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Have to agree with you there. Can't see Brent below $100 for any sustained period until the Ukraine conflict gets resolved. However, that could drag on for months in the east of the country and I suspect the West won't be rushing to remove sanctions unless there is a full Russian withdrawal.

Based on the 2021 FCF breakeven rate of $35/boe and a current blended sales price of $81/boe (after taking hedges into account), HBR is making around $9.43m FCF per day and over $2.4bn per year. Obviously this is pre-dividends and debt repayments, but largely ties in with the forecast in the annual report.

Certainly helps me sleep better at night after watching some of my NASDAQ stocks get crushed yesterday...

Hi Miles - nice to reconnect and good to see you're still here. Appreciate the welcome.

Indeed I have been out of HBR for some time. My last buy was around 315p and I sold close to 400p, so a decent return for the portfolio there. The reason I sold was that I was sure oil prices were on the way down, as OPEC+ were looking to bring back production in late 2021. Also the Tolmount delay had me wondering what else was wrong with the Premier portfolio.

How wrong I was though and look where we are today. Brent above $100 and no real signs of a significant drop in price - even with the US releasing 1m barrels per day for the next six months or so.

The gas price for me is also a key reason why I bought back in today. Seems that the market is very tight and HBR will absolutely be able to benefit from this. So the stars are aligning somewhat for HBR, after what was a pretty slow and painful start (for shareholders at least) to their life on the LSE.

Interesting you note the CNOOC in relation to HBR's valuation. I need to look into it but it seems to reinforce my view that there is significant upside to the SP over the next 18 months. I also agree that more M&A activity should be on the horizon once debt levels come down further. It's clearly a focus for management and they have a history of acquiring good assets at decent prices - so let's see how things play out.

Just had a read of the report this morning and I'm back in today for 3,800 shares. Based on current Brent futures, HBR could hedge their entire production at $100+/bbl to the end of the year. Per the report, this would generate between $1.5bn - $1.7bn in FCF for the year. Crazy to think they could be debt free in 2023 if all goes well.

Can easily see 600-700p this year at these crude prices.

I tend to agree that the SEC should've picked this up way back in 2019. There's obviously some accountability on both sides here, but it appears that Barclay's has to carry the can for it. As an article pointed out last week, it's not like the bank has misled investors or knowingly gamed the system. They simply went over their shelf limit by mistake and sold more products than they should have - a stupid but genuine clerical error.

This doesn't mean that the investors who bought the products have lost money. In fact, they will likely make money out of this as Barclay's has to buy the notes back at par.

On that basis, I continue to think the SP fall is way overdone. But it does provide a great entry point for those not already invested.

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/barclays-harshly-punished-for-trading-error-as-investment-banking-heads-south-20220401

Another interesting article and I tend to agree with the viewpoint here (i.e. this whole situation is quite overblown)

On a (somewhat) more positive note, the lower the share price is the greater the effect of the buyback...

No problem - always good to share the latest information.

Interesting to see the large sell off this afternoon on above average volume. Not worried longer term but they need to come out with some PR soon to stop the bleeding.

https://www.ft.com/content/f6422619-fd92-4a32-9ffd-6bd3cfbb083c

Just out from the FT and provides some further background to the structured note issue.

Topped up again this morning. Average now 149.37p with 20k shares. Holding long for the eventual recovery and happy with a 4-5% dividend yield at my average. GLA.

Just did exactly that with £20k at 148p. In my view, the downside risk from here is max 10% but the upside is 50% over the next 6-9 months.

Feel like it's quite oversold at current levels, even with this bond fiasco.

Agreed but the shares in issue will increase, so just covering myself in case there's a dip.

Bought back in here heavily today after selling in the 15's on the Kobold news.

This is the RNS I've been waiting for, as I knew it would take some time to arrange the financing for Dundas and for Disko exploration with KoBold to begin. While the Dundas financing is yet to be approved, the Placing funds should get Bluejay over the line with this once the Feasability Study is complete.

There is a massive push in Europe to secure EU based resources (particularly Titanium and Battery Metals) so I expect there to be a lot of interest in Bluejay and its assets over the next 12-18 months.

I've held back some funds for when the placing shares hit the market next week, but I'm starting to get pretty excited about the prospects here. Feels like the stars are starting to align for Bluejay.

Good price and I did the same last week at 96.2p. This is an easy long term hold given how much the company has going for it. Think SMR's, Light Electric Planes, e-VTOL engines, etc. Plus ongoing defence, power systems, and civil aviation work.

In two years time things will really start to get exciting. RR is on a multi-year journey to becoming a green technology giant.

It will come once new defence spending starts to flow through to tenders in the market. Rolls actually has a lot going for it in this type of environment. Their engineering expertise is second to none and they will be considered a strategic company by the UK government. On that basis, I'm seeing a reasonable amount of upside for Rolls over the next few years.

In terms of civil aero - I was on a flight from Johannesburg to Frankfurt last week and it was a fully booked 747-8. People are definitely still flying (so the demand is still there) but the key for airlines will be managing their hedging book re: jet fuel prices.

Bought in this afternoon at 96.3p after watching last weeks earnings conference and reading the press release. Seems like there's a bunch of positive developments in the business and I definitely think there's opportunities in the defence sector over the medium term. Germany is basically rearming and looking to up their spending to 3% of GDP, and I'm expecting other EU countries to follow suit.

So there could be some nice contracts floating around in the coming year for RR.

In addition to the new business (SMR, RR Electric), Covid is basically over so people will be starting to travel more this year which will help with engine uptime. Obviously Ukraine is a factor but I can't see people cancelling their holidays because of it. In any case, it seems that civil aviation is becoming less of a focus as the company pivots towards power generation and new sustainable technologies.

Once the ITP Aero sale completes then net debt will come down by around £1.7bn, reducing interest costs and increasing profitability further.

Overall, I think this is a solid buy at these prices for a medium to long term hold.

Surprised to see how much this has drifted down over the past few months. I sold out breakeven at 105p to shift some money to the US market, but still kicking myself that I didn't take money off the table in the 150's. This is good entry point which is tempting me back in, although I'd like to see a decent RNS and some volume before taking the plunge.

I still think this is a solid business (especially in terms of the advanced materials like the Al-Gr Composite) but it just needs a catalyst to stop the drift and re-energise the shareholder base. A contract for the composite would be a game-changer and confirm there's a commercial market for the material.

On the flip side - I do worry about solid state battery tech in terms of TGR's longer term EV prospects. These don't use a graphite anode, so any breakthrough developments there would be a blow to TGR's sales pipeline. That being said, there are many markets for graphite and they are also diversifying into graphene, which has numerous potential uses.

Thought I'd check in here after a few months to see if things had progressed. Still more fluff from management, no material progress, and a few resignations. Bodes well for the upcoming AGM...

Also seems to be a lot of bickering on the board - as clearly a lot of PI's are getting frustrated with where the company and share price is.

Surely it's time to hire an experienced Sales Director rather than replace MK?

QFI are at risk of missing the green transition if they don't get their act together soon. In my view, they only have a short window to commercialise BioMSAR (and make some money over a few years) before newer technologies are developed to get ships closer to zero emissions.

I've been out for a while, but good luck to those invested and hope you get a decent RNS soon.

Looks like the new shares were admitted today but are not yet fully paid up, which explains the drop in the SP.

The record date for the Rights Issue was last Wednesday at 6pm, so those buying now will not be able to participate. The RNS from Friday is in the link below.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/easyjet-plc--ezj-/rns/fully-underwritten-rights-issue/202109090725012475L/

The SP has been dropping because it was pumped by the Telegraph after they learnt about the Al/Gr Composite. As with many other micro caps - investors piled in and the share price shot up, but then over time people got bored with the slow progress, sold, and moved on.

I do wish I had taken some profits at 150p, but I got caught up in the hype and rode the drift all the way back down to my average (i.e. where we are now).

The constant Twitter barrage does drive me a bit nuts to be honest, as the recycling of the same announcements means that the genuine RNS' get a bit lost in the noise. It also makes investors think that the company are continually ramping the stock.

I'm still extremely bullish on the company, but their PR team could do with a dose of moderation from time to time. If they do feel compelled to post - maybe try for some original content, such as photos from the mining sites showing development progress, etc.

I'm 316p after trading in and out a few times since the merger. I definitely got lucky a few weeks ago with my timing and managed to buy the dip, but I think I'll hold for now as my average means any future dividend will look quite nice on a percentage basis.

I do still believe that this share will trend much higher over the next few years - primarily via a reduction in debt and then re-leveraging for future acquisitions.

I think this is more of a private equity oil play than a traditional producer. The management team clearly have that strategy in mind, so it will be interesting to see how things evolve over time. If they can manage to bolt on another 100k barrels per day then you'll definitely be looking at a SP over 600p.

Whether this is the right strategy longer term remains to be seen, but O&G will still be in demand for some time to come.