Member Info for cringsing

Listen mate. There are 160m Kier shares in circulation. Readers and posters here may hold 1-2m between them all. Thinking that anything said here, which is nothing but opinions, will move the SP I will suggest is wishful thinking. If it literally DID work, there would be thousands of posters here, and the SP would be £20 ;-))

U.K. Services Unexpectedly Shrink Under Weight of Brexit Fears https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-03/uk-services-contract

@Mostlyharmless,
Some 13 years ago, Fannie & Freddie started to fiddle a bit with mortgage bonds underpinning US housing industry. Just a bit of tinkering with the mechanism that funded construction work in US. The instability it introduced to the global financial market took 31% off the FTSE100 and lead to 10 years of declared austerity in UK.

Brexit hasn’t remotely happened yet. Most industries are already gearing down, stockpiling, refraining to sign new contracts and so. But that’s not Brexit. That’s just adverse effects of the planning. This show haven’t even started :-))

Rest assured, almost nobody 13 years ago thought that a bit of financial tinkering in US would lead to near global meltdown. Some did though, and made a LOT of money....

I’m happy for you to ignore the tidal-wave of warnings now issued by almost every publicly listed company in their Trading Statements. I mean, what do they know about running a business ;-)

Today’s drop just crazy (-10.3% at mo) Surely GRG will be on top-10 risers tomorrow. Other than the usual Brexit warning, everything else in update is good news imo.

I agree with my2penneth. One big slip, and it’s curtains for Kier.
My view is the BoD is executing a sensible plan, and if no hiccups there is plenty of chance Kier will recover and in time become prosperous again. If, however, the KL sale doesn’t bring in adequate funding to dent the debt, or worse if Brexit throws a spanner in the works, l’ll say all bets on Kier is off.

But what could possibly go wrong with Brexit, other than EU building materials getting stuck in customs, non-UK Kier employees suddenly not allowed to work in UK, joint venture work on projects with EU partners grinding to a halt, UK govt halting or cancelling investments to redirect money to other worse affected sectors, or any mix of these and 50’ish other unnamed Brexit-induces adverse effects.

Well, 17.4m Britons decided these risks are worthwhile... Thank God we have Boris who has already pledged £100bn to all sorts of other things. He will sort it all out !!!

A lot of smaller PI’s with an appetite for bouncy shares were taught a lesson re gambling on debt-laden companies this Monday morning when TCG folded. Kier isn’t another TCG, but it is a low margin business with quite a bit of debt, which is a problem disturbingly similar to that of TCG. I know what you are suggesting re the sale of KL, but think they need the cash (desperately) to lower the debt. Debt is cheap at the moment, but that wont last forever.....

Main 3 issues with Kier are these.
Debt
Debt
Debt

The risk significantly went down yesterday imo. Also, the next significant piece of material news we are likely to get, is that of the Kier Living sale, which I reckon will be received well by market.
If the rumoured KL management buyout (presumably backed by PE) ends up happening, I’d say that’d be close to a perfect outcome. So the Kier share looks a lot prettier today than Wednesday. Still a high-risk buy, but many times less risky than that of TCG etc.

@Auson,
The KL team may have PE backing. KL undoubtedly have more value as a going concern than swallowed up by another UK builder, making it a PE turnkey opportunity.. that would be good news...

I am out enjoying the sunshine :-)

I’m not negative on KIE, and may well buy in the first couple of minutes tomorrow morning. I will however buy on the RNS itself, and not on the hope of a good RNS. I think that’s where I differ from some holders here.

It’s very quiet here today.

A shame that nothing re alleged bids for Living has been substantiated today, but still good news as it suggest that at least one party, but possibly more, have shown interest.

I’m not trading own money, so can’t take the risk being long in Kier at this point, but best of luck to those who dares...

@lemmink
I appreciate your enthusiasm, but was wondering if that’s investing or gambling? I’d suggest it leans towards the latter..... unless of course, you happen to have some insights of what will happen on Thursday....

Good luck all the same....

@kenj,

Yes in theory the shorter’s must reacquire the amount of borrowed shares, but I have some doubts that always happened.
I was long in Ocado back in the day where they were the most shorted share on London Stock Exchange, and the SP were about 48p (now near £14). The shorted shares were equivalent to about 20 trading days of average trading volumes. I was meticulously keeping tabs on the trading volumes, and noticed no diff at all in trading volumes after some of the largest hedge funds declared they had closed their positions. I reported it to the FCA which was an entire waste of time. Even on first call to FCA, it was evident that had better things to do. This is some years back, so things might have improved.

In reality, I reckon hedge funds at times simply compensates the lender (of shares) in cash in lieu of shares.

Put yourself in a shorter’s seat. You have a short pos on Kier. The share price rather randomly are edging upwards, not driven by apparent news, but more a combination of day-trade activity and PI’s hoping to get lucky. Would you (as a short seller) want to close your short now, just days before not only results are out, but also some news re reducing the debt and potential sale of Kier Living? I’d say, unless good news on all 3 fronts, hedge funds are right to sit tight. Also, the loss (expected or not) of the £700m highway contract to Balfour must somehow be explained with a positive spin. That’s a lot of money NOT to get through the till.
So in closing, I’m not sure whether shorter’s or holders are taking the bigger risk. Next week this time, we will know !!

The sensitivity to this share is enormous. 21p variation, just today and there’s nothing to pin it on, other than a slightly low ftse250 which may have nothing to do with it. I really hope for everybody holding that the 19th will bring good news, and I mean good news ONLY !!

Yeah....

So much for lousy research on my side. Well, it’s one piece of negativity we then won’t face the 19th :-)

Unless you know stuff that isn’t in the public domain, id say you’re a remarkably courageous man. As others have said, the risk/reward outlook imo doesn’t justify an investment in 19/9 (what investing now basically is). I can only assume dividend will be suspended, which definitely will not be popular by any remaining larger investors, why I can’t see a share price of 230p. If Kier Living hasn’t been sold by 19/9 or sold lower than £150m, divi suspension, and maybe weak results, I can see 50/60p. But as I said, with an inside view the risk balance may be different.

10-Sep-19 10:51:03 118.013 -518,379 Buy* -611.75k O

There are a couple of these trades today where a negative but apparently large number of shares has been traded....

Any view of how the £829m of intangible assets has been tested for recoverability ?