Member Info for cringsing

@pointscorer:
Greenback deval, I agree
Sterling recovery, not so much.
Brexit priced in, well the market only knows what we know, so yes a risk premium is priced in but not a material downturn imho.

Other than for Woodford, I recon most institutional investors have left Kier as it’s an unnecessary risk to take. Good for day punters though as buoyancy is good. I prefer small’ish miners for volatility though. They tend not to go broke all the sudden. Construction, well it’s building up a bit of a bad rep in that respect....

Oh, you think all the foreign investors are ignorant to ALL their share holdings in UK shares have lost them near 30% since the referendum irrespective of the SP movements, but only due to the drop in sterling, and now expecting another drop in just 2 months ?

Also consider, as a USD denominated hedge fund, you can sit back and enjoy your short position as it gets cheaper by the day to cover its short positions, even WITHOUT the SP moving. They are just waiting on the expected additional 10-20% Sterling drop when we leave EU in about 2 months. Say again you don’t think Brexit matter :-))

Before you argue that foreign investors are insignificant for the market movements of the British indexes, Goldman Sachs a couple of years back did the legwork and found that half of all shares traded in FTSE100 is owned abroad.

A sale of Kier Living for £250m would help. Or an agreed extension of HS2 all the way to the Orkney islands.

If you look at the current valuation of Kier Living peers such as Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon, both have lost significant value over last 6-9 months. There is now noises suggesting work on HS2 may be cancelled. This Brexit farce can throw the entire country into all sorts of unpredicted directions. So much for ‘taking back control’.

Let me get this straight.

Despite the BoD rewarding themselves bonuses near 100% of base pay package
Despite paying out millions (they didn’t have) in dividends
Despite raking up more debt albeit fat orderbook.
Despite loosing investors 90% of their investments in the company (obliterating the value of past dividend payment)
Despite future dividends likely to fall victim on 19/9
Despite BoD probably knowing future directors bonuses may become wishful thinking
Despite Kier hoping to lend more from banks now notoriously jittery to lend any more money to a sector which has seen some of the largest crashes in the country

Holding Kier on results day ?? It’s as upside vs downside kind of game. There will (imho) inevitably be some bad news, so the question is if that will be offset by some even better good news...

https://www.building.co.uk/news/carillion-effect-takes-toll-as-banks-shy-away-from-lending/5101326.article

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/08/28/should-i-buy-shares-in-kier-group

Subsequent to a string of profit warnings and the new Group CEO taking reign, Mr Dew left Balfour early 2015 alongside a large number of other Balfour executives.
Mr Dew wasn’t the group CFO at Balfour, but a divisional FD I think.

Orderbook size doesn’t matter, but the quality does !!

When Connaught went bankrupt in 2012, they had a £2.6bn orderbook. Most of the contracts being with local government businesses. The company pleaded for an extra £50m in help from banks, which was small change for a 30.000 staff plc. The banks who was already heavily invested did their due diligence, and said no and the company folded. Connaught’s auditors were fined for poor quality auditing some 7 years later !!

http://www.facilitatemagazine.com/news/business-news/sgp-wins-with-ms/connaught-ceo-mark-tincknell-stands-down/

Debt arises from badly performing contracts. Kier is where Balfour was in 2012-2015 where profit warnings came fast one after the other. It took a new management team and the sale of numerous underperforming assets to turn the tide. As for Kier, selling a well-performing asset as Kier Living seem a bit desperate, but maybe necessary. The less good pieces left, the harder to turn the corner.

Oh, the old ‘fact or fiction’ dilemma. Anyone looking at the trades can see the Kier share trade is dominated by day trade opportunists. As ‘facts’ from Kier (and most companies) are few and far between, day-trading happens on subtle differences in the perceived narrative, which has a life on its own. Nothing is more buoyant than expectations founded in hopes and fears. Nothing wrong with hope, but never forget, it is just that. Hope !