Member Info for Crossley

Hello Johnjo,

Hope you’re well. Consensus for CPI is to rise to 2.6%

Core (which I take more notice of) is expected to come in at 3.6%. Still waiting on this sector, more value to come in my eyes

Totally agree with that Steve

Https://www.business-live.co.uk/enterprise/persimmon-chief-warns-billions-extra-30594746

Trump said he would drop the tax to 15% back in September as part of his election campaign. There were a lot of conditions tied to this too, including only companies that solely manufactured in the US. I doubt the country could afford this due to their ever expanding debt levels

Under 10% now

IAG was always projected to rise earlier though?

Moved out of BP and topped up in IAG 8 weeks ago @ £1.91 due to oil price predictions. Also increased my average. Eventually I foresee it all to be in here. Only my view though. I believe 2025 will be a good year for EZJ. Time to catch up some of the 62% on the yearly chart.

Best of luck all holders. I’m optimistic

Added here on results @ £5.48. Two weeks ago. Could have waited an hour for another 2 odd percent. Increased my average but see plenty of room for 2025. Hardly a brick wall

Mickykay:

roll up there sleeves and start laying a few bricks.

That’s one of the problems though. Just one of! The UK is the largest manufacturer of bricks in Europe. 2 billion a year. Just managed that figure in 2018 & ‘19. If you take the average house, a three bed semi, that’s enough to build approximately 167000 homes. If they were all 4 beds that figure would drop to 145k for reference. France & Germany’s housing requirements are more severe than our own. So, if we all start chucking up houses, all over Europe, then wont there surely be, a shortage of supplies. Then what happens. Cost inflation due to shortages. Just like after the pandemic. I can tell you that from experience, bricks doubled in price. Lath tripled. You couldn’t even get roof tiles. More materials sourced from imports etc. don't worry about the net zero thing for a bit, quite literally, put it on the back burner.

I’m sure Keir has it all worked out though. If not Keir, Angela will be on it. I’m sure they know what they are doing and have a very convincing plan

Nothing wrong with that philosophy thegame. I’ve loved this sector for the last few years, since a week or two after Liz Truss’s budget and made some great returns. I have taken all but around 7% out over the past few months. Looking to reenter myself but biding my time a little longer yet. I’d be interested in your other two preferred choices if your willing to expand?

Best of luck going forward

Hi,

By my reckoning, between the beginning of the first tranche, and the end of the third and final tranche, so over 18 months, the ‘PRU’ should have returned around 87p to shareholders, with 65-66p, depending, obviously, on the future buyback prices. The rest made up of the last interim and next years 16.56p, if that remains constant

November’s update:

During the year we have been active and opportunistic in reviewing land opportunities and in the weeks leading up to the recent Budget we saw a number of attractive opportunities. As a result, our year to date approvals are c.11k plots (2023: c.3k plots). We now expect to end the year with net cash** of c.£500 million, subject to the timing of land purchases in the remainder of the year.

Just to put some figures to the multiples

Debtors:VTY 626m TW 124m BWY 76m

Total fixed assets:YTY 1.94b TW 194m BWY 88m

Investments: VTY 562m TW 70m BWY 10m

Morning Johnjo, hello 2227.

Can I start by saying, I really like Vistry’s model. Looks like the perfect timing, what with what the government are saying they might achieve. So long as Vistry can meet the margins they claim they can.

I’ve been trying to value Vistry, and crossed referenced against Bellway & TW’s balance sheets.

There’s a few things I’m struggling with. Asset wise, BWY & VTY are roughly the same size, Wimps are 36% larger. So that needs to be factored in.

Tangible assets are fine. Cash good, better than Bellway, not in the same area as Wimps. Stocks are a little low, compared to the other two.

The three main areas I’m looking at are:

debtors, why has Vistry got 8 times the amount of Bellway, and 5 times more than Wimps on their books.

Total fixed assets, 10 X’s that of Wimps, & 22 that of BWY

Investments, 8 times Wimps & 55 times more than BWY.

There’s one more area of concern that I’ll come back to if you can help with these, that being my largest worry. I don’t profess to totally understanding the business model here and hope there’s some logical explanation for the differences. As you guys know, these are all classed as assets on the books. Vistry’s just looks completely different to the other two. All links can be provided if required. All taken from year end 2023.

Hope your having a good weekend

Hello Johnjo,

Firstly, thank you for responding to me the other day, and for taking your time to do so. It’s always appreciated. I didn’t reply, as I know you’re very pro Vistry, I wish you the best of luck here. It’s not for me though. The fundamentals, ie, assets don’t add up.

Anyway,

PSN 14/1

TW 16/1

Crst 21/1

Bwy 11/2

Barratt 12/2.

I shall be looking to re-enter the sector at some point.

Have a great weekend and best of luck! Take care

James,

Thank you for taking the time to answer. It’s much appreciated. This year, has been a bit of a tough one. Due to a family illness I’ve had to take a bit of a sabbatical, added to the fact I’ve not been too switched on with the portfolio due to this. The PRU seems to have taken a back seat as I catch up on more pressing sectors, as this, I expected to be a slow burner. First jumped in right at the start of this year, followed by a doubling of my holding when just over £6. So sitting around a £7.23 average. My plan, I always expected this to be up to a three year timeline.

Your response more than answer my queries. I’ll recheck my figures tomorrow, although that seems to suggest a 70 odd pence return to shareholders over the twelve months, obviously depending on the share price in the immediate term.

Again, many thanks. Have the best of evenings

Hello,

For someone that pays closer attention than myself on this one.

First tranche completed, US 700m. 81.4m shares purchased and cancelled.

Second tranche underway. To be completed one year after the first began. US 800m. Projected around 95.6m shares to be purchased and cancelled

Dividend still projected to be 16.56p in 2025 at this point.

Are all these facts?

By my reckoning, if the share price remained consistent throughout the buyback, the SP should increase by 24.4p? Hoping for less to be fair

This beauty has been number 1 in my performance chart pretty much all year. Another 2.2% to double your money for 2024

Hello Nomad,

Looks like you’ve been here about a year?

I made my initial ‘punt’ here in mid 2021 @ £2.42. Doubled that in October ‘22 @ £2.08. One small average down. All in all, as of close yesterday that amounts to 16.79% per annum, based on an average holding time of 145.5 weeks. Dividends not re-invested, although that would be the wise choice. Hope that’s of some comfort! I have no complaints whatsoever. In fact, by my calculations, and working with a beta of one, where the SP stood between the start of 2014 & the start of 2022 this should be a minimum of £2.87, top end (2015) £3.32, judging by where the FTSE stands today. One day, it surely must re-rate. Definitely one of the least stressful investments, particularly for income. Enjoy!

Nomad1

If you click on the little arrow under the name of any share on investing.com you have in your watchlist, it drops down to all available indices if unaware