Member Info for Crossley

FTSE up, and still flying up. HB’s went with it. Sector starting dropping after 9am

Luckylurker,

You keep thumping that tub mate!

About £13.04, to make 90th!

https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Numbers in line with last year. 255 less, 173 of these were affordable. Didn’t buy the land I expected them too. Will need to replenish more going forward. Listened to Vistry’s update yesterday. They said they expected land prices to soften in 2025. May be a good thing? While selling prices fell a little, there’s no mention of incentives. Net profit should be about 33m (excluding exceptional items) short of paying last years full dividend, but with 565m (-113m) in the bank it should be safe. Forward order book up 12.5% in monetary value, its only a 4.5% increase in units, looks like they are getting further away from affordable housing.

Was hoping for a few more completions if I’m honest but still a solid update to my eyes. Business looks in a good place. Let’s hope the market is encouraged.

Nathan,

I know the analysts have been a bit subdued on Wimps lately, I am personally expecting them to beat expectations. For me, I’d rather they went down the route of margins over volume. Looking forward to tomorrow’s update. I believe it’ll be a rocky road, once we get to April, and beyond and will re assess my position then. Re entered yesterday, late on, after taking a break some months ago. My £1.55’s are back in at £1.092, along with another punt on Bellway, a few moments later

Svend,

Thanks for that & taking the time and effort to respond. Much appreciated

Hello Svend, good afternoon,

Can you provide the link please? Cannot seem to find. Have had a look on zoom and put the ID number in, although it says expired?

Not sure about the longer term prospects. They’ll certainly get tougher come April and as we move into the summer months, when it bites. Inflation will probably rise. Rate cuts will more than likely, be pushed back towards the end of the year. Short term, I’ve a feeling the US CPI and US Core CPI at 1:30 this afternoon might come in lower than anticipated. PPI was down yesterday. Bond rates have dropped a bit from coming into yesterday’s close when they hit 4.96%, in the UK.

If it does, it should give another boost this afternoon? We shall see

Sunbeams7,

I was only pulling your leg mate. I know what you’re saying. She has got a stay of execution today, and may get another at 1:30pm when the states give their inflation data. Expecting that to come in lower than anticipated

I listened in. Although I missed the first 10 minutes. Did they chat about the first two profit warnings in more detail in that time? Didn’t get the chance to ask my questions. I was itching for Greg to explain more about the three profit warnings. He was certainly chucking his four buckets about trying to explain that last 50 million write down on Christmas Eve. Looking to cash for this year and little growth. 5% build inflation and more on some sights. The 800m return sounds like it’s going to get kicked down the years a bit? I’m still no nearer an explanation, after chopping the 105m overspend from the figures how you can go from 325m for just over 18000 units to 145m from 17200. Where did that profit margin, per unit, disappear to?

Morning Greg,

Greg, prior to the profit warning, Vistry declared they’d achieve a profit of 430m and deliver in excess of 18k homes. I appreciate that the southern division had a knock of 105m but, in November you stayed you’d downgraded your year end sales to 17.5k sales and 300m profit. I can see you delivered 17200 units. May I ask, where has that other 50 million pounds gone for the 300 units less delivered? After all, if we knock the 105m overspend off, that leaves 145m for 17200 units, which gives us an average profit of £8430 per unit sold?

Cheers

2.5, 3.2. It’s early!

CPI down to 2.4

Core down to 3.2. Should be a positive start

Re think of how to modernize the business, instead of being a follow the herd they need to be disrupters, massive corporate change in their planning and execution?

I thought this is exactly what they did in September 2023. Moved away from the ‘standard’ approach of the traditional Housebuilder and into the partnership model and up front, agreed sale prices. It’s if this model can work in the future? They’ve certainly seemed to be caught out with the sticky build cost inflation that all HB’s have had to endure, for longer than expected, but, without the luxury of hindsight that the rest of the sector has been afforded. I notice that PSN only today, declared the average increase of 5% in average blended sales prices. Some way to elevate the build costs. Something that’s not the case with Vistry. Although, still some serious explanations needed from Greg tomorrow

Uk CPI 2.6 (previous) 2.6 expected

Uk Core CPI 3.5, 3.4

US core CPI 3.3, 3.3

Tomorrow 7am

Vistry update, although Vistry has a different business model it’s still a HB. Some serious questions for Greg to address there

Uk core CPI (prefer this as the energy prices are excluded. Gives a better generalisation of what’s happening)

13:30 US core CPI

Thursday 7am, Taylor Wimpey update

Pavriko,

The auction usually runs from 7:50 until 8am. Usually gets extended by five minutes, to establish a price, then, back to normal trading at 8:05am. Rarely get a second five minutes after that, but can. It’s a bit of a con. Panic buying and they take full advantage. Ironically, the last time Persimmon opened in auction was this time last year. While in auction, the shares were trading around the £14.30- £14.35 mark. By 8:15am they were back down to the low £14, high £13 mark. This time, a similar outcome, traded up to £11.34. Slipped back to low £11’s. The moral is, they can charge you what they like, up to your set limit. People always push that limit up a little higher so they can guarantee to get a few. Always best to wait until out of auction.

Above!

Auction?

Could open £11

That’s the best set of figures I’ve read from PSN for some time. Looks like they’ve reversed most of what I said here all those months ago. Land replenished, cash should cover the dividend, an extra 90m in the bank to what the analysts suggested, and moving back to private sales. Looks good.

On other HB news, see CRST have put their year end back and added an extra 100m to their remediation figure this am.