Member Info for Corryvreckan1

Nike results are not until this evening, after NYSE close.

Last post from me on this topic, just a perfect example on a point I made before. I mentioned that:

“Sometimes you can both buy and sell below, or above, mid price depending on availability of stock and the demand/desire of MMs to get rid of it – you can sometimes tell what the real active spread is by looking at the trade prices going through.”

On Amaroq Minerals today you can see all trades being marked by LSE as ‘Sell’ as they are all below mid price in a spread that was reported as 82-84 all morning. The trades at 82.35 - 82.49 were in fact all initiated by someone placing a buy order with their broker and the MM has filled the order at a price below mid.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.html?shareprice=AMRQ&share=Amaroq-Minerals

The 84 in the spread is possibly a sell order that someone is hoping to fill at that price, once the lower priced stock is shifted (I don’t have L2 access so can’t check that) so is skewing the reported spread to the upside, despite the range where all the current activity is actually taking place.

You can see the same on yesterday’s trades within the same spread as well, with the high 82s actually being ‘buy’ in origin, despite being below mid, and those around 82 being ‘sell’.

Yet according to LSE no-one was interested in buying this stock at any time in the last two days, therefore unreliable.

Stargate - the sector comparison you are using, is it the Personal Goods sector listed on this website, or another market sector summary?

If it's this website's list then the only other company on there that is remotely comparable is Revolution Beauty, the others are all high brand clothing and luxury watch providers that have also been heavily hit by the China slow down, profit warnings and high interest rates, so not really comparable in my view. I'm open to hear suggestions for better alternative comparisons.

Don't need to go to a dodgy ad-filled trash media website, story is in the news link at the top of this page.

Amazing how many companies have issued completely tone-deaf adverts recently.

Inevitably I spot the typo after posting and not before :( The upside of my range should be 0.65 and 0.95 rather than 0.62 and 0.92. Must get that wobbly key on my keyboard sorted...

But it will be whatever Prax notify it will be and my musings won't matter when you try to work out how many extra chocolate eggs you can afford ;o)

Request - please keep this thread on topic and add useful info only, to avoid folk having to repeat the same questions asked before. Thank you :)

Timing

Payment is due on Thursday 28th, under the terms of the DCU Deed Poll. Some brokers were a bit tardy crediting accounts last time, and as it’s a long Easter holiday weekend you can be sure that some will wait until the following week and enjoy the interest for longer. Of course, it’s up to Prax and the Registrar (Computershare) to get the money out on time first…

Accounts

Many folk who previously held their Hurricane shares in an ISA will possibly still get the DCU payment into the ISA, despite the DCUs themselves being moved out to a regular non-ISA/Trading account. Consensus here was that from a tax perspective that was probably correct – there are previous threads from last Sept/Oct covering it that you can refer to rather than going over it again on this one.

The DCU payment is not a dividend. It's a capital payment (Deferred Consideration) relating to Prax buying your old Hurricane shares, regardless of what your nonsense broker decides to call it.

Offloads

Consensus here is that it will likely be for two offloads, July and October, and the offload at end Dec > early Jan would be too late for inclusion in this period, but you never know. I have crunched some numbers from the information/estimates we have available and from last September - it’s all a bit mixed due to Brent fluctuations and some headwinds.

If the terms of the BP contract still remain the same (we have no way of knowing) then $Brent to be applied last July is potentially lower than last April but October is certainly higher. laserdisc’s offload volume estimates for July and Oct average less than 1% lower than last April, so hopefully the reported volumes are comparable.

The fees and costs for each offload could be higher due to inflation and increased shipping costs later last year. The £/$ FX conversion could also be c.2 - 2.5% higher than last September, depending on when Prax draw down the funds to be in time for the payment, so that’s a likely negative hit.

Payment

Putting my head on the block here (be nice!). Overall, my estimate is that the payment could total in the range 0.57 - 0.62 pence per DCU, for two offloads (Sept was 0.309p for one offload). If the third offload is somehow included then I estimate within a range 0.85 - 0.92 pence. Lot’s of variables and unknowns though so may still surprise to the upside and prove me wrong [and all of this is just my own interpretation of key points for general info, so please DYOR as always].

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Everything else you need to know may already be answered in the Documents and the FAQs on Prax website - https://www.prax.com/information-for-holders-of-dcus/

The payment statement should also be published on there end of next week; the previous one is still there for comparison.

TIA and best wishes :o)

©

Jlovie - agreed, I've had that bookmarked for some time now. It is dated 2008 so some of the market terminology has changed, but the principles are still the same.

If anyone reading knows of a more recent article that is reliable and well written then please do share a link, thanks.

Laserdisc – thank you, “profit sharing” is the key term there that relates to what I was trying to recollect. It also helps explain the reconciliation between Hurricane’s Ops update for the offload last April and what Prax then reported in September.

All good, cheers.

Question for any of the long termers here - I have a vague recollection that Hurricane may have received a premium to Brent on their offloads in the past? The closest comment I can find relating to this is from the annual reports which includes (for 2022):

"The average netback to the contractual Brent price was $2.7/bbl (2021: $2.7/bbl), representing the discount or premium offered by the refinery purchasing the crude, BP’s marketing fee, and the freight and port costs incurred by the buyer in transporting Lancaster crude to its ultimate destination."

The words "discount or premium" maybe don't help there - it should perhaps be clearer that it's one or the other? But in that context does "netback" equate to a premium, or have I misunderstood? This is a separate point to how the average Brent price is determined for each offload which I do know about, so I don't need the discussion to go into that.

Anyone knowledgeable have a quick and simple answer please? Thank you.

* 2nd Feb update, not January.

Yeah, I know, it's Friday night and I really should get out more :/

Have a good weekend.

I’ve managed to review a full list of the trades reported yesterday by cross checking data from 3 sources.

The total value of all those trades was £856,020. Compare that to the totals that you mentioned earlier - Buy £104,891 + Sell £151,938 = £256,829. The difference matches the total of the trades marked as ‘unknown’ - £599,191 = 70% of all trades by value not classified by LSE! It's the same % split for volume as well.

Most of those trades are ‘unknown’ because they were on mid price. LSE, and other similar websites, just run an algo on their database to match the trade price to the mid price at the time of the trade. If below they guess it was a ‘sell’, if above it’s a ‘buy’, and so any bang on the mid price have to be ‘unknown’ based on that limited methodology. Sometimes you can both buy and sell below, or above, mid price depending on availability of stock and the demand/desire of MMs to get rid of it – you can sometimes tell what the real active spread is by looking at the trade prices going through.

There were also two trades after close yesterday marked as unknown which is the LSE default for all late reported trades regardless of the price and spread. Same applies to trades above ask or below bid in the reported spread. There are exceptions to this which have appeared more and more recently so I suspect their algo is maybe a bit broken.

Buy and sell, i.e. the origin of the trade, are never reported by the market, it just reports that ‘a trade’ has occurred. Which is correct because there are two sides to every trade – you can’t buy unless someone else is willing to sell at an agreed price, or has already sold to an MM or other intermediary, and vice versa. So the whole concept of marking buy and sell is flawed to begin with. It’s just a tool that some data service websites like this one think will be of use to their members, without highlighting the limitations of it. And then it gets misused by rampers and derampers alike to mislead and suck in unknowing PIs on some shares.

So you can see that some of the trade info on here, other than the specific details that are reported by the stock exchange, has limited value as it can be unreliable unless you know what to look for.

Best wishes for a breakout over £12 – Half Year results on 26th might be the catalyst for that and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a half-decent rise into that date, despite the lack of detail in the January update. We can only hope...

That will include a lot of final transfers ahead of the FTSE reshuffle this weekend, which will inflate the volume today. LSE have only marked it as 'Buy' because the price agreed in the closing auction was above Mid/Ask at the time, but it's actually buys matched with sells at that price so a net nil sum.

Also, none of the trades that LSE mark as 'unknown' are included in either the buy or the sell totals each day so they are pretty meaningless in a large company with thousands of trades.

"A lot of the big trades are at mid, so it depends how those are counted." - Yeah, that's the crux of the problem.

Mid price trades are marked by LSE as "unknown" because their algo can't 'guess' what the origin of the trade was (it's never reported by the market). Late reported trades are also marked as unknown. None of the unknowns are included in the daily totals, on either side, so they are both well below the actual total value for the day and therefore unreliable.

There's a bit more to it than that but I want to analyse yesterday's data first to give more confidence in my reply later.

As a premium member you must have access to historical data that I can't see, I can only see totals for the current day on here. I have downloaded data from elsewhere but need to do some analysis on it first to confirm my answer to your query. I'll post back later today (evening) if I can.

Where are you seeing yesterday's data?

I posted before about the sector read across that corelated directly to JD price movement over the last year, but this week has confounded that. Adidas up almost 10% in two days, Dick's up 15% today so far, yet JD - after perhaps lower than expected intraday volatility - ends down and continuing this week's downtrend. The first two obviously benefiting from having their results out there now, but the market is still waiting for JD to clarify their position hence the following may have had more of a negative impact here today:

US retail data was up overall for February (+0.6%) but short of consensus (+0.8%) and January was revised down from -0.8% to -1.1%. Looking at the detail, Clothing and clothing accessories stores (I assume JD fit in there) were actually -0.5% from Jan, and Jan was -0.8% from Dec (albeit with some sampling variability in the numbers) so looks like discounting/weather impacts may have continued on through?

https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

The Producer Price Inflation (PPI) today came in really hot (+1.6% vs 1.1% expected and +0.9% in Jan) which appears to have knocked equities and given the $ a boost today. One benefit JD get from that is the weaker £ helping with overseas earnings, although that will continue to fluctuate.

So we are back to where we were - waiting for the TU and FY25 guidance in two weeks time - although I suspect that now we know the date there may be at least one more opportunity for a short term trade before then...

Either that or there are some dark forces at work on JD right now, but let's speak not of them in these hallowed virtual halls. Hush now ;o)

Https://www.timeout.com/travel/most-romantic-hotels-in-the-world

Send us a postcard...

Voli – thank you for replying. It’s always good to discuss and debate these things on these boards, that’s where they work best IMO as we can all learn from each other. Just please make sure you always credit a source for imported information so folk can check it themselves in it’s original context, and then challenge it if need be, rather than posting something that could then be misleading to others.

Best wishes for your UK investments :)

Agree with 377 as a first target, top of the current uptrend channel. Solid S/R line at £4 as well if it has the legs.

But I'm not letting you off with "backwardation" this early in the morning! I'm still just on my second coffee and you're giving high school algebra to think about :(

Early comments via Alliance News, shows a mixed bag and the market is still looking for direction. Along with Dick's results this morning it could be quite volatile intraday until the dust settles:

"Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya commented: "Retail sales are expected to have rebounded following a relatively weak read in January, while producer prices are expected to have risen in February, fuelled by higher energy prices. Normally, I would expect higher-than-expected retail sales and higher-than-expected PPI data to temper the Fed rate cut bets, back a further rise in US yields and the dollar, and trigger a downside correction in the US stock markets."

The producer price index numbers are expected to show the pace of year-on-year US producer price growth picked up to 1.1% on in February, according to FXStreet cited consensus, from 0.9% in January.

Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.8% on month in February, following a 0.8% fall in January from December."

Above data, and US jobless claims, all due at 12.30pm GMT.