Member Info for Couerdelion

Five days of SP increases and here's about the only cheery post on the Board. It's quite a "barrel-half-empty" sort of place.

I'm at a complete loss to explain the direction of the shares today. The price jumped twice on news that a deal was being discussed then falls when it is announced. I'll probably just wait for some financial press to explain the anomaly.

Could easily finish above £10 today.

Tickets are selling like hotcakes this morning for all the best seats. This ones going to go through the roof.

Expect more to come. The 500p measure in IC is something to look forward to, whether in one year or two, and the share has traded ahead of consensus price for several weeks.

I may take a little more profit at the 370-380p level but the expect to retain a decent chunk of the core holding.

17% of $10m is around £1.2m. As a source of income it will support the cashflow but we need SALT and Guident to drive the SP.

OK, this doesn't sound so bad. Disregarding the price fall, we're now at 6x from 11x.

Without any evidence to the contrary, it looks like we have some good upside here, if we ignore the purchase price. But the management record is not looking good.

Nice but how much belongs to TEK. I think this is more petty cash now.

I agree and it's one of the features of O&G boards I find most frustrating.

Mention climate deniers and they point to the most extreme environmental groups to make their case. While not denying there is the transition period, many will not even accept there is any need for transition and that all the doomsayers are wrong.

Think of it as another feature of O&G. It's an industry that likes to worship the strong man. They like to fight. Conceding ground is a sign of weakness to be exploited. And that's not to mention sinister voices that will appear from time to time who have no interest in the SP.

You'd think a 15% increase on the share price would make people happier. Nope, oil men hold grudges.

Except we should never blame the short sellers.

It's too easy a target and IMO it is the wrong one. All they are doing is investing in the opposite direction to us and they serve as an important check to irrational exuberance that could infect an investor population consisting solely of "positive" investors.

Let's be honest: we're more worried that they will make money when we lose it. They are like supporters of the rival football team and history tells us that those groups get along fine.

When people are genuinely advising others to sell out, there's very little in the advice that would induce someone to do so - apart from the "fear at losing more" factor - and that ship probably sailed last week.

It is all sentiment at the moment so perhaps a more reasoned explanation of the valuation would make the case better than describing the analogy to a human on life support - even on an O&G thread this might be considered insensitive.

I think we all know MT's playbook by now so let's at least agree when our interests are aligned. If there were dividends to reinvest in a tax free environment, I would not be averse to a cheaper SP, but there's none of that here so it's all in the future prospects.

If the original purchase price is a barrier, you might want to reset to a more realistic valuation - a sort of mental write-off. Think in terms of 30p or even 25p, and your view of the stock is transformed into one which has a realistic chance of achieving.

For now, 60p looks unachievable but if you look at the financials of Laguna Verde alone, that has the potential to be valued at 60p per share even at current lithium prices. There remain many hurdles to cross and plenty of obstacles will emerge but these guys strike me as honest brokers and they've done what they promised since I bought in.

Most importantly don't get caught out by the sort of human error the Daniel Kahnemann would identify linked to a fixed reference point. It's a long way to 60p so a reset might allow you to take "profits" at points where you otherwise recognise as a loss. Not that I would recommend this if you have the timeframe to wait but it will make it easier to take the loss if you view it as a "loss limiter" and at a price point that is at least visible from the current SP

I'd support this. I've so little knowledge of the mining industry, you'd be advised to sell if I ever had any operational responsibility. I guess why I am the investor rather than the manager.

Added to the "buy, hold, get dividends" mantra, I would add "reinvest dividends". If you're in a tax-free vehicle, you can leave the dividends to reinvest and sometimes only start to worry if the SP gets too high.

But the analogy works almost as well for the income seekers. Unless the fundamentals (Cash and Own Funds) take a turn for the worse, the dividend is well covered.

Maybe I can sell ahead of the dividend but they'll need to hurry up if they are to beat the end-October deadline.

Maybe that's true but there's almost no logic in selling at this price. Even if you think the share is worthless, you'd get so little for them that you might as well hold on for the potential upside. Worst case scenario is that you're right and I'd lose next to nothing. Once you've lost 80% of your holding, the most you can lose is the remaining 20%.

No top stockpicker prizes for me today. Fortunately I have the happy condolence that my unrealised CG are nearly back to where they were when I sold this morning.

The markets are clearly not pricing in a high probability that the deal will be made near the price suggested. It's around half the business being sold for nearly 90% of the market cap!!

Is anyone a fan of Ed Milliband? There might be certain prevalent characteristics of SQZ shareholders but this one doesn't sound like it would be a unique identifier.

There's a good reason people talk up the SP when they buy, but not when it falls. The reason for buying is fresh in their mind when they buy the shares, but doubts will emerge if the share price takes a fall. It's all fairly basic human behaviour.

As for being able to pick the cheapest price possible, I've never been a fan of trying to do this. If you are happy enough to increase your stake and believe the stock is cheap enough to do so, there's a risk that a delay will take that opportunity away. Sure, you might get a better deal in the next day or week but looking for the best entry point is riskier. I'd rather make a slightly smaller gain than not make any gain because the price went up too soon.

That second quote looks to be your invention.