Member Info for Claire2479

Sorry correct maths on obvious! lol

Auson: that was my assumption - rightly/wrongly putting it about $250-300m in total.

Neversellshell: ...my only thoughts are additional land requirements might be a problem if expanding existing sites for bolt- ons. Land is an issue in Netherlands.

So - if BP has relatively few cf. eg. Shell - supply chain costs make it costly. Better to concentrate elsewhere, e.g US where land is less expensive.

I get the impression that the Board is laser focused on returns across all divisions and markets within them.

Hi Mark, Spights,

...quite a theme - Shell wants to sell c.1000 retail locations inc petrol stns in coming year to concentrate on setting up charging stns for EVs esp. in China - will reduce Shell's retail space by c.2%. Netherlands is densely populated so land is scarce and expensive.

Also,

Total selling/sold in Germany & Netherlands.

Jet selling/sold in Germany & Austria.

No further details.

All beginning to plan for the EV travel model with convenience (inc. stores) bolted on.

Getafgrip: lol - ref looney-suite.

To be fair (ref 18th Oct), it did look like SP might break the death channel but it's had another little surprise to the downside. However, the monthly timeframe is tentatively suggesting that a rise out of o/s is on the horizon - please don't quote me!

Getafgrip: ...you are destined for c-suite (if you aren't already there!). Thank you for re-focusing. You are (as always) spot-on with your analysis.

Best wishes

...just to prove we are all human - within 5 Mins of my eulogising about the positive gradients in the oil markets, then traders pressed sell to a 7521 level (fib 50%). You just got to laugh about my (v poor) timing.

I know every comment is relative to the time of posting, but still...

Yours humbly

Carrington: Totally agree with you on the growth point - my present mindset is that Trump would accelerate this with much lower POO. Then factor in likely tariff regime and it could end up being counter productive.

As an aside, I do like the way BP is seeking to diversify - new strategy announcement can't come quick enough - re market sentiment changing.

...further - I've ignored fade yesterday 2H.

Tawse: the uptick in oil since yesterday morning seems to be suggesting a continuation of present politics across the pond. I recognise other factors will also be playing a part too, eg. ME, Hurricane news etc. - but this uptick is significant so close to D-Day. A lot of money being made in this market - the graph is very steep!

I suppose it all depends what and how much you weight individual news ietms.

A lot of long-term strategic value in the forecourt convenience markets as users will invariably stay longer to 'refuel' - not to be underestimated as BP organically grows its markets.

I was wondering (in my earlier post this morning) to what extent did the POO increase have to do with possible early postal votes favouring Harris. However, I deleted that thought process as it is my own conjecture and I didn't think it would be helpful.

I'm of the opinion that POO will sell off under a 'pump baby pump' orange man doctrine. Hence I'm hoping for a President Harris outcome. Blimey, not another change of strategy for the BP board...before the new one has even begun!!

Just checking in on the BB for a moment...

Nice little rise to begin the week (always appreciated - thank you OPEC+).

However, this week my excitement will be tempered unless I see a rise above 405p. The SP is sitting in the middle of the downward channel but is much o/s. Catalyst needs to come along to push northwards.

I hope that is semi insightful - or as much as 2 lines can possibly be!

re. US election - I'm personally hoping for a Harris undisputed win as I don't want further BP strategy change.

Best wishes

Jakers: 100% agree about oil being manipulated. However, I'm not sure whether that will still need to be the case come middle of next week (or as much).

Qualitative and Quantitative go hand-in-hand. The way I look at it is we can all help each other. We have a common goal.

Definitely, no more posts from me today (unless requested for technical analysis)

Best wishes

Meoryou: ...and that might account for the rise back up to a key support level this morning.

Simon Watkins (OilPrice.com) writes a fascinating article 'What are Russia & Iran Cooking Up In Their Recent Flurry of High-Level Meeting'

Given Putin is burning 40-80% of Russia's annual budget in Ukraine then he absolutely needs higher oil prices. Sad to say this conflict is very likely to escalate much further yet. Sorry so brief - it is a fascinating/alarming article and I just wanted to bring it to your attention.

In general, there is under-reporting of Iranian/Russian high level communication.

I'm only seeing 4% drop on my screens atm. However, I wonder whether much milder conditions has something to do with fall and likely winter inventory build being forecasted???

Any other thoughts? Seems alot.

Jamtart: never imagined I'd be recommending BP as a two-bagger - what the...! Some said I was silly when I recommended RR in autumn 2022.

auson: thank you - again!

...just a thought as I munch on a BLT.

If so, will the Board be aware of the possible consequences from yesterday's debacle? The consequences from the budget are possibly rising prices, higher unemployment and slow(er) economic growth - all 3 nailed on in my opinion for the medium term. That equates to the awful prospect of stagflation - a vicious cycle where less consumer spending gives the economy even more room to decline leading to devaluation of the pound.

Given a likely US economy uptick in the same timeframe, then the effect would be very beneficial for the dividend - would it not?

Perhaps I'm just so obsessed with net debt at the moment that I'm just wanting the Board to look at any reason to reduce buyback and dividend yields.

Lunch over...

Mrn...no sorry it doesn't, but Auson has kindly given me my answer which I'm happy therefore to stick by the quoted success rate.