Member Info for Couerdelion

I can confirm that my latest top-up was marked in the trades as a sell this morning and I'm not sure why I just happened to be the lucky buyer on the other side of the trade. It strikes me that we may be looking at a false market here with large institutions acting as wholesalers for other trades which hides the underlying buyers and sellers.

Despite my disappointment in not making a 20% profit on today's trade, I think it safe to say that I will get my money back with a little patience. The risk now is that CGT rates are increased and I have limited ways to manage my exposure if prices rise without crystallising a big tax bill.

I don't blame you. There's still a decent upside here but I was holding my shares outside of a cosy tax shelter so have to factor in the budget implications. Final slice got close to 70% return over 5 months so I certainly won't have any bad feelings.

Nevertheless, I decided today it was time to take my final slice of profits today. With the uncertainty surrounding upcoming budget, it wasn't a difficult decision given how much the stock has moved since May.

Selling JLP to crystallise capital losses doesn't make sense given the uncertainty surrounding the budget and the expectation that CGT will rise. At the very least you would wait until CGT increased before accepting losses to offset against other gains.

A quarterly return of nearly 6% leaving shares trading at an 18% discount to NAV.

Quarterly dividend of $0.025 confirmed for a dividend yield of 7.5%.

There seems to be a significant pushback on some of the more dramatic changes in pensions tax - many of which will be tricky to implement and may also have long term effects that conflict with the need for increased savings. My guess is that the tax-free cash limit will be cut as will NI relief for employer contributions.

Of course this is speculation.

Another strong rise before the stock goes Ex-div. But at least it is now (pre-div) back to the level it was at the last dividend).

What comes later we will learn in a couple of weeks. The noise is that the financing will largely come from pensions and O&G will be spared the worst effects. So by all means talk about energy policy but maybe look at the share price every now and then

They can value an enterprise but there's the broader factor at play here and the markets are leaning more on this than the underlying value. Put simply, it's financing. And financing is likely to be a factor in the CEOL.

I think the markets are factoring in a new listing price (ie greater dilution). Though perhaps they have also allowed for an additional risk premium for the latest miscalculation that brought us here.

Let's hope this is already in the price.

And RNS about the selling? Didn't think that was something for JLP to provide (or if they had all the information).

Well it would be in keeping with typical human behaviour to have things all finished on a Friday. I may just WFH on Monday am just to keep an eye on things.

#lastchancetobuy

Totally agree SW77, the litigation side is part of the deal with pharma. You buy into the growth prospects that comes with an aging population but the litigation risks always sits there waiting to extract their share of the pie - think of it as an tax levy and it starts to make more sense.

If the risks were too great to justify the profits, the companies would simply not do business in the US. As for Terry Smith, I suspect he, like me, see pharmaceuticals as being a little too random. But demographics force me to put something this way as a store of value, despite the risks.

Edzi,

There is a logic in selling shares for CGT reasons if you are in profit, as there is a risk that rates increase at the end of the month - I took a small chunk of profits from BARC today for this reason. But I can't imagine there are many JLP shareholders who are sitting on unrealised gains, and if taxes do go up, people sitting on losses would be more than likely to hold them as they get to keep all their profits up to their buying price.

And you certainly wouldn't want to realise CGT losses at 20%, if there was a prospect of getting 45% relief on those losses in the near future.

It's safest to assume the EPL will continue indefinitely.

Why is this an RNS?

It didn't take long for the market to shrug of the completion of the buyback program. I set myself a target price of 780p and this is now looking quite low.

Once the budget is out of the way, I'll be buying some of the shares I sold in the last month to realise gains. I suspect I will find things a bit more expensive when I do, but it's a great long term stock that I can't ignore.

I think I said over a month ago that we'd know when we hit bottom after we leave it. A good time to top up if you have spare funds while we wait for the inevitable. I'm not betting on when it will start ticking up but once it does, it will build a little momentum which will attract other buyers. So it is still worth keeping an eye on the price for when we reach breakout territory because that will be the last time to buy.

Please excuse the typo.

Coecqman, I don't agree.

While I certainly would agree that the financing side of things has gone pear-shaped, the valuation of the underlying business has not changed and the operational matters have largely progressed as promised.

It is the listing that provides the money to settle the bridging loan and funds to continue their work into 2025, and the attaching warrants will provide further capital. The price now reflects concerns around financing and heads will be turning to Mr Stein here. But if those matters can be resolved by the end of the year, the debt gets repaid, the charge is released, and the business is funded for the foreseeable.

I think the listing is pivotal to the SP.