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What do we know about Oakglen?

But credit where credit is due, time to place your bets.

My own predictions with regards to O&G taxation are broadly where they were in July.

You're looking at 10.6% dividend yield and expecting there might be more? The next event is the budget. After that the dividend is paid and a not insignificant reinvestment stream.

If I were jumping in and out of this stock, I would have already started buying sub 520p

Probably safest not to get too ahead of ourselves. There's gold in them there hills and we may still have to wait a while for the market to realise it. Those that can afford to wait should be relaxed enough but we could do with a little more upbeat news for those that need the SP to move sooner rather than later.

I'm not sure that "coin-toss" is the best metaphor here as it suggests something close to a 50-50 scenario which I think is a little pessimistic. But it is a single "event" we are waiting on so there may be a tendency to call that at evens when it might be closer to 80%+. But maybe also the market has also lost a lot of faith in the company or the CFO and given the time it takes to take this to the next level, that's a genuine worry. Beyond the "doomsday" scenario, the second downside scenario is one that is perhaps more relevant here - they get the financing but at a price that heavily dilutes the existing stockholders. It's not really a bad scenario, simply one that has much less upside.

Frustratingly, the operational side looks like it is getting close to the point where they could be able to start generating some meaningful sales that would start to cover running costs.

Exciting times. Are we witnessing a breakout?

Surety,

MT is working on fairly standard behavioural ground in giving a choice between a 90% loss or a 100% gain. Faced with that most people would pocket the money rather than risk the "coin-toss" event - which your average O&G owner would also view as loaded gamble. He could have picked +100% and -75% for much the same impact because the object is to nudge the price down at the margins - not the majority of holders who want to hold but those on the undecided or nervous side.

It's possible that the price will disintegrate on Wednesday and this simple fact is pushing it to levels we are now seeing. But we are looking at the worst possible outcome here, for a stock that is particularly sensitive to the budget outcome. Personally, I think the coin is now loaded in our favour and the price has already factored in the more pessimistic outcomes

With a dividend yield of over 10%, you'd expect plenty of warning about a potential cut - particularly from those unfamiliar with life insurance shares. All the better for LT holders who are happy to reinvest dividends at these prices.

FTR, I have sufficient PHX stock but reinvest those I hold in tax-free vehicles.

Let me perhaps elaborate because we all know MT is not the most impartial of commentators on a stock.

CTL is in a very vulnerable position. Although it is sitting on assets of significant value, that cannot be realised without access to capital. The company has long planned that the capital will come via ASX - initially via a rights issue and beyond through access to broader funding source - but this now appears to have hurdles that the company is struggling to overcome. There are also other features (CEOL approval, CEO appointment) that might be dependent on that listing.

The greater the reliance on the ASX listing, the lower the potential listing price and the greater the potential dilution of the stock. This all creates a vicious circle as the listing price is linked to the SP which only increases the dilution of existing holders.

The value in the company is clearly there - we can all probably agree on that. The big question is how much of it will be ours and how much of it will have to be given away for the financing to take the company forward. Until we know those terms, it becomes near impossible to value the share (being distinct from the company itself)

Harmless fun if all we are doing is waiting for the SP to turn. I doubt anyone will come back here in 2 years time to work out which prediction was closest.

But I'm hopeful of a flight on NorthernShark's private jet the the AGM if the SP hits 60p+.

This is what we hold these shares for. Operationally, they look to be on the ball and quietly getting on with what's needed.

But without the financing news, the shares will continue to drift down based on nothing more than lack of news. I believe we were expecting by now to have heard from the new CEO and something of an update on ASX. Without anything concrete, the market (such as it is), is reading in all sorts of negative vibes.

Maybe there is an RNS coming to explain it and there's some sort of corporate nonsense we have to contend with. Based on what we have in the public domain, I would mark this as a good buying opportunity were it not for the habit of these types of shares to leak information before it gets outs (ie insider trading).

My own policy is not to sell on a possible rumour. Hardly reassuring but I'm in the same boat.

That's fine if it drifts down a little, but I just bought in again after selling some of my shares a month ago. Had to wait for the 30-day window to close but I have these as a long term hold and I was more worried about them going higher than a temporary dip in the price.

BPA = Bulk Purchase Annuities. This is the business of insuring pension scheme liabilities for requires capital support when written.

I'm reading this as being fairly neutral for the SP though I can see ways that the market might not be comfortable.

As ever, all roads lead to ASX

Edzi,

With a bid coming it, you'd say this was a good time to buy then?

SeisNav, very little if I have read the report correctly. I think they can only take 1/3rd of the options in the first year so they have to hold most of them for at least a year. But this is why I think we should look at this as a sort of salary rather than a share-base payment.

Cloudbay,

I noticed that the change in options showed a large decrease in the previous year so wondered if the new options were partly in compensation for this. I think we'd need a three year comparison of positions to understand what might be going on there.

Mikie,

I agree there is a parallel alignment in our interests if Leon owns shares rather than options - and 1p options are pseudo shares in this case. But it's always good for managers to have more alignment with shareholder upside which is why larger companies label these are "share awards" rather than options.

This is the key point, Shuvlin. Unless we have some credible benchmarking, it's hard to say whether the options were provided in some sort of underhand way or that the remuneration committee have failed in their duty. In fact, don't think of them as options but as share-based salary because that is what they are.

Ignoring the real options - those struck at 5p or more - the question has to be whether Leon justifies his c£1m pay package (assuming I have the numbers broadly correct). The bonus payments , coupled with the commentary in the Remuneration Committee section, suggest performance was good but not great, so we may be looking at older options that expired worthless and were "restruck" to compensate for lost earnings from previous years.

It's worth clarifying some of the details here (when they were decided and what was it for) but the authorisation for these options was almost certainly granted at the relevant AGM - something covered in the commentary. Shareholders are forever begrudging senior execs a proper reward so this will be familiar ground for management but a suitable level of grumbling is expected. But focus first and foremost on the performance of the share price in all this and whether that reward is sufficiently tied to that of our own.

If you make the basic assumption that a full-listing will increase the share price, then it's hard to see why management would not do this. And not just from a purely selfish viewpoint (value of share options), the higher share price gives them more access to capital which reduces its cost.

Not that some encouragement from other shareholders would be a bad thing. And if IHT is the one obstacle to achieving this, it can hardly do much any real long term harm in this case. If it means Meeson sells his shares, that will surely lead to a wider shareholder basis, even if it does create short term pressures on the SP.