RE: Those reds are buys12 Aug 2021 11:44
Professor Steven Riley, from Imperial College London, has tried to shed light on why UK cases have dropped when earlier this summer the health secretary predicted they could hit 100,000 a day.
After topping 50,000 several times in mid-July, daily cases have now stabilised in the 20,000s.
But Professor Riley says the most likely outcome is another rise in the autumn.
He explained: "I think it is possible that it stays stable or even declines through September and October but I don't think that's the most likely outcome.
"Children not being in school, many people not going to the office to work, and it being very easy to socialise outside, those things are currently in our favour and will go against us as we move into September and October.
"Even with the additional vaccination there is going to be a bit of upward pressure so I think there's a reasonable chance that the prevalence will start to tick up again at some point during September."
Professor Riley was asked why daily infections and hospitalisations have fallen in the UK despite restrictions easing.
He said: "We've got lots of immunity in the population now, the vast majority of that is driven by vaccination.
"But also that most recent peak that we saw was probably related to the Euros a little bit and the end of the school year. Some data from the REACT study saw a very high rate of infections in men compared to women which is unusual, suggesting perhaps that social patterns of men had changed, and then also we saw very high levels of infection in school-aged children."