Member Info for clairesmith

the facts:
shorts have been in position a long time and need to close to realize profits, and the share has reached strong support and moving up.
The share volume has been consolidated with Fraser Group taking a 5% position.
now is the biggest clothing shopping period with winter and xmas.
the UK population has increased by 500k people that will be adding extra money into the market.
Asos has a large volume of inventory on hand, which given the production bottlenecks means they have volume to meet consumer demands.
inflation is now starting to level, and we will soon see money flood into the market by hedge funds to buy shares up cheap and hold while the macros market returns.

this should be up around the 9's entering the 10's in december

look at the shares traded the past 3 days, each time the shares naturally rise there is a sell attack.

also look at the shorts, the only way this share has fallen again from the 7's was because of 2 new short positions being opened on the 18 Nov 2022 ( AHL Partners LLP and Squarepoint Ops LLC), but then on the 22 Nov 2022 Citadel Advisors LLC the drop caused by the 18th Nov shorts to close some of their short position.

also look at new census data, 500k extra people in the UK, that is alot of extra people to clothe = more revenue for Asos

and clothing is one of the highest purchased goods for teens and early twenties over the Xmas season, which is asos main market

the shorts have had their fun, however they are now trapped and desperately need to get out.
holiday spending is here, shipping costs are down, and asos holding lots of inventory means they are one of the few retailers that can serve consumers ad in a dominant position.
look at the share trading this past week, every time the price rises the shorts attack to hold down unnaturally.

Price consolidated!
Shorts getting stuck, and need to close their position before the Xmas retail sales period macro starts to move the price back up.
Shipping costs coming down, oil coming down, Europe has enough gas, and inflation has leveled out!
Re-rate on the cards, lots of profit to be made!
ASOS FOR THE WIN

some great share holder consolidation happening.
and we still have the shorts to buy back 7.5% of the shares!
once any big buys happen this will rocket back to the 8's fast!

Looking good for a return to better market times and a massive rerate on this share price.
Shipping costs are coming down, oil costs reducing, and the EU has enough gas supplies to cover all this winter and well into next year.
People are adjusting to inflation and spending has stayed stable with relatively good economics health.
And Xmas plus winter clothing shopping is now here, so expect Asos to be getting lots of revenue and with their new processes should be getting improved margins.

the price drop the past week has been good to clear out weak hands and churn share holders.
looking through the sell data for today its mostly small sells and autos.
As such, once the big buyers start again in the next day or so this will rise quickly.
shipping costs coming down, Asos in a consolidated market with a strong position, making for more revenue and profit increase.
could see this back in the 9's by end of December

Looking good for a stable bottom now, after going through a buy/sell consolidation cycle.
Looks like the large sells are done, and with the shorts needing to close position, there is potential for big buys.

Commodities and logistics prices are coming down now making the profit margin increase, and now with the xmas sales season starting, there is a fantastic opportunity from here.

I wonder if we will see a takeover offer while the price is still low, as once we get into next year the markets will have adjusted and consumer spending will return to a level.

well, landed back in the 6's like i said it would.
Time to buy everything you can of this share before the shorts start to aggressively close their positions as last time the share will be down here.
Xmas spending is on the way, and the worst economic news is out.
load and hold and make lots of profit on the natural rise back up!

just had an RNS of T Rowe selling some shares.
If you look at the last 3 RNS Holdings reports, it is of T Rowe selling, and each time has been the time of a share price drop, and then they buy more shares again.
As such, they have been one of the main factors when the price drops.
As such, expect this to rise again soon, now they have finished selling

looks like there will be an opportunity to buy more in the 6's.
hopefully the pull down which help with consolidation as such a good thing for a more healthy rise.

Good to see Trainline in profit.
Being an embedded and essential service that is constantly used by the populace, means more guarantee to revenue streams.
Great time to load up on shares, with their rollout to international regions now maturing looks like they will be yielding higher revenues and profits.

could see this in the 6 again for a bit, the markets are trying to liquid more generally and limited risk

nice buy went through mid-day Friday:

Date: 11-Nov-22
Time: 11:02:35
Volume: Buy: 75,000
Value: £483.75k

Looks like everyone is loading up ready for good results and the divident

HeresHopin, Im still holding, so either i'm wrong and make more money from the price rise, or Im right and much auto sell triggers and I buy up more at discount and make more money.
Either way its win win for me with this share.
and if you have looked at my comment history, you will see that I have taken a position in Focusrite (tune), and if you read what Ive said there its all research to demonstrate what that shares is undervalued, so actually I do take the time to research and understand the market.

i sold and bought back in twice the past few days.
and i am a long term bull for Asos.
however lets me real for a moment, alot of stocks have risen 20% in the past few days, and the market has not materially improved or changed much, as such it appears the past couple of days are pump and dump by the big funds.
and tomorrow looks like the day they drop everything again.... so good chance can buy up more asos shares at a lower price than it finished today

There was £1.181 million (GBP) worth of shares bought today with those 6 trades

Alot of buying and loading up happening now.
Looks like the dividend and good results are going to take this back to its rightful place

Date Time Volume
10/11/22 14:58:04 33854
10/11/22 15:01:17 35000
10/11/22 15:01:24 35000
10/11/22 15:02:01 35000
10/11/22 12:22:12 21643
10/11/22 12:22:02 21042

this and a lot of companies that magically went up after 13pm today will more than likely drop tomorrow.
There is a lot of stock in hand now that was brought low with a 20%+ profit margin, so will see alot of people exit before the weekend starts

Global pro speakers market is expected to reach $2502 million by 2027
Market size, measured by revenue, of the Global Music Production and Distribution industry, is $34.0bn in 2022
The Global Music Production Equipment Market is expected to grow by $1.27 bn during 2022-2026

Dividend coming:
Declaration date: 22 Nov 2022 (Tue)
Ex-div date: 29 Dec 2022 (Thu)
Pay date: 30 Jan 2023 (Mon)

Price appears to have fallen from 800 and been held down due to 3 specific days of large trades:
01/11/22 489429 shares
18/10/22 595930 shares
14/09/22 414236 shares

In the past 252 Share Trading Days, 36 days have traded above 100k shares, 10 to 100k shares is 199 trading days.
There are only 59 million shares and as such with the limited availability of this share.
Looking through the share sales data it appears that this share is easily affected by large trades.
The frequency of large trades is relatively low.

30/08/2022 TTM Currency in GBP. All numbers in thousands
Total revenue: 171,542
Cost of revenue: 89,841
Gross profit: 81,701

30/08/2021 Currency in GBP. All numbers in thousands
Total revenue: 173,935
Cost of revenue: 89,805
Gross profit: 84,130

30/08/2020 Currency in GBP. All numbers in thousands
Total revenue: 130,141
Cost of revenue 70,248
Gross profit 59,893

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