RE: M&A9 May 2024 16:39
It's a fair point re: the earnings and I think these will start to flow through later in the year. They're tracking towards a record year revenue wise with reduced minimum guarantee obligations (which should improve gross margins) and an improving advertising market which should see higher ad spend/pricing.
I do think Adj. EBITDA is the right metric to measure the business as it strips out the share based payments (which are non-cash) and other one-off costs to get a more accurate relfection of performance YOY. The company has no debt so there's no interest costs and depreciation is minimal given they don't own any fixed assets, therefore operating earnings is basically NPBT.
In terms of the business model, the CEO stated that they're much more diversified in terms of key podcasts so there's less risk that shows leaving will have a significant impact on performance (i.e. Morbid). I would realistically put the business in the digital advertising space which, after a quick google, appear to have average price-to-sales ratios between 1.5-2.0x in the US.
As a takeover target, I do think other players would be interested in the company given the high eCPM, ~8000 brands on the platform, and their position as the fourth largest podcast network in the US (by weekly average users). Once the profits start to come back then I wouldn't be surprised if a larger network comes calling. But even if they don't and the company is profitable, the SP will be well north of where it is today.
Fair to say I'm bullish on the outlook for BOOM. IMO it's a well-run company (which is somewhat of a rarity on AIM) with good cashflow management and a strong position in the growing podcast market. Once we start to see improving profits and a few months of positive cash generation, then the SP should move up sustainably from there.
GLA and DYOR.