Member Info for Corryvreckan1

Thank you LSE202020.

Not good for anyone not registered with X though, and unless they plan to put it in an RNS then it should at least be in the news section on the website as well. Or preferably have a calendar on the website, something few AIM companies seem to want to do but standard practice for most on the main market.

Darien - where are you seeing 21st March for YE results? Can't find that date announced anywhere.

Nice, thanks for posting. Other data was maybe a bit mixed for food sales but this looks like it was mixed in our favour :)

Not helping this morning:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202402_uk_rsm/

https://uk.fashionnetwork.com/news/More-evidence-of-weak-retail-as-barclays-and-brc-say-fashion-has-tough-month,1611055.html#chanel

BRC report for February:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202402_uk_rsm/

“Health and beauty categories continued to drive sales both on the high street and online,..."

Also from separate reporting:

"One frequently buoyant category continued to be so however, with pharmacy/health & beauty up 6.5% by value and 2.4% by volume. With value growth outstripping volumes, those figures show this is one area where retailers are managing to push up prices and still get consumers to buy."

https://uk.fashionnetwork.com/news/More-evidence-of-weak-retail-as-barclays-and-brc-say-fashion-has-tough-month,1611055.html#chanel

Full report out now:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202402_uk_rsm/

Full BRC report is not made public until later today but looks like some good data supporting a lift this morning.

This link looks like a good summary in the meantime (including Barclay's credit card spending), seems to be department stores and home & dining uplifts rather than clothes that are driving things this morning:

https://uk.fashionnetwork.com/news/More-evidence-of-weak-retail-as-barclays-and-brc-say-fashion-has-tough-month,1611055.html#chanel

Ah, 200 daily moving average, we’ve been expecting you!

Right, where were we? Ah yes, MKS in a reversal downtrend :( Is there no end to this madness? Yes, but perhaps not yet :/

The January retail data was a bit confusing. The BRC report on 6 Feb did not paint a rosy picture but the ONS report on 16 Feb was much better overall, except for clothing, and this appeared to support the mid>late Feb rise in the SP off the back of it.

I have mentioned a couple of times the news void until FY results in May (still two and a half months away) and that void is, unfortunately, currently being filled with the negative press around the Ocado situation, with nothing on the full group activity to counter it in the short term. The February BRC report is due out at midnight tonight so that may be the next catalyst, the ONS report is not due until 22 March.

Chartwise - we skipped the anticipated dip to the rising 200DMA at 225 but the SP has now resumed course and looks like tagging it at 227 in the next day or two (unless tonight’s BRC is awesome, dude). The first gap to 224 is lurking just beneath - like some kind of ominous sharp toothed trap type of thing - and the full H&S pattern still has plenty of time to complete to close the second gap at 204. Ouch!

Regret to inform that I do still see this concluding around 200-204 unless there is significant positive news to counter it this month. Other than the retail data we are looking at you Easter bunny…what joy will you have for us?

Meanwhile, I’m off to find a sledgehammer and a map of Oxford Street…

Usual research caveats and pub rules apply, all just thoughts for consideration with no advice intended. I don’t like being this pessimistic but it is my honest view, at this time.

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For past ref:

The BRC doom:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202401_uk_rsm/

The ONS sunshine(ish):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/january2024

The reduction equates to about 5 days production from the Nov/Dec average.

Could the major storms in January (Isha and Joceyln, 21st-24th) have had an impact, or is the AM sufficiently robust and secure enough to continue normal operations through them? Just wondering if they might have locked down or detached in advance as a precaution and then took a couple more days to get back up to speed after? Or maybe affected supply vessels attending?

Thanks laser, that does now seem to be in line with most other providers, and it does look right from a tax perspective as trading the DCUs themselves doesn't qualify for ISA tax exemption as not done freely on an exchange.

We discussed the different treatments last time and several posters said they still received the payment into their ISA regardless, and consensus was that was correct as well as it relates to payment for shares that used to be held there. Wait and see where your provider pays it into at end of month...

"because there yearly report,scared every one" - They haven't issued a yearly report yet, the update on 4th Jan was just the peak season one up to end of December, although the profit miss that they indicated was an estimate for the FY24, up to 3rd Feb.

The March statement will be "a full-year trading outcome update in March, including our initial guidance for FY25." So that will include January trading up to the year end as well, and we don't yet know the impact of any sales/discounts that were needed in that month, although they did state "As we approach the year end, we remain comfortable with our current inventory position." so it's in the balance.

Note that JD do not normally issue a FY update in March, we would normally have to wait for the final results in May, but they are having to do so this year to clarify the situation. They would normally have included guidance for the current year in the January update but were obviously unable to do so at the time.

Yes, your tax affairs are a private matter between you and HMRC, regardless of what providers decide to do.

Do you mean they moved the DCU holding to your trading account, or did they make an adjustment to move the payment you received last September/October?

Last September Prax issued a press notice and a Payment Calculation Statement on or just before the pay date, which this time should be Thursday 28th March by my reckoning. They should be published on their website so maybe bookmark this and check around then:

https://www.prax.com/information-for-holders-of-dcus/

Some good brokers also issued a note to their customers via their usual channels when the payment was made.

Note that it is not a dividend and shouldn’t be treated as such, it’s a deferred consideration for part of the purchase of the Hurricane shares you used to hold and should be treated as a capital payment.

Top of the post covid uptrend is c.£3.70 at Easter at end of this month, normally a busy family weekend. Just a little boost for household discretionary in the budget next week would be nice as well. Hopefully all reflected well in the HY 31/3 trading update due mid April could then push things on - I agree with £4 as a reasonable target with maybe a pause around that obvious psychological level?

Still have buy-backs to resume at some point once volatility settles down, to underpin recent advances. 10 days in row closing above pre covid high of 315 - I'm going to stop tracking that now!

Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/MKS/ms-wins-legal-battle-against-uk-government-over-demolition-of-store-5zxtxjlr6jbv323.html

Hold the phone! BOWL will be promoted to the 250 on Tuesday next week, 5th March. It fell just 4 places short of automatic qualification for the March rebalance on the 18th, however, LXI REIT have a merger approved and will therefore be removed from the 250 with BOWL as the highest placed in the small-cap index getting their place.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/LXI/londonmetric-property-2t3xxfrlla7m134.html

And it's going to happen 2 weeks earlier than if it was automatic qualification!

And that's now 9 days running closed above the previous high of 315.

And the buy-backs are still paused.

Well that was a bit of a damp squid* so far!

PCE came in down and bang on estimate, jobless claims a little higher. Need to see what direction the market takes now...

* I know, I know - just leave it ;) Also, squid don't know that they are damp, that's just normal to them.

Best wishes, whatever you decide to do.

It sounds like you have maybe got yourself down a rabbit hole of over-analysis trying to find answers to unknowables? Maybe take a step back and try a more objective/holistic view, focus your energy on the things you can control rather than all the things you can't? Way too many variables at this stage for anything else, IMO.

I posted a couple of days ago that Prax will pay out whatever their reading of the scheme will be. I don't personally think they will try to 'dodge' anything on the DCU aspect because the statements are audited and submitted to one of the O&G governing bodies I think (can't recall the exact details from the Deed poll for now). We will get what we get regardless of what's posted on here, but we are also now aware enough to spot if anything looks out of line.

The bigger unknown is the potential for a deal, and that won't be known until anything is actually announced.

I, for one, am not going to try guessing any future outcomes or even try to narrow the range of possibilities I presented before. No good can come of it.