Member Info for Corryvreckan1

Senseman - thank you for your calculations below. Important I think to highlight - for anyone less knowledgeable or just skim reading these posts - that the increase per offload you have given is an effective net gain over time from having more frequent offloads due to a higher production rate. They don't correspond directly to each 'individual' offload DCU payments that will be receivable, rather that there is a chance of more offloads contributing to each half yearly payment over time, so the overall position gets closer to the 12.5p total.

I have run some indicative calcs on what each offload could pay at current time. There are assumptions built in here because of various unknowns, and I haven't tried to guess what average Brent would be receivable in any specific month (it was $84.94 applied to the last payment = payment of 0.309p per DCU).

For costs I have taken those detailed in the Sept 23 payment notice as indicative for each offload. For total DCUs from the scheme documents - 1,991,871,556. FX I have used recent average estimate of 1.265 £/$ (it was 1.25 applied last Sept). Offload volume held flat at 540k bbl for ease of comparison.

Indicative possible outcomes per 540k offload:

$pbbl - Gross$ - Costs$ - Net$ - £/$ FX - Equiv £ - % due - Total due £ - per DCU

$75 - 40.5m - $1.9m - $38.6m - 1.265 - £30.52m - 17.5% - £5,340,336 - 0.268p

$80 - 43.2m - $1.9m - $41.3m - 1.265 - £32.65m - 17.5% - £5,713,854 - 0.287p

$85 - 45.9m - $1.9m - $44.0m - 1.265 - £34.78m - 17.5% - £6,087,372 - 0.306p

$90 - 48.6m - $1.9m - $46.7m - 1.265 - £36.92m - 17.5% - £6,460,889 - 0.324p

Consensus here last month was that the end Dec/into Jan offload was 'unlikely' to be included in the upcoming payment (so 2 offloads - c.0.6p total per DCU), and that 3 offloads were then likely for the Sept 24 payment. It's all moving targets though so these are all just best guesses and not to be taken literally.

Prax will pay out whatever they think they should pay out from their reading of the scheme document and we will know in a month's time exactly what that will be (payment is due Thursday 28th March).

Best to all, and all the usual caveats and pub rules apply to the above ;o)

Further observations:

SP ticking up even without support from the BB this week;

Interesting volume of afterhours horse-trading being going on this week, with trade prices to three decimal which often indicates IIs are involved;

And here's the rub - it seems to have gone under the radar but there is now a half chance* that BOWL could be promoted to the FTSE250 next month. Just in line at close today I think, decision will be based on closing MCap on Tuesday and announced after close on Wednesday.

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* Let's call it 8 down with a clear chance at a spare in the 10th frame, extra ball wins the match on Tuesday ;o)

Still ticking up nicely here, and a nice dividend paid out today perhaps being re-invested will help.

Not entirely sure why the buybacks have stalled the last two weeks, perhaps the volatility has taken it outside a permitted daily/WAP range in the short term?

It always comes off at the open on ex-div day so would normally be gapped down on the bell. Anyone buying yesterday would not be entitled to the upcoming divi so that's why it should be cheaper for them to buy from market open.

Yesterday's picture was a bit confusing at open though, partly due to Nvidia and the chaos it caused to algos the night before, but any volatility generally can sometimes 'hide' the gap down.

It's possible they were sitting just below 3% previously, perhaps from purchases much lower last year, and then took the opportunity this month to buy the dip to top up?

The whole sector is down today, can only think it's the weaker consumer confidence data this morning?

It's based on the closing MCap on Tues 27th Feb, announcement to confirm changes will be after market close on Wed 28th. The index rebalancing is then effective from Mon 18th March.

EDV has taken another kicking yesterday and today so it's looking okay at this point.

It's an occasional glitch in the LSE system, happens a few times a year and is across the whole platform. Sometimes they catch up with the data feed later in the day but there are a few like this where they just never appear. Agree with your approach to always have other sources you can rely on.

4.5p of today's drop is the ex-div being factored in. Oil prices pushing a little higher as well.

Standard market dynamics that are creating a bit of short term volatility.

As it is for well over 90% of UK listed companies announcing a dividend.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/EZJ/uk-dividends-calendar-next-7-days-jbsuqq3j552mmd2.html

You are right that you need to be holding the shares at close tonight if you wish to receive the dividend, standard settlement applies at T+2 which is why the record date for the dividend is Friday.

If you place an order to buy them today you will receive the dividend, if you sell them tomorrow you still receive the dividend, if you sell them today you do not.

The 'relative' MCaps of EZJ and EDV don't really matter to the decision. As it stands EZJ are still outside of automatic entry so would only be promoted if EDV (or another existing 100) are dropped out, or if the EZJ SP rises to c.580+.

As it stands, if the EDV share price (now up to 1320) recovers to over 1360 then they won't drop out to make space for EZJ, so need to keep an eye on both of them next Tuesday.

Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brasil_(mythical_island)

;0)

Retail sales data:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/january2024

Full release:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/january2024

Always useful to see the data in that format. I expect her table will be updated from end January values this weekend; FTSE Russell announce their indicative changes on Tuesday next week based on the values at close tomorrow.

It's based on the closing MCap on Tues 27th Feb, announcement to confirm changes will be after market close on Wed 28th. The index rebalancing is then effective from Mon 18th March.

Could be tight for Kier at around this level, depending also on how other companies around the same level perform before then.

Perhaps more caution than pessimism? Still have US retail sales report tomorrow afternoon and then UK retail sales on Friday morning. This is the BRC report for January which will be reflected in Friday's data:

https://brc.org.uk/insight/content/retail-sales/retail-sales-monitor/reports/202401_uk_rsm/

In other news:

"BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 1500 GMT on Wednesday."

Nooooo!!! He needs to be stopped - grab yer pitchforks, we're a marchin' on the City...

They're talking about June now as a possibility, March is defo out now if was not already. And this morning's UK data has maybe pushed the BoE back to August.

Got out of my little gold problem by the skin of my teeth - £1.35 gain for three weeks of stress :(

Fuq!

Lovely shade of red everywhere except the $ - just in time for Valentine's Day...

TR-1 RNS:

Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached vi: 21/7/2023

They are very, very late with that notification, looks like a bit of housekeeping has maybe picked up the omission.