Member Info for Couerdelion

Why can't we see those trades on the feed from yesterday?

Let me do some quick sums. If they are going to be producing c50kboepd then at $80/barrel that's $4m per day or $1.4bn per annum. Now throw in $1bn+ of tax relief which is around 75% of the MCap and I think you can see that the market is being quite stingy here.

SP rise seemed to run out of steam early yesterday but there were some sizeable trades at the close yesterday so we can be hopeful for some renewed interest today.

Velladean,

The point made was in response to your view that investors who supported the buyback could instead use a higher dividend to buy more shares. Adeg1 simply turned that around to say that those who would prefer a higher dividend could still get that by selling shares in proportion to the buyout percentage.

I would have thought we're looking at a green/blue day today.

Group tax assets more than doubled in 2025, with a notional value of over $1 billion.

I read that as good news.

ChatGPT has its uses. Just don't ask it for advice on buying and selling because it will always give you a trading strategy.

But back to the good news issued yesterday. It looks like there's a decent flow of buyers acquiring shares here and we have around three weeks for the markets to digest this information before the next set of results come in. Plenty to be positive about here.

You can buy cheap, or you can buy cheaper. Nothing wrong with cheap.

I was hesitant to buy today but I think I will be lined up tomorrow to get some at these prices. It may not be cheapest but who's going to be that obsessed?

It's better for me if I can get the shares into an ISA before they go up.

On which note, I read today's RNS as a ringing endorsement of the company prospects if there isn't the supply to sell the shares back to the company at these prices.

Have I completely misread the situation?

So glad you guys haven't wasted today complaining about the results. Something to look forward to tomorrow though and maybe don't get your expectations up until you see the numbers.

The LDI crash was a localised black swan event that blew up in the case of pension schemes because the schemes were hedging long-term index-linked liabilities and virtually the only people buying long-dated index linked gilts were the pension schemes. Much of the LDI market was also geared with exposure to the longer dated assets gained through the repo market where you lend bonds for cash to buy more bonds. When your bond price crashes from £1 to 30p - which the longer dated assets did - that's a lot of collateral you'll need to call on which is where the liquidity problem arose. I heard rumours that LGIM were stressed and held high-level discussions with the BoE before the Bank stepped in to buy some of the long-term gilts. Ironically, the repo markets operated almost without trouble during the 2008 credit crunch.

Different situation here. A more general expectation of higher inflation and recession but none of the near existential threat of an LDI explosion. Maybe steer clear of LGEN during a financial crisis but otherwise they are a safe haven.

Good memory. The LDI markets - which served DB pension schemes - virtually ceased up and LGIM are very active here. It was a very specific and peculiar liquidity crisis within the pensions industry and for parallels you can probably look to the credit crunch when there were concerns that cash might not be available.

Spot the difference:-

a) a competent person; and

b) the Competent Person.

I believe they announced that they expected to release results today. That part of the message yesterday and the one today have been very clear.

I'd say Germany growth looks pretty healthy. Trading on 8.5x adjusted EPS is just ridiculous.

Can't see anything here to be worried about. If anything it only reinforces the hidden value we have here for the patient investor.

You're reading far too much into this. Try Occam's Razor before heading into the realms of speculation.

Then by all means give us a plausible scenario where you might see the dividend cut here. Noting of course that the dividend is funded out of cash releases, not profits, and that there is a buffer provided by the buyback funding which would be cut before looking at any dividend reduction.

This is not a business that runs like a typical commercial venture in which sales generate profits and cash for distribution. A significant portion of the dividend cash comes from automatic releases of surplus from the life business as older blocks of business mature and the capital tied up in that business is released.

While the market might be distracted by other matters, here I believe the real millstone is the prospect of a capital raise which was highlighted by the audit opinion last time. You get one decent cash generation event and things can turn quickly.

Presumably a combination of higher interest rates and some prospects for peace.