Member Info for clairesmith

this share is toxic.

the UK is screwed. The mini-budget is purely designed to help a very small group of Tories mates.
The stamp duty removal will mean that house prices will rise to each up that delta, so buyers are not benefiting and will have to pay more due to larger mortgages, and this will further drain disposable cash out of the economy.
if the government want to drive growth they should have reduced VAT to 15%, as consumer spending is the biggest engine in the economy.

this is a massive takeover opportunity.
pay £1.6B and get a company with £4b revenue.
price and profits only down due to wider market issues.
so buy now and in a couple of years make the money back plus triple!!!!!!!!!!!!

perfect opportunity for Fraser Group to acquire Asos while cheap and they can.
combined the 2 orgs would then have the power to start pushing operations internationally and realise Mike's bigger vision.
If Asos get acquired by an investment firm, or someone from USA/UEA then that could spell disaster for Fraser Group as Asos could be very aggressive in the market.

could see a bid coming soon, bargain price to acquire a juggernaut of a company

Yep, once the first bid lands there will be a bidding war.
seems reasonable that the first bid will be high to immediately remove lowball offers, so looking at £16 (£1.6B total), range to start discussions.
However as others have said, the realistic takeover price could be between £18 to £22 a share.

Indeed, Asos certainly looks like a good acquisition target.
They have great revenue and are currently being hampered by the broader market.
With the assets, brands, market reach, and establish channel network, they are prime for an investment firm to acquire for around £1.6b to £2.2b (MCAP x 3).
Take over the company, run due diligence to make sure business operations are as smooth and profitable as can be, ensure strong production channels to avoid bottlenecks to consumers, and ensure the best purchasing prices.
Keep churning for a year while expanding profitable product ranges and growing the overall number of users, then once the general markets begin to move up this results in a strong return on investment.
Reap a few hundred million over a few years and then either sell off to make a larger total profit or float back on the stock market to reap from a large share sell.

This could be a good target for Fraser Group, as taking over Asos for around £1.6B, revenue that had been going to a rival is now moving to them, plus they can combine for overall cost savings, and solidify their position as the dominant fashion retailer. Then springboard into emerging economies of eastern europe, middle east, and africa, bulding up over the next decade while the economies modernise and growing a large consumer class.

overall happy with their trade statement.
we all know this was due and what the numbers might be like, and not that bad.
also it's the sign of the org saying they are on the floor, as such the shorts have no other ammunition to drive this share down further.
As such this is now an investment share, with macroeconomic taking hold.
So a great time to buy, and hold for a nice profit.

Having that big a short position over Asos while the share price is this far down is a great opportunity.
The shorts need to buy 6.5 million shares (6.5% of all available), to realize profits.
Once the first short breaks cover it will be a mad dash to buy up available stock before the share price sky rockets, and this will add a push to the price.
looking at this company, brand / reach / audience / past performance / IP etc... then giving a fair market value MCAP of £2.3billion seems about right.

yeah, looking through all the other recent revenue and profit reports from various fashion retailers, it appears that business is still going well, and if Asos parallel this they should still be on track to have a good year.
Add to this the fact that web traffic to Asos has remained high, with Asos still being one of the dominant players in the online retail space.

Also, we now have all the kids buying clothing for Autumn/Winter, because there this is essential due to them physically growing and needing it.
Also, Uni students all head back, with clothing alongside laptops being the biggest purchase from now until mid-October.
And then we have Xmas, with the trend for most 12 to 17-year-olds getting clothing over most other items, as the people have only known life with digital pictures and the internet, and they want/have/must have new clothing to look cool to their friends and the online world.

overall, as others have said, getting shares at this price is great as an investor.
With asos having cash in the bank is a saving grace.
and come Monday when the new tory leader is elected, there will be a slew of new policies released to deal with the energy crisis and cause the markets to go full bull mode.

Dimi - if you look at the retail market you can see that most (almost all) shares are down this year, this is not unique asos.
yet all trade statements are coming out negative, while at the same time the fashion retailers are posting record revenue and profit.

5th Sept, new PM, and the start of the new bull cycle.

a lot of data is pointing to Asos having a great year so far:

Web traffic is still over 98 million visits a month and is still a leading online retailer.

Nordstrom revenue and profit up reported last week.

Shoe Zone revenue and profit up, reported today.

Next are maintaining their guidance for full-year profit before tax at £850m, which would be up +3.3% versus last year.

JD Sports: Wed, 22nd Jun 2022 07:00 "This was another period of outstanding progress with the Group delivering a record headline profit before tax and exceptional items of £947.2 million (2021: £421.3 million), more than double the previous record of £438.8 million set in the period to 1 February 2020"

University just started (mass influx of students buying new clothing).
Autumn and Winter expect bumper clothing sales to fight cold weather and avoid high energy household costs.

Asos has eclipsed the other brands to become a ubiquitous fashion retail platform more in the ilk of a supermarket (Tesco/ASDA et al).

This is the key difference and why Asos ultimately is the main player in the market, and why a takeover now should be very tempting to an investor.

It would be safe to say 99% of all UK 12 to 45 years olds have heard of Asos, with a large proportion having used the service.

They made a very wise decision in purchasing a lot of product and loading up their warehouse, as we have seen there are still constrictions in the production, as such Asos have plenty of merchandise in hand to feed a steady stream of clients.

The current negative market situation is affecting everyone.
However, by Asos having cash in the bank, they can play it patiently, maintain revenue and increase profits.

They have a new CEO, new major investors (JP Morgan, Mike Ashley), and has gained market position over 2020/22 have become a major dominant fashion retailer, and with expansion in the US (Nordstrom, second quarter, net sales increased 12.0 percent versus the same period in fiscal 2021), expansion in the EU, and looking worldwide.

seems like at the floor, and the biggest selling season of Autumn/Winter and Xmas is upon us.

Combined with uni students using their loans to get clobber and the general purchase of new warmer/waterproof clothing for the population.

well, the northern hemisphere of the western world gets back from holiday next week.

this past July/August has been rather economically slow with lots of holidays and relaxing due to the extended hot summer.
However, you can feel the urgency coming into the air of work and life progression happening from next week.

the big wheels are turning to fight inflation now to drive the markets, if consumer spending dries up or is hampered by the cost of energy then this will cause more wide economic downturn, as such one can envisage that actions will be put into place to ensure either caps on energy or financial support to inject money into the economy.

expect this to make a strong recovery from here to xmas, a nice ramp up with lots of profit potential.

The share price has been drifting since the 2nd July 2021.
It has followed the general market consensus, and negative outlook path to bring the price down.

However, the company is still operating, has cash reserves, and is fully established within the chain of fashion retail that when consumer purchasing grows again they will be able to capitalize fast, rise sea lifts all boats.

Asos having stock to hand is a blessing, consider that there are reports in the channel of stock constriction.

Overall if Asos can reach similar revenue and profit levels as early 2021 then looks like a healthy share price rise from here.

Seems like a big share consolidation happening, wonder if we will see another major holder notice soon.

Coresight Research - research on supply chain data identifies key challenges and opportunities for data sharing and monetization among FMCG suppliers and retailers:

41% of FMCG suppliers and retailers reported that out-of-stocks/low OSA (on-shelf availability) is a current supply chain challenge. Low OSA is a major driver of customer dissatisfaction and lost sales.

Source: https://coresight.com/research/discovering-hidden-treasure-in-your-supply-chain-data

What this means = Asos buying up lots of clothing to sell in H1 2022 was a smart decision as it means they have plenty of products to ensure they can fill orders and make lots of revenue.

certainly looks like some easy returns here, the drop has been a tad overdone, and institutional investors (JP Morgan) are increasing their position. This is a very good sign, and considering that broadly travel restrictions are coming down and we are expecting a return back to international travel numbers, the potential for TUI is great.

looking very solid bottom now indeed
topping up more while price is so low, the upside on some positive news is massive, and looking forward to getting a big payday for the summer

thank you for the gift, have just topped up and looking at getting more before the price moves.
come Monday the whole market will be aggressively raised to remove the cheap shares and get the MM and hedges more back into the profit zones after the past few weeks of prices tanking.

great company, strong market presence, entering period of high sales traffic and potential for big profit margin increase.

look forward to when back in the 2000's and laughing with champagne