling you this as there is a chap over there who has spent the last few years reducing his individual shares and moving into solely funds. Hoping the discussion continues this year as it has the last few with some interesting views

Morning hellyeah,

I do hope you’re having a great Christmas.

Maybe you’d like to expand on the part of your post I found of most interest? That being,

I have a few other 2025 picks of quality UK stocks.

A brief synopsis as to why always helps?

I’m not a trader. I just want to put a balanced argument over. Balanced based on figures and the rest of the sector. If I can help one person from making a mistake it would be worth it. Each to their own though. Oh, I did post that this might happen on November the 19th @ 11.28am.

The post ended like this, and when they state this, as they surely will, then what might happen?

From the mouth of Greg himself…£1bn capital return to shareholders over three years.” Not happening.

I really don’t want to see anyone lose money. Absolutely no benefit to me whatsoever

3 profits warnings in a year. Isnt that a stock market record?

3 in three months Johnjo. Give them a year and they may have more than Crest did, but not yet

But, it isn’t the unit sales that are the problem. It’s the profit margins. Vistry are on to sell more houses than ever right? I thought Vistry’s model was to shift more houses at lower margins? If the likes of Bellway & Persimmon, are all burning through cash, when selling more units, at the rate they are, how can Vistry’s model work? Icecool. Get a new calculator. The MCap is down £382m this morning

People on this site were saying it was overdone when it dropped to £9. Then again to £7.

It’s still expensive, on paper, against Bellway on tangible assets.

Let’s hope Vistry doesn’t do a Crest. A few more profit warnings, like Crest have done, (not saying it definitely will, but if it does?). Crest’s book value is currently sitting at 0.52. That equates to a SP here of £3.27. Best of luck. Hope you don’t get anymore surprises in the new year

That will need a massive shift in profit margins for Housebuilders. When they’re predicted to get squeezed even more in 2025 and into 2026. Be careful

Expecting Vistry to take a hit (again) this morning.

What effect on the rest of the sector?

Will this be in the fives this morning?

8th on the FTSE 100 performance chart today

Meagz,

I worked in the airline industry for 35 years (RR). I’ve been increasing my holding in IAG quite rapidly over the last few months. The share price looks so strong at the moment. If there is any recovery in the FTSE I can see that kicking on past £3.20 quite quickly. I think it may be the darling of the FTSE in H1 next year?

Good post Andy. I would have said something similar myself. Just being in one share you’re pretty much playing roulette. The beauty of diversification, I believe, also frees you a little of the feeling of being trapped in a share when you are down. You can offset a loss against a gain to some extent, or at least the feeling of. It also allows you to bring other economies into the portfolio too. Whereas, with PSN, it’s all UK based, while Rio, as you say, is geared more around the Chinese economy. I’ll be increasing my holding there myself if it drops between 1% & 2% more. Been holding LGen for a number of years for the almost, guaranteed, 9% dividend with little stress, although all the insurance sector are paying huge dividends (MNG, PHNX).

Having said that, having watched and being in this sector for quite a number of years now, the low of the share price always seems to come before the darkest days during a particular cycle.

Best of luck Christofer, with whatever you do

Hello guys,

Christopher, I hope it all works out for you mate.

Do any of you guys look at other Housebuilders updates?

It’s not the unit sales that’s the issue. It’s the profit margins. They’ve been dropping and as far as I can see, they are continuing to do so.

Look what Berkeley said a few weeks ago with their projected profits for 2025 & 2026, and also Barratt’s update the other day.

Well,

With the best performer on the FTSE gaining less than 1% I’d say that was a pretty good day, considering

Morning botbot,

Looks right. I can only imagine the 8.6 million discrepancy was the figure that was not taken up as an option in the 3 more for 2 already owned from the RI offer? (1.992/2X5= 4.98) Even with these figures £7 in ‘old money’ is still £2.804 today.

Share price holding up well in my eyes

While I’m here.

Don’t let that make you think this is now looks expensive. The sum of the parts are of far more value than they used to be. Much more streamlined. The same equation run for Rolls. Rolls should never have passed £2.91 to be as valuable as they’d ever been. Now look!

MSM,

Completely different company now. The long term share price graphs have been re-adjusted to take the additional shares into account. For example, Rolls Royce share price was £12.91 at the end of 2013. But you’ll not find that anywhere. But, to answer your question it’s only £2.80. The RI was 3 new shares for 2 already held. So there was initially around 1.95b shares in issue, 1.95/2X5 =4.875

So, if you’re talking £7, 7 X 1.95 =13.65 (MCap) / 4.875(shares now) = £2.80.

Anyway, onwards and upwards, Jefferies have just upped their forecast from £2.70 to £3.50

Tom,

The Core, the most relevant of the CPI data came in lower than anticipated this morning. Still up, but lower than expected. Giving the futures a shot in the arm. The index sat at 8245 just before release