Member Info for Couerdelion

If only someone had asked this question when it was true.

It isn't now.

Hard to judge but one day is too early to judge. It may retreat a bit before the next attempt but it will keep knocking on the door and will eventually break out after which there is only one direction for the price.

If I were a gambling man, I'd say it will happen this week. But I am patient and can wait if it is a little longer.

I think it was more that the sellers are now out, and the bird can now fly free.

I'll probably need a bit of time to understand that but I get the drift that there's more upside left in the stock. I'll take my profit at around 220p.

This is attempting to raise £620k at 50p a share. Alternatively, I can buy shares today at 48.5p so why would I want to take up the retail offer, particularly if I will need to put up more cash to allow for any scaling back?

What am I missing here?

Well this is awkward. I have a marked price of 206p at which I can shave off a bit of profit. Nothing forcing me to do it but then again, what is the point of setting rules and limits if you don't follow them?

Anyone have an idea of what the current resistance/support levels are or is this all guesswork at the moment?

It's anyone's guess. But mine is yes.

By the same argument, £500m extra in dividends would also be a drop in the ocean.

At current prices, the buybacks will reduce the total number of shares by 1.3% which will increase the EPS by roughly the same amount. If the share price maintains the same P/E ratio, it will therefore increase by 1.3%. Exactly the same thing would happen if 1.3% dividends were reinvested.

Of course, if you want the cash, you can always sell the 1.3% of the SP gain that reflects the buybacks and you're in the same position you would have been if the buyback cash was used to pay dividends (except perhaps you'd possibly save a bit on tax)

Looks like the SP is having another attempt to break out.

I'd say now is a good enough time to buy. I could be mistaken but it looks like the SP has support at this level.

It's not all that different to reinvested dividends only it pushes up the share price by reducing the number of shares which increases EPS.

Was there a question?

You didn't post anything last week, Alwaysbelieve.

Unless, that is, you're posting under a different name. Now who could that possibly be?

I can't see anything here that wasn't flagged earlier in the trading update. Cash covers around 65% of the SP

Cash adjusted P/E ratio of 8.5. Buyback to purchase 9% of shares by 31 March 2025 and medium term targets around 3x current earnings.

On paper there's a lot to like here.

I imagine the traders are waiting for the stock to break through the resistance level (385-390p?) then we can play the game of spotting the next resistance level which is just as much fun for LTH as it is for traders.

For some reference

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/514f151d-8e52-5d69-b465-fcdaf0fb7ff5/

Which would be good news, not least because the fixation on bottoms is unhealthy and has recently got one TV presenter into a lot of trouble.

I should really be filling up on these dips. Can't yet convince myself to throw any more money this way.

We're not far of it being a double-bottom - If I understand the term.

Whether you follow the trader metrics or the business, this is just waiting (albeit for a second time) for the opportunity to move up sharply.

Out of interest, do you ever see triple bottoms.

It's certainly taking its time to recover and I'm starting to accept that we could be here for a longer stay that I had anticipate. When it reaches £4 again, I'll simply recoup my last investment and leave the profit in shares to accumulate.