Member Info for Corryvreckan1

I believe so but maybe should double check that, or they can sell sufficient shares to keep below 30% which I've seen before in that situation. It's the % held that matters rather than how they get there.

Looks like this may have had a delayed impact here yesterday, Admiral and Direct line took the brunt of it in the morning:

LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - "Shares in UK insurers fell on Wednesday, with traders pointing to an article in the Insurance Post that quoted the Financial Conduct Authority’s Head of Insurance Matt Brewis as saying premium finance was a “poor product”."

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/ADM/uk-insurers-tumble-on-report-of-regulator-comments-on-premium-finance-6eephxp404cs4nc.html

Look what you did - Mr Bot woke up grumpy!

StraightAIM - yes, 30% trips the wire for the takeover code to apply and they then have 28 days to make a firm offer or withdraw any intent (for 6 months). I'm not aware of any exceptions that would apply here. But that could be some time away unless they speed up their rate of acquiring shares (ha – see today’s RNS just published as I was typing!).

I'm not personally convinced they will go the whole way, but a key point from the RNS yesterday is that they have now crossed over 25% (for the first time I think?) so they can now block any special resolutions which require 75% to pass that they may not agree with, including someone else trying to complete a full takeover.

ScottAJ - KAPE situation was different so not a comparable. IIRC the major holder had even more than that previously but it dated back to pre-listing?, different to someone accumulating shares to perhaps cross over 30% for the first time. But yes, 30% only gives the obligation to make an offer (or rescind) with no certainty it will be accepted, over 50% gives Board control but not the right for a full takeover (75%/90% required depending).

I’ve generalised a few points to keep it brief and please anyone correct if I have any of that wrong. Some very dry reading in the following link if you want to:

https://code.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/tp)

Or I find this one gives a good although still quite lengthy summary, also with a summary about various key shareholding levels and not just for takeovers (with credit to Baker McKenzie):

https://resourcehub.bakermckenzie.com/en/resources/global-public-ma-guide/europe-middle-east-and-africa/united-kingdom/topics/before-a-public-takeover-bid

Alessandro - RBC have been reiterating outperform continuously for 2 years now so not sure what you can read into that rating today. They have been gradually cutting their price target from a perhaps unrealistic 275p 2 years ago to 150p today at the same time, so your first sentence may well be on the mark?

Just one broker update on this morning's list:

RBC cuts JD Sports Fashion price target to 150 (185) pence - 'outperform'

So that just takes them back to exactly where they were in Jan last year.

The price has understandably rejoined the downtrend that started in Feb last year, and it's currently bouncing along the bottom of the channel. There may be a small spike at some point but it will likely be heavily sold into as some of those buying on Friday/today will exit for a quick 5% as there are better short term opportunities elsewhere.

As I pointed out on Friday, from the RNS:

"...we plan to release a full-year trading outcome update in March, including our initial guidance for FY25."

So the market are understandably cautious/mistrusting at the moment until they see what that update brings. And the YE is 31/1, not 31/12, so they still have to factor in heavy discounting this month to clear stock before Spring and the market will want to see the effect of that on margins, IMO. JD created this situation with their £1bn forecast comfirmation and now telling the market to hold off for an update. Hubris can be painful sometimes.

And this is FTSE100, not AIM, so you can't ramp this as the IIs are in control. The SP is not responding to what teenagers want, it's responding to market dynamics and macro events, including the $ FX and the Red Sea situation.

That's my take, but as always DYOR.

Thanks laser, can't see it being included myself, maybe best not to plan for it paying for a few extra Easter eggs that weekend.

On which note, I posted below that the next payment is due on Fri 29th March but that's Good Friday so it should be Thurs 28th instead, per the terms in the Deed Poll. And as that's Easter weekend with markets closed on the Monday as well you can expect some brokers to wait until middle of the following week to credit accounts.

Https://investors.plus500.com/Shareholder#financial-calendar

Unfortunately most publicly available broker targets don't provide a target date but are generally assumed to be 12m ahead. Short term is anyone's guess.

30 minute warning people...buckle up 'cos it's about to get messy :/

JP Morgan have cut their price target to 175 (211) and re-iterated 'overweight'.

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/global-broker-ratings-jefferies-cuts-mondi-to-hold-al1704458039159485400

That's it for today, the rest may follow next week.

Https://www.ii.co.uk/news/maersk-to-divert-ships-around-africa-for-foreseeable-future-al1704455405309427100

The next catalyst for the share price will be the US non-farm payrolls at 1.30pm UK time, as I highlighted yesterday.

If they come in hot, which the market is already anticipating and the US markets anticipated yesterday afternoon, then everything except the $ will be hit.

If they come in too low then everything including the $ will be hit because the worry will turn to recession and the Fed maybe having overshot and risked not achieving a soft landing.

If they come in just around forecast, in the Goldilocks zone, then there will be an Algo driven frenzy to take positions for a hopeful recovery.

I'm obviously exagerting a bit there but that's the general position today IMO (and DYOR obvs). Strap in and hold on for the ride...

Broker ratings are already out and no mention of JD

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/london-broker-ratings-jefferies-cuts-mondi-to-hold-from-buy-al1704445054219070500

A declaration tomorrow or early next week could potentially still give an XD date of the 18th, with payment around the end of the month if the registrar can turn it around by then, or soon after.

PhilMin - II don't know any more than the rest of us so they can't claim that it should have been declared 2 Jan, looks like they are just making an assumption based on the date last quarter.

Google is taking that 130p from the delayed reporting of 2x 12m shares either dumped or transferred at 9.49am this morning.

The stock exchange is showing a spike at 130.54p at 5.03pm which is also an unwinding from this morning per trade below, but they quote a closing price of 119.70.

04-Jan-24 17:03:48 130.54131 217,265 Buy* 119.80 120.00 283.62k O

04-Jan-24 08:42:16 130.54131 -217,265 Unknown* 119.80 120.00 -283.62k O

I can't see either affecting open tomorrow.

Upgrades? Most brokers were already on Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings with target prices c.180-220.

They can either re-iterate or drop, but not much room for upgrade. And the re-iterates may cut their price targets based on today's news. The RNS included: "we plan to release a full-year trading outcome update in March, including our initial guidance for FY25". Given today's miss the market may be less trusting and may want to wait and see first.

Could be more volatility tomorrow ahead of the US payroll data (1.30pm UK time), across the whole market. Today's data came in a bit hot and if tomorrow confirms then possible the $ will firm up a bit as it could push the likelyhood of rate cuts out a bit longer. Or not, fek knows how the market will respond to anything these days :/

Can see JD stumbling along a level for a while to find a new base.

Thank you.

Thanks Mick. Just for my own future interest can I ask where you get your Met coal price from, I can only seem to find subscription sources?