Member Info for Claire2479

Posted to endorse the TA from Stockready1 (as opposed to only 'recommend' on this occasion) as I felt it worthy.

The short-term SP is still oscillating downwards within its channel. A potential breakout in mid-Oct failed with a return to the downside. Despite, today's rise (so far), it's still too early to predict the direction of SP movement. There is still a distinct possibility that a c.330p level could be attained before a so-called 'santa rally'. If you are tempted to buy at these levels c.370p-380p then best of luck.

A lot of talk recently about Trump's 'Drill, Baby, Drill' mantra - I believe this will not quite have the same impact this time around wrt producers' desires to keep POO at c.$70 and above. I'm expecting this to be supportive of SP as well as, of course, the new strategy announcement early in the new year. Until then...

Sit back and relax . Enjoy the 6%+ dividend.

Best wishes

2025 - sorry, lol

Corporate messaging that has a consensus at least (better still unanimity) - agreed.

The speed of delivering change is an issue that needs addressing - this doesn't necessarily have to imply accelerated (as is being sought now), but sometimes has to be slower with time and events in time e.g. Looney's green agenda. Effective strategy is knowing the difference and therefore maximising returns at any given time.

In BP's case, this would prevent the '180-degree phase difference' theory applying when executing on strategy. The Chairman (especially, but also responsible Board Director/ advisors/ consultants) should be held responsible.

Also, throw into the mix branding with the applied strategy - Q: is it still fit for purpose?

Conclusion: it's a mess - roll on February 2024 with hope (rather than expectation)

Have you been to Wetherspoons for a liquid lunch Halfpenny - if so, was Mark still in there?

Seriously, it will be intriguing to see if any potential suitors start their approach for landing (so to speak at this price - dare I say lower!). Debt might be an issue. I'd be interested to know actual reasons for ADNOC backing away.

Hic Hic

Meoryou, now we, as PI's, are beginning to ask the salient questions.

Happy, you made me laugh so much - thank you, quite the tonic after hearing Raider75's update!

Getafgrip, agreed - lol at nuance in 1st para.

Raider75, thank you for that update - blimey, I can't wait now...!

...a little harsh - part of the problem and then debate can be had as to how significant a part - perhaps is kinder.

I'm never fond of a single source of strategy from within. However, let's assume she also consults and then manages on that basis, it is clearly not working. Board should have let her go when the new strategy was first muted with Chairman's blessings too.

Chierchia has been in post since July 2020. It begs the question, is she the problem?

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you ...getafgrip - applause please.

Absolutely bang on!

Good morning meoryou,

I read an analyst was forecasting a net debt increase in Q4 to $30 billion - I've tried to find the source but I can't atm. Not helpful - I appreciate. So much to read all the time!

I am generally very optimistic but without sound communications from the Board .... I also thought getafgrip wrote yet another inspired article yesterday. Can we really wait till February - esp. after US result and inauguration before?

...sorry, that was very juvenile.

Is it only my thinking that BP strategy always seems to be working always in 180 degree phase difference - ever since Looney tune announced the green crap!

Not liking this market drift below a key support - despite accounting for ex-div.

Also, will green divestments be less now - watching sell off in green energy stocks.

Help me - I need inspiration.

Hi Maximillian & WD-40,

Thank you once again to Maximiiian for that information - now fully briefed.

To add further and in order to be more precise on my behalf (in case of any misinterpretation), Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is the largest public company in India by market cap and revenue. Founded in 1958, it has total assets of US$210 billion. Notably, it is India's largest private tax payer and therefore it is in the Indian Government's best interests for private partnerships to flourish to reduce Russian oil imports through strategic ties with companies like BP (imo).

Strategic ties with RIL are (and will increasingly be) a very big deal for BP, within India and the global south beyond.

This is my interpretation from the information I read and limited background search about RIL.

I hope that helps.

Hi Mark,

Great post btw - those quotes had me in stitches. Just a v. quick one from me if that's okay.

I just wondered whether you could add the relatively low levels of the SPR into the mix as a further floor for oil at c.$70. Or, in your opinion, do you think the SPR is becoming a non-issue given US is now a net exporter?

The 'where next question?'is fascinating after yesterday's result and as PI's, it's always nice to be at least in the same room as the II's when we are trying to work out the answer to the question - would never dare to suggest we could ever be sat around the same table. However, for me, the technicals do tend to give an early alert.

Thank you

Thanks Auson,

...the dilemma! I personally wouldn't be surprised if he imposed stringent tariffs on selected market imports (notably Chinese) and softened this policy with a reintroduction of a quantitative easing programme - the Don is that mad!

Hi Charlie, my top of head thoughts:

- US result = enormous curve ball - re debt

- POO = lower : drill-baby-drill

- new strategy has 18 months max to work out

- catalyst required - new strategy announcement most likely for it. Communications before to market might be required

- Long term technicals are bombed out with some divergence in shorter ones = positive for SP - but see above

- Predators will be looking closely at these levels but will also be worried about debt if not addressed

With all that said the revenue growth potential is significant.

Conclusion: net positive

Best wishes

Hi Auson,

I wonder to what extent the BP Board will need to revise strategy in light of the likely tariff regime next year? Do you think tariffs are a red herring? - probably not.

Could net debt be even a greater problem than they had first thought, now big Don will be in town? As a result 'flipping' could be more of a reality. I'm trying to get ahead on this one but it's so difficult due to being unpredictable, much like the man himself. Your insight would be gratefully received and that of others - if time permits.

Best wishes.

Pablo: Cash dividends aren't paid to your cfd account. Instead price is adjusted on your screen today (ex-div date) so is the reason why your drop is larger as it reflects the dividend payment. My screens are now positive - albeit 0.14%.

WD-40: Whilst that is a correct statement in the present, the BP Board's strategy is more focused on developing strategic partnerships for future trading relationships with the Indian government. I'm sure that includes the whole energy mix too aside from just oil. Given a choice between continually buying Russian oil or partnering in self developed energy programmes, then I'm sure I know which route Prime Minister Modi (and others that follow him) will take. The future growth potential appears huge.

This is my interpretation gleaned from the background information I've read so far, kindly sent by Maximilllian and meoryou.

Happy ex-divi day one and all.

Meoryou - thank you.

It's probably very naive of me to ask whether there are any numbers anywhere on those magnificent expansion plans for India? I'm suspecting 'commercially sensitive' ...but should they be?

...as well as China, I wonder to what extent India in the global south is being looked into for solar expansion in particular? - esp. considering land values, density of population, growth prospects etc.

I mention in terms of long-term climate change effects - generally speaking more sun/less wind - and highly variable wind speed patterns.

China has c.400,000 GW installed solar capacity at present vs. India c.65,000 GW.