Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No, cos Duferco have 60m shares to sell.
I wouldn't say the SP indicates the board is out of its depth (yet). What it does signify is that they're arrogant and couldn't give a toss about investors. That's why I feel zero loyalty to the board, either they deliver on their pledge to create a value-generating vertically integrated Vanadium business or they should get out of the way.
Even though I'm not exactly bullish, and it's true that management are overpaid, it's worth remembering that there is a strategy being played out and that has not changed. Production is being ramped up, VRFB usage is accelerating globally and this will place demand on vanadium supplies and, theoretically, make it a super-commodity.
There are plenty of gripes to be found in terms of BMN's lack of communication, Nkomorov's uninspiring leadership of BE, the dilution and continual dumping of shares that has cost holders for years and sees us in the sorry mess, but the opportunity remains intact. It's more a case of whether the right people are in place to see this through or whether they're too lazy, complacent and incompetent to take advantage.
If that's the question mark I have over BMN management, it's because their refusal to engage with shareholders leaves this opinion open to interpretation. 2023 is really the year of reckoning for BMN. If they can't follow through with their vertically integrated business model in a convincing way, Mojapelo and Nikomorov need to be removed from the board and replaced by individuals with the appetite and know-how to succeed.
This may sound harsh, but when you're a publicly listed company you have an obligation to achieve returns for shareholders. Their salary and the company's growth has only made possible through shareholder funding, so they have to be made accountable for that and the clock is ticking.
Duferco has 60m shares to bin-off that's probably what's going on.
I'm devastated.
Apologies Pdub, but it's you that's missing the point of the thread. Let's start again, Agricore said "Forecast price from 2 analysts put BMN at either 20p or 30p. One bag or double bag either way things are improving here."
This infers that he believes in the broker forecasts and that things are looking up because, according to those forecasts, the SP will double or triple. I'm saying, broker forecasts are worthless and BMNs history of horribly incorrect forecasts proves it. According to rumour, one of BMN's brokers (Peel Hunt) just got dumped for giving a ludicrous forecast whilst simultaneously shorting BMN (lol).
Ultimately, because I'm honest enough to accept that broker forecasts aren't worth the paper they're written on, I'm accused of being a deramper, and the scum all come out of their holes to beat me down for offering a rather uncontroversial opinion that is backed up by evidence.
That's the story of BMN on lse.co.uk - people wanting to control the narrative and shut down any opposing view that doesn't fit their agenda, not 'trolls' blah blah. If people don't like trolls, there's a filter button.
Pdub, there's no intelligent discussion on the Telegram group, it's full of idiots posting cartoon GIFs and ramping the share.
Hope you're well.
I'm not asking people to trust me, unlike your fraud mates Ophidian with his Elliot Wave Charts, Alfachump and all those other LTHs who have almost completely disappeared after ramping BMN to hell and back so they can trade the share.
Pdub "All I would say is that broker targets are issued after studying past and current performance of the business (not share price) and what they expect of the business (not share price) in future. That shapes their share price forecast."
I completely disagree, broker targets are issued because all AIM-listed companies have to have a broker and the broker is basically paid to publish a positive price target. It's a very murky business - I'd go as far as to call it a total scam. Brokers are wined and dined to give positive price targets, information is withheld from them, and even if they know a business is going through turbulence they're not going to significantly downgrade (beyond what the price currently is) a price target to reflect that. The broker note 'might' have some useful information, but the price target itself is complete nonsense and only a moron would use it as an SP guide.
If so-called 'experts' SP Angel knew anything about vanadium market fundamentals, why didn't they predict or at least warn of the vanadium price collapse in 2018? Even on the way down, they upheld their absurd price target while the SP was falling through the floor. IMO SP Angel are about as much use as a chocolate dildo and I'm surprised BMN haven't dumped them because their reports often look like they're written by a 12-year-old.
It is deceptive as he's claiming things are improving based on the broker target, which is patently false as the SP has not improved due to the broker target and BMN has never got near a broker target.
People are free to say whatever they like and I have the right to challenge it.
What's positive about feebly trying to convince people that a broker target will shift a share price? Show me the evidence for it? It's misleading and deceptive, like Boris.
"Forecast price from 2 analysts put BMN at either 20p or 30p. One bag or double bag either way things are improving here."
Only a fool would buy a stock based on a broker price target. They're totally worthless.
Why does the board seem intent on torturing its investors?
Question is, what else is AS not telling us? Are the AVA6K trials going well or is bad news simply being buried? He needs to come out and explain everything surrounding LFTs/Medusa/sales and the approval process and offer a lot more clarity.
Bored sick of this whole sorry LFT goose chase now. Nothing left to discuss, no one left to believe or disbelieve - the AVA6K results will speak for themselves so it all depends on your appetite for risk. AS has zero credibility at this point, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
Why would they buy when they get shares for nothing then use them to pay their tax bills?
Open to surprises, but unless some big news hits or there is a massive vanadium rerate I really don't see BMN doing anything much in 2022. We already have evidence that Duferco has started dumping their 60m shares once the SP rises above 10p.
2023 is the big year for me - the share hangover will be gone and we'll know whether the company's continued silence is based on judicious strategic manoeuvering or otherwise. If not, shareholders should petition for the removal of BMN's vastly overpaid directors.
Apologies if already posted, but quite a juicy dossier of information on the Innova scandal.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/innovas-iniquity-part-1-how-test-firm-flashed-the-uk-taxpayers-cash/
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/innovas-iniquity-part-2-protected-by-the-uk-regulator/
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-innova-scandal-part-3-the-us-says-throw-the-tests-in-the-trash/
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-innova-scandal-part-4-questions-the-government-has-ignored/
What stands out is Tim Peto's recent comment: “Some of the English manufacturers are very unhappy their kits have failed and some of them think that they’ve been unfairly tested. I don’t know on what grounds they think it’s unfair other than it came out negative."
Yet, he is captured on audio in November 2020 claiming: "Four or five got through the screening process and one, Innova, was done first and we’ve got more data on that because of time – I’m not saying that the others aren’t as good – and I’m going to present to you the Innova data because I think that is going to be distributed widely in the short term."
Read into that what you will and make your own assumptions.
SP Angel next. Utterly useless.
As Faramog points out, obviously if FM had not bought into Vametco nothing would have happened, but then neither would it have happened had his mother not given birth to him - so maybe she should be given the credit.
Sarcasm aside, the SP rise to 48p was not down to the strategic genius of FM. Around 2017, he foresaw a structural deficit in the market increasing the V price from a low base - he was right, but it had crashed from $50 to $30 by year-end. He didn't factor in the Chinese government introducing high strength rebar regs, the real reason for the huge $120 V spike and subsequent 48p SP rerate.