Member Info for Couerdelion

Perhaps a little pernickety, if they have inside information, they can buy but they may not.

Thinking about it, the cash pile gives them plenty of room to manoeuvre. This looks like a good buying opportunity.

Summary - Hold recommendation.

Some snippets.

"Closing net cash of £50mn (38p) provides firepower to make bolt-on earnings-accretive acquisitions, albeit progress has been painfully slow since last autumn’s acquisition of Industrial Vision Systems"

"analysts at Deutsche Numis are taking a prudent approach both to its contribution and to sales generally across the group. So, although they expect a 10 per cent rebound in annual revenue to £44.1mn (downgraded from £52.9mn) should drive pre-tax profit 38 per cent higher to £4.7mn in the 2024-25 financial year, their new EPS estimate of 2.8p is well shy of their 5p previous forecast."

"share price markdown means that it’s more than priced in with the shares rated on cash-adjusted price/earnings (PE) ratios of 12.5 (2024) and 8.9 (2025)."

It strikes me as being a little odd that LUCY would gain $2.6m in cash, but lose more than that in MV. Share option not exercised = $3.3 per warrant. Option exercised = $12.8 per share.

The irony is that the dilution only hits the share price if it rises in the next 18 months (or 5 years) so the drop suggests optimism that the price will rise.

Cash raise = Fall in MV so far.

So who wins?

TI - Do you know where I can find details of these LUCY warrants?

Funny that I allowed for this in my calculations but you can check them if you want.

LUCY share price move $1 x Holding (c270k shares) = $270k = £200k or 0.1p per TEK share.

Not the best - procedural issues could mean anything. Perhaps Mr Kessler could provide a little commentary.

As a simple rule of thumb, every $1 on the price of LUCY is worth c0.1p to the TEK shareholder before costs.

"Before costs" being the awkward point. If the CEO can grant himself awards out of shareholder assets without their consent, then how do you value the assets in SALT and Guident - the bulk of the NAV? If the CEO can create value from the business by taking 7% of its value for themselves then how do we know they won't do the same with those assets.

It's called agency risk and is part of the cost of investing in companies. But seeing it in action is a salutory lesson and I can see why there is such as large discount to the NAV.

And yet it still needs to double before TEK will see anything significant. It's still less than 1p per share for a TEK shareholder

Bit of an isolated trade seems to be suggesting a jump in the share price but it's not at all substantial so I won't be banking on it until I hear something concrete.

Things will get lively in the next week or two regardless.

As Varnish said, you'll want to be ahead of people doing the same but the logic is to get the dividend in the sale price and pay CGT at 20% thereby saving up to 13.5% tax (or more for additional rate payers). You can work out how much the share would have go rise before you end up worse off than simply paying the dividend tax. But when the dividend is over 50% of the SP, you can probably take it for granted that you'll save more on tax that you will on the price movements. If the trade is made within 30 days, the CGT would be calculated based on the price you pay when you buy them back under B&B rules.

All this could change overnight on 30 October.

Your last price prediction didn't work out too well

This share appears to have a mind of it's own. Has there been any director trading I have missed?

Well it wasn't the news I was waiting for but I wouldn't want to discourage management from keeping us informed of their progress.

Other more knowledgeable posters might pick up something interesting in the accounts. The only new information I picked up here were the temporary cost reduction measures and maybe a little more detail on the delays.

Not a great set of numbers but we knew most of this already. £13m of cash (or similar).

Rzez, it wasn't meant to be confrontational. I was simply commenting on the 240p price you quoted.

I can't begin to explain how bad IFRS is at valuing a company like PHNX. The only value from IFRS are the fees paid to consultants to implement and audit it.

Stick to the simple measures. Dividends are cash that we get, cash is the bit the company keep, and own funds is the store of future profits. Cash and own funds will be the money that gets released over time so you'd apply a discount to own funds because you can't get it yet as it is needed to cover solvency.

That said, PHNX is viewed as a dividend stock so will do nicely when interest rates fall.

We can talk forever about how good the Americans are at making all sorts of decisions. Certainly not the average tourist.

Rzez, I don't think you've got genuine PHNX shares.

50bp cut by the Fed. I'd be stunned if the MPC made the same decision. I'd be a little surprised even if they reduced after the inflation news.