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IAG share buyback made hardly any difference physically. By the time they’ve completed the €350 current buyback program it will have made a physical difference of about 6.5p to the SP. Whether sentimentally it’s made a difference. Well that’s a personal opinion. I’m sticking with what I said on release date. The remaining 3/4 of this years profits was, for me at least, very underwhelming.

Read PSN’s last update again. I cannot work out how they pulled off what they did?

Bellway’s update by comparison, looks poor. Units up, average selling price up, dividend down. Haven’t replaced the land they’ve built on and net cash down 85m. If they had replaced the land it would have cost another 235m.

Fair play Persimmon

Hilarious you two,

Maybe if you get a bag of marching powder between you, you can get this forum up to 200 posts a day

Morning,

IAG, can I ask a favour? Can you provide the link to this full report please…..

“While valuation does not seem overly expensive in terms of headline numbers, we no longer see a good enough risk-adjusted return for a buy rating," analysts at Goldman said in a research note.

Goldman projects for IAG an earnings before interest and tax margin of 14% in 2025, which compares to a 2014 to 2019 average of 12%, and has only been surpassed in 2015.

On this basis its 2025 Ebit estimate of EUR4.5 billion is in line with consensus. But unlike a year ago "we are not convinced the company can now durably and materially beat these higher expectations," Goldman said.

Having worked for Rolls for 35 years IAG. I think I know that. I wasn’t comparing the two businesses, I was using the MCap as an example, and as to why, historically, it can create, a potential false ceiling. Anyway, I can’t be ar**d with this….

Thirteen trading days….

Of course not, not indefinitely.

Why are you so obsessed with MCap, IAG? As I’ve said before, if you’d have taken RR’s MCap, historically, into consideration, you would have been forced to sell, well before it got to 3 quid.

GS said this. JP Morgan said something completely different with their update to £5, and potentially 7 euros moving forward.

They expect EBIT to improve from 3.5 billion to 4.85 b. That’s a 38.5% increase. We shall find out in fourteen days time…….

I take it you didn’t actually read the update IAG?

Here’s an extract…….

While Goldman Sachs acknowledges that IAG’s valuation remains reasonable—trading at seven times its projected earnings per share and offering a free cash flow yield of 10% for 2025—the brokerage no longer sees enough upside to maintain a bullish stance.

The analysts set a revised 12-month price target of 375 pence per share, up from 300 pence, reflecting improved financial performance but a more balanced risk-reward profile.

Goldman Sachs also pointed to the broader trading environment, which remains highly favorable for airlines. Factors such as constrained capacity on North Atlantic routes, strong demand for premium travel, and lower year-on-year jet fuel costs have created an ideal setting for IAG.

While the analysts acknowledge the possibility of further near-term earnings surprises, it remains cautious about the long-term sustainability of these gains, particularly given the cyclical nature of the airline industry.

The only thing I will say about GS’s ‘update’.

Is their timing of the release. Knocking it from a buy, which it would have been two or three weeks ago, to a hold when the price reached £3.66. You could look at that as a slight form of attempted manipulation, if they waited for the SP to get close to their target. It’ll all be forgotten, hopefully, tomorrow

A "neutral" stock recommendation is considered a "hold," meaning that the analyst believes there is no strong reason to either buy or sell the stock, expecting it to perform roughly in line with the market overall;

But they only dropped their recommendation to a hold from buy. And increased their price target from £3 to £3.75

That was an interesting Sunday read, thanks for posting.

Looking at the graphs, they have operating profits of around 4.2 billion and a margin of 12.5% ish for IAG. I was having a play with Deutsche Bank's figures when they upgraded IAG to £4 back in December, if I've worked them out right that should give basic earnings per share of €0.639, when published on the 28th, (2023: €0.538). That looks top end on average consensus.

They upped op profits from 3.5 to 4.1 billion and margins up from 11.9 to 13.1%. That 13% is all important.

I'm personally, not really interested in the dividend. I'd like to see debt down, or projected to be down, to around 3.5b, increase the bayback program to 500m, and figures from Deutsche to materialise.

I still cannot see why IAG is priced at a lower P/E than the likes of EZJ @8.8, etc?

Sector peer average, according to investing.com is 9.5.

Sector average would propel the S/P here

Looks in auction

Morning Ben,

I’ve noticed you’ve said this before, about the bricks anyway. Is it across all trades if you’d know Ben, or just the bricks?

Certainly bought a lot of those HMT shares back over the last twelve months. Is it 25 and 1/2%?

I see JP Morgan sees dividends in 2026 around 29.5p with 50% instead of 40% of attributable earnings, once the HMT thing is sorted, returned to share holders. I’m holding

I haven't been lucky enough to see that anywhere else in all the years I've been trading... .

AIM I usually avoid. Haven’t touched anything since the covid days, with NCYT. Made an exception for this one. I’m normally FTSE 250 only

Thanks, I’ll have a dig about over the weekend and come back if anything of worth. Have a great weekend. Monday’s ages away!

Ripped from my trading platform, so maybe?

Hawkwood 62.1m shares

First Equity 25.65m

Premier Miton 11.6m

Always the case Takayama,

Is my last post still relevant might you know? Best of luck for next week….

Important rest of the day now from my experience. Let’s see some strength through the day, and push on past £2.60 into the weekend…..