RE: How high do you think this can go?1 Feb 2021 11:12
Thanks Tarquin
You’ve made the depth of your analysis clear.
As it happens, based on all the RNS data for mine at 8.5yr LOM using the rather bullish sale price of 630 dollar per tonne vs a cost to produce at 430 dollar per tonne the IRR for the project is calculated and communicated in the RNS list somewhere however I replicated and looked at a 10% discount rate etc
The takeaway from this exercise (and bear in mind it’s only for the Mali lithium project - not gold) is that the IRR I got at 38% was still viable but clearly at this stage the fundamental assumption to get there (sale price which is way above spot and cost to produce which may actually turn out accurate but we don’t know) that a fully realised value could be 0.9p.
Based on a take over value (if JORC is firmed up - which is has never seemed that KOD is looking to do but may change) of circa 40% of fully reusable value that would be 0.36p which would be quite the stretch due to what I feel are less than solid fundamentals at this stage therefore my view was that 0.25 would be amazing (not for LTH who didn’t average down but definitely for latecomers to the “party”) - personally I would be surprised if we got there but feel it’s a more realistic target based on crunching the numbers.
Anyhow real life beckons so make of that what you will and as always folks GLALTH and DYOR