Member Info for Couerdelion

I think 240p might be the new "bottom" and it has been a very profitable hunting zone for me these last few weeks. At a 9% DY, you're rewarded even if the SP falls.

Have a guess.

"...this company has no real problems to ignore..." - you must be new here. There are several key problems here

1 - None of the companies floated by TEK have achieved commercial viability yet and their respective SP performances have been very poor - including one failure.

2 - As a result, no history of income generation in TEK with the result that capital is frequently raised to keep to operation running

3 - Company has shown no signs of returning capital to investors despite have taken all but GDNT to IPO.

FYI, TEK will hold around 56% in GDNT after the IPO and I believe this includes loan notes converted to shares.

I looks a little busier here than usual. A bit early to be expecting any news of a sale but maybe something is happening.

Another set of orders to give the shares a little boost. Let's see if it can get through that pesky 60p barrier.

I guess it depends on when they have to pay the dividend but presumably the short position would increase in value at the time that the liability is triggered so they would make money on the short at the same time as their acquire the cash liability to pay the dividend

Sale and repurchase can create delays due to settlement timescales so Bed & ISA may be the cleanest option. For shares that are liable to leap, I prefer to buy the shares in the ISA then sell them later from my GIA as the reverse leaves you underexposed for a few days at a time when new money is coming in.

FWIW, I'm leaving my TEK shares in the GIA for the downside risk.

Of course the high P/E ratio is a bullish signal but that does not make 490p a good entry point for a long term investment. If the company posted two more years of 63% EPS growth and the SP grew by 10% p.a, then you'd still have a PE ratio around 26x. As for rarity value in the markets, well it might improve the demand for certain stocks but it won't make them more profitable - that requires the business to outperform.

Where the SP goes from now is anyone's guess so if it stops the bickering, I will predict that the price will reach £5 in the next 3 months and there is a good chance it will do this next week. But I also expect it to be trading below £4 at some point in that period, a level at which I would be happy to repurchase some of the shares I sold last week.

Luke, all forgotten. Appreciated.

Yes, it's as if Berenberg didn't know in advance that the YPF judgement was going to be overturned. How careless of them.

But for those paying attention to events, we're clearly trading in a lower range until the company gets some positive results. Just to reiterate that the company has an expected return on existing non-YPF cases of $5.2bn. MCap is sitting at around £700m.

This is supposed to be a serious thread covering the shares of a for a well-established high-reputation company so let's stop all these silly proposals for leaders who won't ever read them. Maybe post ridiculous ideas for nationalising NSOG on one of the NSOG threads rather than a savings company.

True but we are trading on a P/E of around 60x so a lot of future growth is already baked into the SP.

One to hold for now but the volatile SP makes this stock ideal for trading which I doubt the LTH's will be happy about.

Took less than 20 minutes from a modest suggestion to get an out of control response. I think that rather proves my point.

I forget when I last saw a post about RPI.

Yeah that's really what we need here. Add some political discussion to the mix to calm things down.

Glad that Trump doesn't have you as an advisor. He'd probably think this was a good idea.

Not that any of his other advisors are up to scratch.

Canaccord must realise that the $750m of initial capex is already captured in the NPV figures rather than a new liability that has to be deducted from NPV to derive a shareholder value. If we are using the 10% NPV figure of £550m then, if the financing costs 10% p.a., shareholders will be left with £550m of value.

You can check these numbers yourself with the crude profit projections I posted yesterday. For completeness, the net of tax figures are:

Year 1 - $(262m): Year 2 - $(486)m, Year 3 - $106m, Years 4&5 - $220m, Year 6 - $215m, Year 7+ $161m

As for dilution, given that most of this is coming at bargain prices, I would simply divide the target MCap from the larger number of shares issued and ignore the relatively trivial income that the company will receive for those shares.

@Gorblimey, I can't really make any sense of this other than the statement it being highly discounted. Presumably their own DCF-derived NAV figure is already a bit of a black-box number to yield a MCap of £40m (or £80m without the 0.5x factor). But the use of two different figures for NAV is what's confusing me - for example how does the following work:

"1️⃣ Move to 0.7x NAV (post-CEOL / partner)

£550m × 0.7 = £385m

👉 ~40–50p"

Even with 320m shares, 40-50p would give an MCap of £128-160m.

I'm not disputing the key message but I think ChatGPT may have got itself confused with both NAV figures and numbers of shares.

No, the earlier target price was based on current shares so I've updated those figures to reflect what I believe to be the expanded share count after dilution through warrants. Based on the timelines suggested on Tuesday and ballpark discounts by Daniel these are the projected target prices and timings

Q4 2026 - Partnership agreement and financing at 80% discount - 45p

Q4 2028 - DFS at 55% discount - 102p

Q4 2030 - Production starts - 180p.

So while the shorter term multibagging possibilities are clear, and we could hardly blame investors for cashing in on a 5x windfall, over the subsequent 4 years we are still looking at a 40% p.a. unwinding of the discount which, while still subject to the usual execution risks of these sorts of stocks, is essentially a programmed rerating.

The figures above are derived from the PFS. The views are, of course, my own.

Finally got to see the Investor Presentation yesterday. I noted too that Daniel suggested a discount to NPV of around 80% at the "partnering/finance" stage which they are looking to reach cQ4 2026. This ought to then reduce to 50-60% at DFS stage and 15-20% at production.

To give some sense of what this means, using the NPV of $959m, total shares of 320m (allowing for future dilution) and the proposed timescale this would equate to a share price of 45p by end 2026 with the prospect of 180p by end 2030.

Saving on the 20% contingencies for capex would increase these figures by 10%.

Last article was 6 months ago around the time of the raise and he had a "Hold" rating. Not that the commentary tells us anything we don't know and this recommendation was at a time when the SP was 5.15p which probably tells you enough.