Member Info for Claire2479

Thank you WeirdPal, esp. your view on production levels. Your cautionary tone on LIFT OFF is noted. What a great example of blending fundamentals and technicals - Brilliant x10!

Veronica et al on DMs. YES, it's a false dichotomy (check meaning) hence my rising anxiety. Maybe too nuanced for a BB without explanation My apologies for confusion arising. It was my LAME attempt at provoking discussion but tbh it was evidently useless - LOL! Now p...off and I'll see you in pub tomorrow.

Given today's more than reasonable (imho) update, is the SP set to soar? It's a question I have been mulling. The technicals (in the main) are suggesting the lows are in!

The only technical (out of 6) I use for LTI is the Bollinger Band and that is now resting just underneath a breakout pattern.

As my earlier posts inform, I only ask questions and I am NOT suggesting your own Buy advice. Seek IFA for that.

Interesting to see if others confirm - or otherwise.

Together with fundamentals, there does seem some long term SP turning patterns emerging.

On a personal level, I feel rising anxiety levels with the dichotomy of POO (related to terrible conflict) and rising SPs in the short term. It makes me feel very uncomfortable. Do others share?

GLA & have a good weekend.

Wider good - that is their own seld interests!

Scotiabank is owned by IIs. The same organisations shorting the life out of this company for wider good.

However, judge Q4 through 2025 perhaps 1H 2026.

I think Murray/Kate/ Board should be given some credit with their recent decision making. They are reducing costs, increasing organic growth and at last strategy is aligning with other oil majors. Looney was, ...well the name said it all!

IMHO this is a fantastic company that is getting hammered by short activity with an ulterior motive.

ATB

Sorry go with slight name inaccuracies. Essence remains.

Thanks Happy & Good Morning all.

I called it very similar to you but gosh your detail (so quick) is amazing - thank you.

The SP could be supported by events/POO, but lots to take into consideration as y11 said it's buy day - esp. after lunch!

The only point I'd make is that the US usually sees this as a good opportunity to short so day traders beware and trade off before pre-market - which seems to be getting earlier and earlier.

It's time for Murray and Kate to put some money down. Well done to Nina H though for some activity in Sept/Oct.

GLA

IMHO BP 750p @ 04/26

Invstrat: I totally agree with you.

It's turning very nasty on multi-fronts. No clear strategy being made public which is alarming me.

This could swiftly drag a wider coalition - inc ground troops - into this horrible conflict.

Unfortunately I fear a big weekend is coming up.

Firstly, well done to Hina H (Independent Director) for stumping up 5,000 x 2 lots in Sept & Oct (totalling £41.7k). Let's be honest, it's a start!

Now then others (Murray, I'm talking to you in particular - oh I wish I could!), let those shorts run for the hills. Put 6/7 figures on the table NOW and properly back your strategy. Those US shorts will S##t themselves. You know there is sculduggery in the trading houses across the pond who are attempting to sweep up an Oil Major on the cheap. They creep collectively under thresholds and it happens time and time again.

Back your present and former employees (via pension pots) right now.

Oh how I wish I could say that to him in person.

GLA and be safe on those markets.

More importantly, pray/ spare a thought for those innocent souls caught up in the Middle East right now. Servicemen - Thank You for your bravery.

Oh the vageries of a BB...

Denby: I get your point - I'd like advice too!!! However, the key word in your post is "if"

I only got started on here (no footprint anywhere else) as I am a bit suspicious about the shorting activities of BP stock under the 0.5% radar. Please refer to my 1st post the other day.

ATB

Auson, eg's: oil options, stock specific options (oil majors); reduce portfolio risk in certain categories / add risk in specific categories; rebalance portfolio eg. from 60/40 to 40/60 or perhaps 30/70 (stocks/bonds). - just some examples.

I don't want to be more specific for accusations of ramping - well aware of BB comments on that issue

Primetime51: lol!

I just wanted to express my deep caution for those who are fully invested in the money markets without hedge.

As most seem to think an Israeli/Coalition attack on Iran is imminent (and I concur), momentum in the oil markets seems to suggest that it could be sooner rather than later. Please at least hedge your money, or only invest with safe money. I am NOT giving anyone specific advice.

There is a pattern developing in the oil market between $70-$81 and then pullback to $75 (fib 50% - although mathematicians amongst us will realise this is strictly not a fib but used as one by a lot of traders) that a substantive wave 3 is about to commence. Given other news stories and the point in the week, I wanted you to at least be aware.

Everyone ultimately has to make their own decisions but please be careful or get some hedge if capital gains would apply etc (assuming you're a non-isa).

A quick question or two:

1. Would the US have spent $20B+ in 12 months and not decapitated the snake's head?

2. Has Israel/US provoked all along - re land grab point? [very controversially - how many believe Israel was actually asleep at the wheel last October?

3. How many weekends until US election? Strike starting just before - what % probability do you place on that?

4. Probability of democratic success in Nov?

5. What does Joe do if election is lost or subject to legal challenge - could you honestly call it?

6. Not much media coverage of high level meetings between Russians and Iranians - why?

Please note: I only ask questions for you to answer based on your own set of beliefs (beyond that investment style) and I recognise the world is a beautiful place with diversity so long as it remains peaceful.

Whatever you decide, GLA.

Please give a lot of thought to all those innocent people on BOTH sides of this particular terrible conflict. Remember too the VERY brave military personnel who are tasked to undertake the actions of our governments. If you're in a financial position to do so, please give generously to all those poor poor people in need.

God Bless.

While I would welcome diplomacy (always), I think we are beyond that point. It's so complicated (I've always been a master at the bleeding obvious!) but I now think there needs to be action taken against another nuclear threat in the region and there (imho) won't be another opportunity in time to seek a stop to a nuclear armed Iranian regime.

In the US, they will be deliberating a worse case scenario in the election and betting against a republican government doing anything about it except for sanctions on this and sanctions on that!

Agreed Prime 51,

interesting to watch shorts closing ahead of a strike - US will be all over it! I don't like to say it but a lot of money will be made in this market (oil) but the consequences for innocent lives makes me sad at the same time.

It shouldn't be underestimated the amount of protection the US will want to in the region first before Israel does eventually strike, esp. in and around the Strait of Hormuz. I have little doubt the collective response is going to be HUGE and is likely to be protracted. The great difficulty the US (and Israel will be listening, because it has to wrt US aid worth $billions) is public opinion at home wrt election. The world waits ....

It's so sad that a lot of innocent people are caught up and, I fear, a lot more lives are yet to be lost in order to bring long term peace and stability to both the region and beyond.

Correction to my last post:

BP 750p 04/26

I'd like to say it was a deliberate mistake to get people talking but in reality I'm dashing for my dinner and the fat finger syndrome struck - LOL!

BP @ 406p is oscillating between resistance c.419p (fib 38 retrace) and support c.375p (fib 50 retrace).

A retest at 375p is certainly possible but I don't believe (hope) the fib 62 retrace would be tested at 331p.

Current price is sitting in a trough (no surprises there!) and given Q3 results are a couple of weeks away, I wouldn't expect any meaningful advancement from 406p.

IMHO there is absolutely downside risk. BUT if Israel attack's Iran's Oil/Nuclear then that (obviously) is a game changer to upside. Given timings, best wait to Q3 results then reassess. Also factor not long after until US election.

Alot happening in this 3-week window and I think there is a lot of risk until all 2/3 events are out of the way.

Good luck to those who are topping up here. I'm a little bit more risk averse.

IMHO - BP 750p 04/25

Firstly, I'd like to thank all the main contributors to this forum - you know who you are. I'm so grateful for the knowledge you impart and often wonder why you bother when some contributors get too personal and aggressive. I, like many others I'm sure who watch from the upper circle (so to speak), am relieved you continue on here. I think it would be far easier for you to go to a more private and receptive forum for communicating with like minded people that it makes me very appreciative that you continue on here - thank you. I will never be able to understand the level of personal criticism at times when contributors' opinions are just that and - as far as I am aware - do not represent financial advice. The recent knowledge I learned recently about IEA and API inventories was unique to a forum like this and is not something I would have otherwise learned - many thanks to the contributor and please accept my sincere apologies that I can't name you at this time.

I tend to invest based on a stock's Technical set-up mainly (Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Bollinger, MACD in particular) as I believe private investors will never be able to compete with an II's foresight, advanced company strategy, (particularly pertinent with BP's shift of strategy just now), and (dare I say) advanced knowledge of results, etc. However, a broad knowledge of a company's Fundamentals (or financial ratios in my case) is never too far away but it certainly doesn't drive my decision making. So where does that leave BP? I absolutely agree with others on here that markets can be manipulated (so I say to those who invest based on Fundamentals alone, please mind the gap (down!) or at least the very least you must accept greater volatility - but perhaps (I hope) you could hedge e.g. in the option market) and I believe that to be the case with the Oil markets just now. The United States is the manipulating source as it uniquely has the financial might and it does this more in times of crisis in order to protect it's best interests. Other countries with aligned governing principles tend to be net beneficiaries too. I believe this to be truly a great thing at a macro level and helps preserve world order - best it can anyway - esp. considering the significant escalation of hostilities in the post pandemic world. In my opinion, the United States has (by way of influence) assisted many (but not all) countries - most closely aligned with its own democratic principles - to exist in relative peace and increase overall levels of prosperity compared with previous generations. However, not everyone or everything is a winner. At a less strategic level (but still forming part of the fundamental narrative) is a very controversial question: To what extent does the United States manipulate components of markets in order to achieve the higher level aim. To be specific, does one believe shorting activities can artificially lower fair value in order for a takeover to occur?

IMHO - BP 750p 04/2