Member Info for Couerdelion

Of course - where's the edit button when you need it.

The current share price is still valuing the company at less than "cash plus 2x consensus earnings". Feels like you could add £1bn to that and it would still be cheap.

Not sure I understand the following statement - "Based on Company compiled consensus, the Board believes the current average market expectations for Group profit before FX revaluation and taxation for the year ending 31 March 2025 to be £541m."

How does that tally with a HY25 result of £799m?

What do we know about the seller on the latest RNS? They own a little short of 8% of the company.

Agree on all numbers. 20 is actually my lowest figure I have used for a forward PE multiple and it's not inconceivable that we're looking at 40 with the potential earning growth here. The biggest variable here is the fixed cost base which I would estimate to be in the range $1-2m. At the lower end, the business is already making profits but at the higher end needs still more growth to pass that threshold. But it doesn't need to do that by much before the multiplier values the business at $10-20m - and this is just looking ahead to the June 2025. The benchmark I have used for my estimate of cost base was based on the figure set aside at launch for working capital.

But these are all just technicalities when it comes to the valuation. The current price of 22p would represent a fair value if you believe, for example, that there is a 50% chance that the company will fail completely, and a 50% chance of valuation at the lowest end of my range. I think we can all agree that the current SP is too low and this remains a cheap entry point. We can argue about the details, and who's being more pessimistic, once the SP reaches 50p

I think £2m is quite bullish for FY25 revenue as it is double the current rate and requires future sales to continue their growth rate of 10% every 6 weeks which feels optimistic but a good reason to hold what shares you have. My more pessimistic assumption have it reaching this level of income by the middle of 2026 and becoming cash generating within a year from now. These assumptions will still support the 48p price I posted earlier today because any upside here is pure profit. All the business has to demonstrate is a path to profitability and growth and you can then adopt a crude P/E multiple to support a three figure SP.

When I first invested (above the current SP) I did have a far cruder valuation approach - nothing more than gut instinct - that valued it at £20m+. The new information today puts this at around the middle of the range I expect it to be by end 2026.

That's how I see it. What's more the warrants and their value should have been reflected in the account to show their value but at a price higher than the current SP.

More of a running than standing start as this business was already operating within TEK. Though in terms of operations and strategy, it did effectively start at the beginning of September and it will be some time before we really start to get a feel for what the business can become and how the cashflow works.

But we do now have twice as many data points to work from and the market should really be reflecting that in narrowing their range of valuations. My own range from 48p to 240p.

Dividend reinvestment is a no-brainer for me otherwise I just have loose change sitting in a relatively small ISA account. If that simply returns 15%+ from future dividends, I won't be too disappointed - but ideally it would be more.

If it's not above 8.9p by this time next year, I am going to have to adjust my spending plans.

You can estimate the financials from the figures and the October update. By my reckoning, it's a little shy of $300k from the first 12 weeks of trading, or over $1m per annum of revenue. Perhaps more interesting is the increase in order rate between the two updates.

You'll have to overlay the cost base but my guess is that they may need a bit more growth before they're covering costs. But this business ought to scale up quickly and generate healthy margins. And once they start to demonstrate profitability, the SP will react if it hasn't already.

Looking at 3x current SP with further upside doesn't look unreasonable to me. As frustrating as it is for long-term holders that the market is heavily discounting the future prospects, it seems to me to be just a matter of time.

If EasyJet want to expand their holiday business through acquisitions, Jet2 is probably the worst of all their options - a holiday business with planes. As for Jet2, I can't see what interest they would have in such a deal. It's simply a better business which will be reflected, over time, in the price.

Barring geo-political fluctuations, I'm expecting a fairly strong trading update on Thursday with some further upside as the winter booking season starts to pick up after the current cold spell.

And some more...

Quite odd to see the price moving with so little trading. Makes you wonder what would happen to the price if they attracted wider interest.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/71919726-b17a-50a3-b2d7-325b58c2ca2c

Interestingly, ST has also noticed how the placing only went to insiders which is at least a start. No surprise that it is still a "buy" but I think everyone who reads it will have already seen his buy recommendations in the past.

And a short spell of cold weather will turn peoples minds to warmer climes.

I'd argue that the upcoming IPO of Guident and the release of restrictions on selling SALT are two more compelling reasons for holding on at this point. The Board clearly have other means to extract their pound of flesh if they can't get it from their shareholdings.

Is this a new metal that they have added to their list or is it a by-product of existing mines/material?

Don't get me wrong, diversification is a good thing but we've got most of the benefits of diversification from PGMs, chrome and copper. I'm not clear what cobalt will add to that.

I should have added that dividends are not funded out or debt.

You can get this information from the HY or YE investor presentations.

https://www.thephoenixgroup.com/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/

There are two different optics you can view this through: Solvency (slide 14) or Accounting (slide 17). It's the Solvency view that determines what is available for distribution. Slide 18 also introduces a separate accounting concept (slide 18) which is a measure of future profits stored in the business - by my reckoning, this alone will cover around 6 years of dividends.

Another possibility is the impending dividend payment, much of which will be reinvested. Investors might be anticipating a SP boost from the large influx of new money.