Topped up a little here too. Unfortunately it had to be outside my ISA allowance this time but it will come good in 6 months or so I believe
Thanks ProfsQ and Bellers
Rail may not work but presumably a road train could be? I don't know if they've made any of these rigs greener, as I believe some road trains are capable of hauling 200+ tons. I mention the green side of it as road haul transportation is not ideal unless EV's are under consideration. I don't know how this need to haul by road (even if only a moderate distance) squares with the green accreditation that SD mentioned is necessary to become attractive to some new investors?
Agree this was a good Q&A. I have felt for some time that the SP won't shift until the DTM is finalised but the angle on the ASX listing was interesting in the sense that it would inevitably bring buyers rather than sellers to the market. I did sense some frustration at the due diligence and the time it is taking for Newmont to go through the books. This process is undoubtedly delaying the DFS and is frustrating in the short term but ultimately SD and the team seem ready to respond to whatever happens. I'm guessing we have 5 months or so before the markets get really excited. Sustainability accreditation will also bring new institutional investors on board
Thanks Redirons and Doublehun. An interesting history Redirons. I'm not far off (early) retirement myself but I've got a couple of years to fine tune things and it gives enough time to assess this stock in particular. I've a decent (though not extravagant) final salary pension so GGP shares, which represent about 10% of a long term ISA sit well in my overall strategy for now which has a mix of risk that I'm comfortable with without jeopardising the relatively modest retirement I'm anticipating
This post doesn't include an detailed analysis, just simply to point out that the Morning Star "fair value" rating of the SP is currently 13p. I was staggered when a few weeks back people posted up what their average buy price was and the overwhelming majority were quids in. Certainly this will be true for long term holders who are still in big profit regardless of the tumble from the all time high. I suspect the silent majority however were/are in a less rosy place. Me? I'm honest enough to say that I bought too high at first. I was late to the party when GGP were being hyped a bit too much. As a rule I tend not to hold on to stocks if I believe they are going to stagnate - I tend to sell (even at a loss) to make my money work harder elsewhere. Most revently for example i bailed on one faltering stock to buy in to Cleantech Lithium and my money doubled in about 3 weeks. I certainly don't win them all but tactically I'm happy over time as my gains far outstrip my losses over multiple sectors even with the odd mistimed purchase. With GGP however I held. Near the start my break even point was near enough 20p. Interestingly even just maybe 6 months ago it was at Morning Stars current fair value of 13p. I continued to average down and now I need about 9.5p for break even. Many quieter holders on here will be in my boat. I trust the fundamentals regardless as to what happens with the multiplicity of scenarios mentioned in this thread. I don't know how big the upside will be, for me it's simply too unpredictable to make a clear call but I will make a reasoned choice whether I hold or sell once I am in reasonable profit - and i consider tgat to be a "when" not an "if". I am confident of at least doubling my my investment although I retain hope that it could be many times that if everything aligns with the more optimistic forecasts as to what may happen. Doubling isn't what I hope for but after a bruising ride it will suffice. In spite of a stagnant SP for an extended period and me buying too high in the first place I've never moaned about it. Prudence and a level head kept me here and told me it was best to average down. I have no regrets whatsoever. Keep faith!
Thanks for the summary Raisingdonuts. I'll give it a watch when able
I couldn't make the webinar. What was the general sense of things? Is there a sense that CTL SP forecasts are overstated or what? Given that lithium prices are not the sole factor in a companies projected growth what is the consensus?
Yeah I'll be at pensionable age myself in a few years time. I'll have to assess nearer then how I play this one regarding income
I know there are many bridges yet to cross, although hopefully the first bridge as GGP moves from explorer to miner happens soon. But what are people's thoughts about GGP progressing to pay dividends in the future? If so what sort of timeframe do you think?
Is it likely that for the foreseeable future profits will crank the wheel of exploration and development rather than be returned to shareholders? Of course I appreciate that the greatest reward initially will be in long awaited SP rise. It got me thinking after Newcrest recently paid out a special dividend, the timing of which appeared designed to suggest that profitability needs to be taken more seriously in the next offer that Newmont make (assuming that they do). Hopefully this all bodes well for the impending FS and DTM. Historically how long does it take for a company on a path like Greatland to consider dividend payments?
My wife is (I invested on her behalf). I may be in her bad books for now as this stock flew and she is down a little currently
Excuse my lack of knowledge on how these things tend to play out, but IF GGP were in a position to buy out Telfer/Hav because it wasn't wanted as part of the Newmont takeover, how would it be financed? Is there any danger that the raise of funds would involve the sort of severe dilution that would compromise smaller shareholders? Or would we be sitting 9n such a sizeable asset that the levels of dilution would become insignificant compared to the assets and projected rise in SP?
It's been found
This is broadly my thinking too. My planned (slightly early) retirement date will be end of April 2025. I should be in a position where I don't NEED to sell at that point but by then I hope we will know how far this may sail and I will be reviewing my strategy at that point. If things are looking good (especially if new exploration looks promising) I may use this stock as something akin to a pension drawdown, taking a bit of profit here and there but keeping invested if things are looking good (and I see no reason why not). I don't see myself selling before 2025 unless something really unexpected happens
I've only just around to reading this thread and it contains some of the best posts (from different people) that I've read in ages. To my mind it is entirely appropriate for SD to shift his dealings with NCM from a semi-adversarial relationship to one that is more openly cooperative. This will be based on things we know about (changes in management at NCM, a realisation that it makes more sense to delay the MRE based on continually emerging positive drill results, etc), as well as things we don't. It is a frustrating journey at the moment but I would be more alarmed if SD was inflexible. Ultimately that would put us more at risk of a hostile takeover. You have to be prepared to be robust and assertive when required (as he proved), but somewhat more diplomatic when appropriate. The thing with diplomacy is that it often makes 'outsiders' nervous because there's a sense that "nothing is happening", when very often more is happening behind the scenes that is rightly cloaked in a bit of secrecy. To people that don't look at the nuance, and especially to those sitting on a loss, it's easy to panic. My advice would be to keep going back to the fundamentals. Although some made a fortune and got out on big big profits this current phase is not a "get rich quick scenario" and it's not for the faint hearted. It is a time to hold and watch with vigilance and scrutiny without being derailed by events that have no bearing on the mid to longer term potential of this stock. I am ready for 6 months of relative instability with a somewhat suppressed SP. If it pushes on a bit in 2 or 3 months to me that is a bonus rather than a given. Unless new information emerges that seriously undermines this position it is a hold or buy all the way.
I agree with SharketMare. I bought more two days ago and am about to sell another stock that has given me good returns and is close to my target. This will release a bit to further invest in GGP at this low price point
I very recently bought in at 7.5 with a view to long term gains (not necessarily what you hope for in Q1) but I'm reasonably confident in the mid-term. Problem is there are so many conflicting factors from the lithium price ultimately easing (perhaps very significantly in a two year time frame) to greater resource availability etc. A lot of my thinking on this stock is the 'home grown' factor for the US automotive EV industry. But there will still be a ceiling price on lithium that will likely drop as global supply increases. There can be a lot of jitters over low priced stocks that are engaged in a market that is receiving a lot of attention at the moment and this volatility will likely make for a bit of a roller-coaster. That said I personally think this one is worth riding and I would hope the floor will be 10 in the next 6 months or so
If only Speedy. I'm firmly in EMU land. High speed acceleration but no thrum for me
Noted Speedy
Thanks very much Yellowstuff. I appreciate the understanding!