Member Info for Corryvreckan1

The market is waiting for the US CPI at 1.30pm GMT today

And the UK CPI at 7am tomorrow

And the UK GDP on Thursday

And the UK Retail Sales on Friday

And

We're seem to be stuck in a holding pattern of waiting for one macro announcement after another. At some point there will be a catalyst to change direction - the question is, which way?

Yup, it's the UT from the closing market auction so buys and sells matched together. It happens at the end of every day on this and many other stocks, as LG says it's not exciting although it can sometimes set the tone for open the next day.

Ignore the Buy/Sell legend on here, it's complete mince on a stock like this at this time, when it is volatile and has relatively high volumes each day. Buy/Sell is never reported by the market and the LSE algo that tries to 'guess' which it may be can't possibly keep up.

Also worth noting that when LSE state total B/S volumes for the day, not only is it an inaccurate 'guess', it also excludes all of the trades marked as 'unknown'. So it's more BS than B/S ;) - [Fully expecting LSE Admin to delete that].

Https://www.investors.com/news/economy/cpi-inflation-data-revisions-may-be-a-big-deal-for-the-federal-reserve-sp-500/

"Friday's CPI Data Produces Sigh Of Relief For The Fed, S&P 500"

First reactions - Cable up a little, Dixie down a little and gold - inevitably - refusing to comply with my wishes!

First rate cut still looking like May.

Next week's CPI is preceded by another wheeze the US have to distort the outlook - the annual 'seasonal adjustment factors' which are announced today at 1.30pm GMT:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm

From Alliance News:

ING analysts said: "Today sees one of the key event risks of the week – the annual US CPI benchmarks revisions. The Fed's current position is that it is looking for confidence in the disinflation process. Assuming the recent benign inflation trends are not revised away today, the dollar could edge a little lower."

And I was hoping for a calmer day!

The BRC report for January was out on Tuesday and again highlighted the sector after a standout December as well:

“Easing inflation and weak consumer demand led retail sales growth to slow...It was better news for health and beauty products, which continued to sell extremely well."

Full report:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202401_uk_rsm/

Anon3 - not sure anyone is saying it definitely has been closed but short tracker are showing it reduced to 0.01% yesterday, the day after it was first reported:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BM8Q5M07/

So they've either given them straight back (keeping just 518k for fun) or it's all a mistake.

My understanding is that the initial borrowing of shares needs to be reported but the selling, i.e. holding a short position in the market, can take place over any undisclosed timeframe. But agreed, there is no way they had sold 95m shares in one day, that would be impossible to achieve any objective.

Happy to be corrected if any of that is wrong.

I guess we can never really know what these large organisations are doing.

May have been a mistake which has now been reversed, end of (other than its possible influence on market activity)?

May have been correct, they started selling some shares and then had a change of plan, bought those back and closed the position. End of (for now at least) for maybe a small gain/taken a hit for the costs?

But there could be any number of publicly undisclosed short positions at just below 0.5% at any time, including Voleon now. For JD 0.49% = 25.4m shares. You need a paid subscription to access the non public data which reports above 0.1% I think?

Anyway, we are back in the hands of the macro for now, until news. I don’t see anything potentially too upsetting to be reported tomorrow so hoping for a calmer day.

Update on thoughts from my post below on 1 Feb:

1. The news vacuum until next results is definitely not helping, particularly given the amount of uncertainty in the macro at the moment. Barclay’s £3 target is perhaps a bit lazy given where it topped out recently and they don’t give a time frame for that to be reached (at least not publicly) but would not be surprised to see that attained again later this year.

2. The retracement, which was clinging desperately to the base of the long uptrend for a few days, has now broken through and has therefore moved from a retracement to a reversal. Unfortunately that has confirmed a downtrend that makes the completion of the rest of the pattern more likely IMO. But wait, there’s hope…

3. The 200 daily moving average is still rising from below and that could potentially offer strong support at around the 225 mark, perhaps sometime next week? That would also mark the closing of the gap created by those lovely HY results on 8th November. However (why is there always a ‘however’ just when the good news appears?), if the 200 doesn’t hold then the final stage is in play. Similar to the retracement holding the uptrend the last few days, I would not be surprised to see the SP going sideways along the 200DMA for a few days as well, however (told you), if it doesn’t bounce from there and instead breaks under:

4. The denouement could be that it completes the pattern down to 203, closing the gap created by the TU on 15th August as it does so and then tries to figure out what to do next. Given that’s close to 200 I would not be surprised if it respects that psychological level, hovers around for a while perhaps around the end of this month, and then starts a new uptrend looking towards the FY results in May. If PE was interested that may be the point where they come in play???

Or not, you pays yer money and all that…

I always read Alistair Strang's posts on ii, partly to test my own observations against his but I also like his writing style. We are pretty much in alignment on this although my price targets are a little bit higher.

Good to see this holding up well without the buyback support, looks to be building another base ahead of hopefully the next move up.

Like I said, they need people to buy the stock they are selling otherwise it won't work. But there's not much buying at this time generally (people are waiting for the TU in March) so when each wave subsides they start selling the next tranche and the price drips down further without the buying pressure, until it reaches the next level that someone else finds attractive to buy, and so on.

This is just getting started...

Also, a small request, can people please stop buying US$ as I really, really need gold to rise again. TIA :)

It's an intra-day movement on relatively low volume. Shorts need people to buy the stock they wish to sell so you wil get this kind of volatility which will then be sold into again.

It's not a 90m close because they haven't sold anywhere near 90m...yet.

But I've just put a humble pie in the oven, just in case ;op

This will be highly volatile for several more weeks yet until the TU is released, switch off to intra-day movements to preserve your sanity ;o)

This short is just getting started, and now that one has appeared with such a brash entrance (and timed perfectly from a technical point of view IMO) there is a risk of contagion and more position covering :/

It's not late reported, it was OTC and there were 2 sides to that 10 minutes apart, so a private trade/transfer possibly between instis.

"nothing wrong that a good spring sale will not correct"

Careful what you wish for - it was a good Christmas sale that helped get them into this situation to begin with, and going by the BRC reports a good January sale will also have to be factored into the FY trading update due in March. Forward guidance is then going to be key to how the market reacts. Hopefully they will have learned not to be over bullish in their forecast this time as the market might just say "your kidding" again.

Did you see my post below on 19 Jan 2024 at 22:05? Trading View still have earlier data that is irrelevant to Emmerson.

FY 2023 results scheduled for release on 19th March so once they are out and FCA approval received then should be good for the move.

Interesting large scale excavation, complete with heavy earth moving equipment. Rough estimate c350m x 80m and around 800m to the east of the main target zone at the bottom of EMLs planned decline.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@33.8112973,-5.9146611,1946m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en-GB&entry=ttu

May be irrigation/plantation related - similar to the area just to the south-west of it? Further evidence of attempts to manage a way through the drought?

Or [insert conspiracy theory here]... ;o)

US non-farm payrolls and wages growth came in super hot, no chance of a March interest rate cut now IMO. Erased a lot of early SP gains. $ has strengthened on the back of it which is better for overseas earnings though.

Would need to fall below position 110 for automatic exit, currently an SP of around £1.65 for that to happen. Next key date for rebalancing is closing value on Tues 27 Feb.

There seems to be a lot of word cheese in that update and a distinct lack of numbers (i.e. none!). I never like the use of the word "resilient" in the absence of anything factual, will keep it on watch for now though until HY results which are due 26 March.