Member Info for cringsing

Hi More4Less

Can I just ask you this. When you say “It is now evident,...” and then say Kier has adopted a bunch of very good disciplines, how is that evident ???

I know they have won orders like mad, but that (to a large extent) was the problem in the past. I appreciate you may know that they now work much smarter and I certainly hope so, but I just struggle to see what would have evidenced this. Do you etc work for or with Kier and that way have insights ? Lots of people do, and it most certainly should not be kept as a secret if they have tidied up processes :-)

Hi Rizzy,
I also got stung on Connaught. Biggest single loss I have ever suffered, but not quite as deep as yours. Well, it teaches one a bit about managing risks. Kier is a different proposition in my view. Not without risk as with any company in debt, but very different nonetheless.

A million RNS’s is of no news if no money is coming in.

With a number of different size pies in the oven, we just need to wait for the first one to be ready. (Generate revenue, and the SP will take off). The other pies presumably will follow in quick succession. Patience is a virtue....

Does anybody here know what date FY results are out ? The YGEN financial calendar just says ‘July’ but no specific date.

I’m most certainly not ruling out the 180 by close of play today. The risks to DLAR are near all but gone !! That’s worth a lot for II’s, as there is nothing but upside !!

SP suggests all is the same as yesterday. Yet, NOTHING is the same.
1) fresh money secured (easily by looks of it)
2) debt presumably eradicated soon
3) interest payments and banking covenants minimised
4) Gateshead closing with ongoing saving

The SP may be the same but looks way less like a lottery share today. I’m amazed they could get the whole lot underwritten. Massive show of confidence in my view.

That’ll take care of the debt !!
Lots of money saved at Gateshead. Another blow to the North. Had we not left EU, they’d still be printing our EU passports. I guess it inadvertently became another Brexit victim.

You are forgetting about the debt, and promises made more than a year ago to sell assets to reduce debt. It hasn’t happened yet. I do not think KIE is a no-brainer and the SP suggests the same imo.

Chaps. This may well be the last 27 minutes this share is below 200p.

Even at that price it’s a a steal, now the investigation has been called off and no further legal fees looming.

Good luck all....

In my view the score is this.

Risk/chance-takers are already long here. Some already sitting on good profits, now thinking if staying is worth the risk of tomorrow morning.

Institutional investors cannot allow themselves to take this sort of risks/chances as they buy/sell in much larger quantities, and cant put their public professional reputation at stake. I reckon there are very few of them onboard at the moment. If tomorrow’s RNS is rock solid (near-completely eliminating past risks), they will come back for the rebound play, and they will be filling their boots. If we just sit tight, it wont be cheap to fill them boots ;-)

If DLAR _DEFINITELY_ touches 300p tomorrow, the whole world would now madly be buying this one up to 280p.

That isn’t happening at the moment so I suggest your analysis is a bit off :-)

what the heart is full of ......

https://www.caxtonfx.com/business/covid-19/

Yes it’s possible I reckon. The CLBILS was first brought in offering up to £50m but as uptake was slow, gov increased it to £200m. It obviously comes with caveats. No dividends can be paid out (not a prob for Kier), and no exec bonuses can be paid either (which may be a prob for Kier as I assume there are turnaround bonuses in play). But guess there are ways to defer that and - ha ha - way to early to declare the business out of woods. I am not sure if there’d be a statutory duty to inform the market of taking on new debt, and neither am I sure if these is covenants in place with old lenders allowing the group to take on new debt. That being said, as a high level view it looks like a no-brainier, assuming no heavy chains attached.

An EY based group however seem to suggest these loans might end up as toxic, which could indicate the gov backed borrowing maybe isn’t that straight forward....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/07/36bn-of-government-backed-loans-will-be-toxic-taskforce-warns

Re debt, and how quickly a debt-laden but otherwise well-performing company can be taken over by new owners, check out the circumstances that led to the privatisation of InterServe. It’s all relatively well documented on Wikipedia. InterServe is 3x size of Kier with only half the debt as I recall

It’s not the last time we will see a takeover like that. Also, I do not no the situation re Kier loan repayments, but I do know that Kier a year ago promised market (lenders included) to dispose of a handful of assets, and as we all know that has not gone to plan.
The VERY LAST thing we want is Kier to breach banking covenants, of which there is bound to be quite a few....

Day traders paradise today, but without them we would not have seen 155p. Not to worry, buoyancy will reduce as nearing the top, and holding long will become the better game.
It couldn’t keep rising at that pace. We’d have been at £30 a share by this eve :-)

180p last week ?? Is there an issue with google finance graphs ??

Market cap in the case of Kier is not about revenue or order book. It’s all about debt.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-kie/kier-group-shares/news/these-4-measures-indicate-that-kier-group-lonkie-is-using-debt-extensively/

@Whistler,
All I needed, thank you very much....

All,
I’m new here and considering to invest.

Am I right thinking we are awaiting CE approval for 2 individual products ?
Do we know when outcome from BSI Netherlands will be known ?
Etc as whether BSI Netherlands have been operating during lockdown ?

I hope you folks don’t mind me asking...

Behave.
The financial calendar is a financial calendar. Not a Media Release Calendar.

Feel free to get up early on 30/6. Just don't expect me to join you. Your first sight of 19/20 financials will be prelim on 17/9 whether you like it or not !! It’s called prelim for a reason...