RE: FID27 Feb 2026 14:55
Whilst frustrating, I do think this SP reaction is excessive. What's happened here is that we've all believed ATOME's optimistic timelines of Dec & Jan that were never realistic. If you ask ChatGPT to do an analysis of similar FOAK projects, it suggest the 'base' case to announce FID after the equity club is composed (mid December 2025 in our case), is 2-3 months (mid-Feb to mid-March).
As I said earlier, this presents a rare and unexpected buying opportunity. The fair value of ATOME's share in Villeta is 84p (65% gain from where we are today) and once this is proven, you'd expect the market to start valuing the pipeline projects into the SP as well, potentially leading this to be over £1.
Patience and holding our nerve is key to this one. I'm hopeful it will be worth it.
ChatGPT summary:
For a first-of-a-kind, multi-lender, multi-equity-party deal like Villeta, a realistic range is:
Optimistic: ~6-8 weeks (only if docs are genuinely “near-final”, CPs are light, and there are no late structuring wrinkles - also hard over Christmas/New Year).
Base case: ~8-12 weeks (2-3 months) - this is the most common “it’s close, but complex” timeframe.
Conservative: ~12-20+ weeks (3-5 months) if any of these bite: intercreditor negotiation drags, security package or SPV mechanics get revised, one lender/equity member needs extra committee cycles, or CPs (legal opinions, permits, technical sign-offs, insurances, model audit, etc.) take longer than expected.