Member Info for Corryvreckan1

Hank – just a quick note on your question and then I'm going back into hibernation as it's officially still winter ;op

laserdisc and DiveCentre have provided several updates on the FPSO operations and offload timings over recent months, so you can establish a rough idea of how many there is likely to be each year and the volumes taken off. Myself, senseman and others have commented on the DCU calculations and timings over the last few months, so you can establish a rough idea of how much each payment is likely be.

But we have all indicated that there are many unknowns and variables in all of this, and we are ourselves encountering some of these aspects for the first time ever (e.g. the Dec/Jan offload that straddled a qualifying date). Until we receive the statement at the end of March, and really not until the one due in September as well, we won’t have a clearer picture of the likely trajectory into 2005 and 2006.

For now, anyone’s reasonable and educated guess is as good as anyone else’s. So, if you really need to, take a guess and then go with it until the facts emerge and the situation is clearer in the months ahead.

Laters, zzzzzz

It's a long and wieldy document so I recommend doing a word search (Ctrl F) on just zero and see where it takes you. There may be other related reasons for the zero trades as well but it's all standard market dynamics so nothing suspicious. It did give me a headache reading it though :/

If you look at the trade information on these it states "Was reported as OTC" - that's Over The Counter. Those are private transactions between two parties done away from the stock exchange but they still have to report that the trade has happened under stock market regulations.

This may relate to the transfer of shares between tracker funds following the FTSE announcement. I posted yesterday about this happening between fund managers within the same 'stable' to limit market volatility and transaction fees.

The zero trades sometimes relate to transactions/processes within a large 'hidden' order that has yet to complete. But I've not fully researched this so please don't ask me any questions about it; there is plenty of very dry and arcane reading about zero trades online, including in the official stock market regulations. The following link is one of them - it will automatically download/open a PDF on your device:

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/mit201-guidetotradingservicesv146andtradecho.pdf

I'm generalising a bit and this is just my understanding of it (I'm not a financial professional), but in short - it's institutions just doing what they do and nothing to worry about as it shouldn't affect your own investing decisions.

Amen to scrapping stamp duty, would fit with the discussions around encouraging more UK investors to invest in UK. But yes, also need the IIs to believe the 'turnaround' is happening.

FTSE rebalance is effective 18th March rather than this week; it was expected for KIER so perhaps somewhat reflected in recent rise as well. Interesting moves this morning though...

Here's the official announcement from last night:

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-review-march-2024

Now it's official:

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-review-march-2024

2 x 9m shares went through as OTC two seconds apart and didn't nudge the SP so looks like maybe a transfer between IIs ?

Meanwhile, half the world awaits the PCE tomorrow afternoon (the preliminaries today didn't appear to give much away) while the rest of us are off to put the kettle on :p

Nooo! Not the jitters Mary, that never ends well :(

Looks like maybe a few UBS clients took the bait this morning and then fizzled out, but for now…

Slip slidin' away

Slip slidin' away

You know the nearer your destination

The more you're slip slidin' away

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUODdPpnxcA

Paul Simon, genius. Maybe holds some JD shares?

US GDP at 1.30pm GMT so expect a flurry of algo activity around then - but which way...

The official announcement comes by press release from FTSE Russell after market close tonight. The Times are a little ahead but that's standard media - get the story out before your competitors.

The decision is (partly) based on closing MCap value yesterday but the index rebalancing doesn't take effect until 18th March.

So they are not in-in yet, but they are out>in and will be back in very soon. It's been a long journey but time to push on now and see what future opportunities bring ...

And still a pause in the buy-backs. Not sure what's going on there?

Still unofficial but looks like no strike with the extra ball, maybe just missed out at the end by three pins - I mean three places - in the table :/

Now 7 days running closed above previous high of 315 from Jan 2020, but going sideways again so needs direction. Same for a number of companies returning to their pre-covid level, maybe just pausing as some LT holders sell once back to break-even?

Let it go, JG, let it go before your sanity is let go.

US durable goods orders and consumer confidence both came in well down this afternoon so that will have an impact today. US PCE on Thursday at 1.30pm GMT is the big one this week though.

Cheers, I need to update some of my data research. I may do some more digging into fund values at the weekend, but the massive outflow of money from some funds, and many UK company shares generally in recent years makes for a hard read. Darned NASDAQ!

What source are you using for that? Just curious, not questioning it.

It's not the number of funds that matters, it's the total value of the assets within those funds that is available to invest in each index or sector of the market that counts, and the 'relative' weighting then given to each company invested in.

Cut off is UK market close after the end of day auction sets the closing price, Canada is not relevant to the decision made by FTSE Russell.

For the discussion on tracker funds - remember that EZJ is going into the bottom end of the 100 so a 'relatively' small position in those funds (to start with) and hence a small portion of the funds available will be allocated to acquiring those shares.

Conversely, as it is currently at the top end of the 250, it will be a relatively large portion of the holdings in the 250 trackers that will now be reallocated elsewhere after disposing of those shares.

Many of these funds are managed within the same fund manager 'stables' so they will try to transfer as many shares in-house as needed, to try to limit both costs and market volatility, rather than buying on open market. Hence the points made by TRD in the OP on this thread.

And none of this happens quickly, it's a gradual process and the funds will have their own rules and rebalancing dates to comply with. Most of them try to 'mirror' the FTSE indices over time but their allocations are never an exact match at any one time.

It's on!

Clean bowled to take out the 7-10 for the spare and at time of writing my estimate is that BOWL is in place for promotion to the FTSE250 when it is rebalanced on 18th March. Needs to hold place at close tonight for the extra ball to count :)

The SP has also closed above the previous all time high of 315 for the last 6 days running, so clear skies above.

Obviously just my own calcs and not official; FTSE Russell announce the actual changes after close tomorrow.

I have £13.67 for EDV, but either way still a big jump / black swan RNS needed to close the gap from £12.87 and avoid the scalpel.

EZJ need c.590s to take the matter into their own hands but doesn't look like that will be needed.

Lunchtime, yay :)

Not until after close tomorrow.

EDV fighting back today after going ex-div last Thursday, although still a good bit off survival. EZJ not yet high enough for promotion under their own steam.

Yeah, $81k for ‘marketing’, cos BP don’t already have a ready stream of customers! Expensive biscuits in the canteen that month ;)

I see Brent back in mid 70s short term before it gets to 90s, if at all. Just a personal feeling, partly chart based, rather than a knowledgeable assessment of the market (I’ll leave that ‘knowledge’ to the traders pushing their book…).

Unless some distressed seller needs to do a bit of urgent greenwashing I don’t see Prax completing any deal in sufficient time to have an (-significant-) impact before the DCU term expires. Heavy discounted NPV on DCU bargaining suggests that as well (although obviously other risks also apply in that calc.). And as you say, cash in bank at current rates before they start trimming …

Don’t mind you copying over but maybe refer to my posts here instead, and quote anything specific if needed, rather than copy full text? If it then gets mangled/misrepresented over there then I can’t respond. Appreciate some posters there may be interested but unlike ADV’s selective display, every post on LSE is publicly visible even without signing up, so it stays in context on the full thread. I know you meant well :)

Forgot to state that link will automatically download/open a pdf on your device, rather than open a webpage.

Senseman - yes 17.5% per scheme docs. It is applied after deducting the costs permitted by the scheme and after the FX conversion to £.

The costs I have used are as listed in the first Calculation Statement issued by Prax last September (hopefully this link works, it's on their website if not. Viewing this alongside my calcs below may help with the overall picture of what is likely):

https://www.prax.com/?downloadDoc=3807

In summary - transport downstream, port based charges and marketing.

It does look like your man was maybe quoting in $. Important also to note that the FX is applied to the total payment soon before it is made. The Sept statement shows a rate on 14 Sept, which I suspect is when Prax would draw down the funds from a $ account in good time to make sure they are available for payment at the end of the month.

The FX rate has unfortunately gone against DCU holders more recently, and will likely do so again in Sept if the US moves to cut rates before/faster than UK (and vice versa).