Proposed tender offer14 Apr 2026 20:52
It's early days but the planned $400m buyback tender offer is scheduled (Q4 IIRC) to spend around $400m to buy back shares at an expected discount of 10% to NAV. This works out at current valuation to around 10% of the total share capital and if we assume a 10%pa growth in NAV between the last valuation and end-September, this would give an offer of around £41 per share. The rise in the SP today is broadly consistent with getting a 33% uplift on 10% of the shares. BUT.... the proposals are clearly being planned as an annual thing so any LTH could theoretically over time tender all of their shares at the 10% discount effectively meaning that they'd get a 27% uplift to the SP if they were willing to wait long enough.
Now clearly, the hope is that this, along with other measures, leads to a reduction in the NAV discount, let's say to 20%. This would certainly be welcome and give everyone a 13% SP uplift on top of the fund performance. But even if a 20% discount persisted, you would still be able to either take the tender of 10% shares at a 12.5% premium to SP. And if you don't really need the money you can reinvest it for another year to get that same 1.25%p.a. uplift purely from the tender. If the NAV discount remains at 30%, that 1.25%p.a. uplift becomes 2.86%p.a.!!
In short there's lots to like about this plan. Either the discount narrows or we get left with a long term valuation disparity that will only add to the potential annual returns you can make on the shares. My guess is that the market will figure this out and the discount will narrow a little but would still leave a tidy annual margin.