Member Info for clairesmith

less than 1% of the available shares got some on the 19th Jan, and there was a 30% drop in price.
Looking at the main holders, they have broadly kept their positions, and I would expect that they will now be looking to massively average down their price and will be buying up lots while the share price is low.

I expect with a large buy and some consolidation next week this can fast return to 180 levels.
And from them start to build back over the 200 with the dividend on the way.

the drop on the 19th Jan was to be expected. Look at the whole stock market over the past 6 months, it does not matter what news good/bad is released there is an overreaction from the market, as this is a lot of jitters and fear.

However, the facts will win:
Company looking £200m + profit.
The company is resolving the LA hub issues and appears that a flood of revenue from the USA market is coming.
The brand is well-known, and respected, and has a growing base in the youth market.
Retail and consumer brands and shares have had a very rough time since May 2021, so Doc Martens have felt the same downward trend as everyone and will get the same bounce upwards.

GLA = DYOR

The company is still on track to record a good profit and another dividend is expected.
The costs to fully activate the USA market and grow sales revenue have now been confirmed, with guidance aligned.

I'm sure after a very public announcement of the LA hub situation and the dramatic price drop, the BoD will be keeping a more vigilant eye and hand on the operations, and hope this is the shock to the system that ensures a more prudent management of the company and market.

I think Doc Martens have done a very good job of adapting to the market and cementing their position as an iconic brand. They are much loved and looking at the numbers they have a growing fan base in Gen-Z.
The synthetic and artificial-leather growth market is going to be massive, with better profit margins, and Doc Marten has been spending their time developing their sales channel internationally, so when these products start to flow there will be a ready-made activated sales channel and brand awareness.

Looking at its market development, product range, and costings it is a solid business on paper.
The fashion markets have changed in the past decades, with luxury brands becoming semi-ubiquitous maintaining their higher profit margins with growing a large volume consumer base, look at Louis Vuitton, Chanel etc..
Doc Martens now sits in the category of brand appreciation and high profitability, and they have now developed their sales channels.

The IPO price is the target, we are now at a level where lots of profit can be made from here to there.

We now have the news that the situation with the LA hub is on the path to being live soon.

Making a consistent profit, with the low share price since the IPO, does now make them a favorable commercial opportunity for a takeover.
In theory, at even a £3b takeover, with a £300m+ a year profit, the deal pays for itself in 8-10 years.
Factoring in world population growth, the move to synthetic leather with improved costings, and having a more ideal global logistics system in place, we can see the potential of the profits moving into the £430m to £550m a year range.
The IPO launch price was at this expected MCAP level, derived from a PE of 10 to 12, and now we are at a PE of 7.7
Massive value opportunity now the price is here.

Why Nike:
Dr Martens has a similar legacy as Chuck Taylors All Stars trainers, which Nike bought.
Nike could do with having a great boot brand under them that matches their street and brand appeal.
Dr Martens have gone through all the hard work to set up and already make a profit, so picking up a thriving brand/business at a relatively low price.
Within 2 years Nike could streamline the operations and material costs into Nike's setup, therefore making Dr Martens an even more profitable brand.
Opens up Nike to collaborations with Dr Martens and current culture icons and designers to widen the brand appeal and styles of boots/trends, and expand into emerging markets of the MEA and JPAC

Also, this is a perfect stock target for pension firms to get a dividend stock for consistent payment.
Now we are seeing a bounce back of the general market, there will be a rush by the pensions to pick up shares of dividend companies while they are "cheap".
Next week could be a very strong march back to the 1.8 regions.

a massive opportunity now to make some good profit over the next month from here
the pension funds will be eating this up now for a good dividend-to-share cost ratio.
MCAP to profit is very good, a known brand with broadly speaking global operations running and in place.

yesterday was the largest day of trades in the past year with 21m shares traded.
Alot of the big dumps from 170 to 150 will be buying back in now.

Company in profit, looking at trend for £1b in revenue with £200m profit.
Pension funds are buying up to get the stock for the dividends, as dividend and guaranteed return is the call of the day.

The delay in shipments in California means there will be great growth coming as they can now fulfill orders, so expect the company to get a big bounce back.
Doc Martens are in fashion now, plus a massive loyal customer base = big revenues coming.

yeah, a good level to get in at.
De La Rue has the contract to print money for the BoE extended until 2028, and with Charles now King, they need to replace a lot of notes.
Over 60% of the company is held by major investors, so free-float is smallish.
At this low price, there is potential for Crystal Amber to increase their holding to average down their price, or they could go for a takeover and asset strip the company, worth a lot more than £450m for contracts, patents, and brands.

the fact that they requested it means something, otherwise, why do it?
Also if the company was to start buying up shares it realistically would be sooner while the price is so low, rather than in a couple of months when the price might be double the current valuation.

The BoD has been very clever, in that they have built their opportunity to make lots of money via bonus approval and share buy-back options, which means they will be working hard to show profits which is great news for shareholders.

looking forward to getting tomorrow over and done, the results don't matter anymore, what's now important is the growth of profit margins over the next few months and gearing to the current market climate.

Having such a large short position at this point in the game is also great, and i'm getting rather excited for the day the
dam bursts and this share rockets.

ASOS are THE fashion retailer in town nowadays. Fashion vendors will support them more as ASOS can take large volumes of stock to ensure revenue to the vendors. The fashion vendors wont want to open new physical locations due to the market and operating costs, so less direct competition with ASOS.

Alongside this TOP SHOP has proved to be a great acquisition as now ASOS are reaping the rewards of having their own brand/products to sell directly to consumers.

I watched the live stream of the AGM and you could see how relaxed and happy the directors are. We are now moving back to the great days of Asos.

its a great move by the BoD as;
1) buy shares to give staff for motivation, and to lure great talent into the company with share allocation
2) the company owning 5% of the shares gives the BoD more power to stop or approve a take over bid
3) only 100m share in total, so them taking 5% of the shares out of the market helps to consolidate the free float

results of AGM RNS:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ASC/result-of-agm-o18ggy8vubvgz0b.html

The section:
14. To authorise the Company to make market purchases of own shares**
Vote Approval: 99.28%
And the amount they have approved for purchase is 5 million shares

Great news from the ASOS AGM today, they have approved the purchase of 5 million shares back from the market.

Let's get tomorrow out of the way, and start the road back up!

https://www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/56979/taking-the-shine-off-shein-hazardous-chemicals-in-shein-products-break-eu-regulations-new-report-finds/

“Greenpeace Germany’s findings show that the use of hazardous chemicals underpins SHEIN’s ultra fast fashion business model, which is the opposite of being future-proof. SHEIN products containing hazardous chemicals are flooding European markets and breaking regulations – which are not being enforced by the authorities. But it’s the workers in SHEIN’s suppliers, the people in surrounding communities and the environment in China that bear the brunt of SHEIN’s hazardous chemical addiction. At its core, the linear business model of fast fashion is totally incompatible with a climate-friendly future – but the emergence of ultra fast fashion is further accelerating the climate and environmental catastrophe and must be stopped in its tracks through binding legislation. Alternatives to buying new must become the new norm.”

“Greenpeace is calling for the EU to enforce its laws on hazardous chemicals – which are a basic requirement for achieving a circular textiles economy and the end of fast fashion, as set out in the EU’s own Textiles Strategy.” said Wohlgemuth. “But the EU’s proposals also need to take on the inhuman system of exploitation and destruction by ultra fast fashion that should have no place in any industry in the 21st century, by holding companies fully responsible for environmental and social exploitation in their supply chains and the impacts from fashion waste. This also needs to be urgently addressed through a global treaty, similar to the recently agreed UNEA plastics treaty that is currently being discussed, to finally tackle the giant fashion footprint.” said Wohlgemuth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-11-21/shein-s-cotton-clothes-tied-to-xinjiang-china-region-accused-of-forced-labor

Now looking likely that either Shein might get banned from trading in USA/EU/UK, or if they stop using cheap slave-produced cotton and clothing their prices will go up and be less competitive

The new hire, Wei Gao is also part of a Venture PartnerVenture Partner at the investment firm Madrona.
So either there could be a takeover with private equity if bear hug comes from MA.
Either way, opening Asos to alternative lending facilities is great, as this also makes sure the regular banks play nice or lose a client.

BoD has done the hard work of shaking out the issues into the daylight.
Share price at one of the lowest since May 2010.

Asos has a market-dominant position, with a loyal growing customer base.
Ownership of Top Shop and other in-house brands yielding more profit margins.
Good growth in USA, EU, and Australia for the international market.

To buy up Asos, and have a market-ready business with a client base is a golden opportunity.
As there is no majority holder (more than 50%) that means a bear hug takeover could happen very quickly.

My posts are meant to be both educational and fun. if you can't tell what a joke is, then you will be in real difficulty when trying to review a marked positon to under what direction to take.

Also, i never said i sold, i'm still holding. why would i see a share at the bottom, surely thats the name of the game.

none of you boys have any guts on here left, at these basement prices retail investors could unite to buy this company!
Times have changed. Retail investors with our easy access to the market make us a force to be reckoned with.

Check my posting recent history, Focusrite / Strix / Marstons, I spent time researching the market and picking stocks with potential.

Asos is in a strong position for the following;
1) Integrated and loyal customer base that is growing
2) ownership of brands that are now yielding more profit margins (Top Shop et al)
3) Change of C-Suite and BoD, with a new focus/insight approach to streamline costs with growth
4) Asos has hired ex-Nike senior exec to grow their sportswear which could see a great increase in revenue
5) Asos partnerships with delivery specialists to reduce costs and keep transitions volumes high
6) a potential takeover target by Anders Holch Povlsen or by Mike Ashley, or a US / ME private equity fund

seems like this at the floor, and at the lowest point, however, if Asos gets back to profit then the upside here is massive.

Looking at the web results for Nov 2022, they seem to be back on track.

Asos Website Traffic up 16.98% - got 104m visits in NovThu 14:32
Total Visits: 104.5M

With Joule being bought by Next, the fashion market becomes ever more controlled by a few key operators.
Fraser group's 5% holding in Asos, and their 34% holding in Hugo Boss, with the new CEO in place, showing signs of potentially more takeovers while the market is at its lowest.

I can see a massive opportunity here with Asos for 2 potentials:
1) At some point the market will rebound, the amount of consumers has grown, however, their individual purchasing volumes have temporarily reduced in the face of macroeconomic effects, as such once those have resolved with a large consumer base returning to normalized individual spending there will be a great increase in revenue streams.
Even at its lowest in 2020, the MCAP was £1b, double what it is now, so lots of upside just to that level.

2) Asos could be taken over. one can speculate, however, a nice bid in the £2b range could be considered.
And looking at the makeup of the major shareholders it would make sense for Anders Holch Povlsen, as he owns 26% of the company and can merge it into Zalando.

You only need these major holders to vote for the merger and acquisition:
Combined they own 52.3% of the company:

Aktieselskabet 26.00%
Camelot Capital Partners LLC 11.00%
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (Investment Management) 5.68%
Baillie Gifford & Co. 5.41%
T. Rowe Price International Ltd. 4.29%

Could we see a takeover bid soon from Fraser Group?
Their MO is to buy businesses at rock bottom prices, and in context the current Asos price is rock bottom, considering their lowest price in 2020 (covid market crash) was 1060 (nearly double the current price).

Now if ever would be the best chance for Fraser to takeover Asos, remove a competitor and grow market share.

Total Visits: 104.5M
Last Month Change: 16.98%

Fantastic growth in key financial affluent regions:

United Kingdom
12.24% increase in web traffic
United States
29.70% increase in web traffic
Australia
26.33% increase in web traffic
France
20.84% increase in web traffic
Germany
6.14% increase in web traffic

Whats your thoughts MurMurs, some big buys on the way while at this low price?