Member Info for chromo

@kld1 I’ll accept your apology in the form of a pint of a Guinness! :)

I specifically said they were rounded for simplification and Hy24 was UP TO $115m and a minimum of $110m ...

@kennedy2324 - my intention is not to release hares and spook, I simply want others to be informed. There are suggestions on here that an equity raise isn't even possible - and others like kld1 who outright dismiss it because they don't agree with it. I don't agree with it either, but I'm not going to pretend that it isn't an option on the table - it absolutely is and it would be wrong not to challenge those statements.

I'm not sure I follow your point about the ATOME Paraguay SAE Board agenda and why that rules anything out. Here's the possible situation (using slightly rounded-up numbers for simplification)

Total equity required: $250m

ATOME free carry (20%): $50m

Hy24: $100m

Investor A: $25m

Investor B:$30m

Investor C: $15m

That leaves a $30m funding gap which ATOME might decided they want to fund (to take their total shareholding in the SPV to more than the 20% free carry). That funding could come from (1) existing shareholders (2) new shareholders e.g. Vision Invest, or (3) retail shareholders.

Options 1 & 2 will happen behind closed doors and we will know nothing about it. Option 3 would be communicated publicly.

So there is a very credible situation whereby we get an announcement tomorrow confirming that equity agreements are signed, FID is declared, and ATOME have completed an equity raise with existing / new shareholders and a placing of $30m is coming.

As I have clearly stated, I think this is unlikely and even if it were to happen, it is my expectation that the SP would still rise from current levels because of the value accretion. But to simply dismiss it and either explain it's impossible or won't happen is reckless.

Full disclaimer: I have not sold a bean and I have every reason to try to ramp the hell out of this and increase my own shareholding value. But I won't do that because it's not right.

You’re overlooking a valid point though, aimtitan.

ATOME plc can absolutely raise equity which it then injects into the equity component to increase its shareholder in the ATOME Paraguay SAE SPV. At the moment we know it will have a minimum 20% but ATOME plc were very clear in their RNS to state that they do have the right to co-invest in the equity club pari passi with other investors. So it cannot be ruled out and dismissed like you are suggesting.

I personally think it is more unlikely than not, and it would be silly for ATOME to raise equity for that purpose. They would be far better off raising equity to fund the progression of projects 2/3/4 etc. However, it cannot be discounted and that’s why I think we are seeing the SP being held back at these levels because people are waiting to see whether there is dilution or not.

If they do raise and dilute, I still expect the SP to rise but probably to 100-120. If they do not raise and dilute, there’s every chance this goes 140-170.

We will find out tomorrow but I just don’t want anyone to have egg on their face by saying categorically it can’t or won’t happen …

Peter / Management have made themselves look like a total bunch of idiots with these constant delays. They’ve clearly never heard of the concept ‘under promise and over deliver’.

Oh well, another 24 hours of waiting until this absolutely soars. Sigh…

From the Paraguayan commercial registry: https://diariocorreocomercial.com.py/atome-paraguay-s-a-e-10/

Ordinary Board Meeting taking place for ATOME Paraguay S.A.E tomorrow (21 April). On the resolutions list (#4) is "appointment of shareholders" - that can't happen unless the equity agreements are signed.

This must mean:

Equity Agreements signed today (or first thing tomorrow)

Board Meeting tomorrow (about 3-4pm UK time)

RNS from ATOME plc confirming equity agreements signed (and presumably FID declared) on Wednesday AM

Enjoy :)

Why are you all even engaging with what is very clearly a bot? I hate these investor forums sometimes.

Without a doubt ragtag. Plenty on here in the background will have bought a few tens of thousands worth, made a couple of grand, sold it and gone to the next ramp.

Those of us still holding here this week - and well into the future - will be the ones who make the real money!

This price action is a thing of beauty. Some of us here have waited so long to see this finally start to be noticed and valued (many even longer than myself).

Now to see this into the 100s later this week / next week to finally get the value and recognition it deserves. If Villeta is one of Paraguay's most significant investments ever... just wait until Yguazu starts steaming ahead!

In terms of new info, here are some things that I can think of:

1) Potential NPV improvements thanks to increased concessional finance, Paraguay credit rating improvements etc. etc. This could increase the value of ATOME's 20-25% free carry beyond the $60m we had already been told about

2) Could get a big boost if there are some large household names forming the equity club. Adds credibility to the project and finance package, which adds value to the subsequent projects

3) Details of the remuneration to ATOME for managing the project, providing the leadership team etc. Again, could be slightly higher in terms of value than what you ordinarily see given its FOAK and complex

4) We will probably hear a bit more about the offtake terms - we know Yara will take 100% and there are price floor mechanisms available, but we don't yet know how much ATOME will benefit from price upside (quite pertinent now given the middle east conflict)

I'll have a think and come back to you if I come up with any more

Minimum 100p - I suspect more like 120-140p due to the frenzy.

Some background for any newcomers here:

This has been SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued by the market for a year. The SP was in the mid-60s / high 70s back in September 2025 when the offtake agreement with Yara was announced. Since then, we've had $400m+ debt agreements signed, 'Excellent' ratings provided by Fitch, and now basically confirmation that the equity agreements are signed and waiting for the TV and media cameras.

My estimates aren't just 'fingers in the air' nor an attempt to ramp. Multiple brokers have this at between 120-175p and that was before we saw improvements in the structure (e.g. 25% of the debt being on concessional terms), deteriorations in the global fertiliser market, upgrades to Paraguay's investment ratings etc. etc. etc. (I could keep going on and on but you get the point...)

And finally, the free float position here is what could drive this crazy. There are very few shares available for trading and a relatively modest group of us hold a significant amount of the shares (3-3.5m). Most PIs have rules whereby they can't invest in companies that (1) haven't formally declared FID and (2) are sub-£50m market cap. ATOME should have both of these in the next few weeks, so expect the PIs to be desperate for shares and MMs forced to raise the bid to get us retail folk to sell up

Also - look at what happened this morning based on retail investors alone. 20% up in minutes.

Wait until the large private institutions are able to load up as soon as FID is formally declared (and they won’t be able to because about 50 of us hold most the free float).

This could chart well north of 100p if the conditions are right.

No better investment opportunity right now. This should fly north of 100p in a week - the RNS basically says ‘it’s final but we are waiting for wet signatures next week so we can get some lovely photos for the media circus that’s about to follow’

Rachel from accounting is licking her lips 2phevs ... so frustrating that these secondary trading platforms can't qualify for EIS. No wonder the UK markets are going to pot ...!!!

I'll happily gobble up their shares ...

No I dont’t think so. If ATOME get this 20% quoted free carry, that should be about $45-50m funded by each of the equity club participants. So you’re right to challenge; it will be less than $100m ‘outstanding’

Morning 2phevs

I think the $130m figure you are seeing is in the environmental section which was written in the early days of the project. It moved around quite a bit as they agreed the final composition of the debt package and I believe the IFC settled on a total of $100m ($50m via the GCF as concessional debt, $25m subordinated debt, and $25m equity). They updated the summary of investment page to reflect that final position, but never went and updated the environmental page.

What we do know, though, is that the IFC are providing a decent $25m chunk of the remaining equity. With $115m being provided by Hy24 there’s around - or just less than - $100m left to fill with other equity providers. Not an enormous amount of money considering the potential of this project.

Best of luck to you and everyone else here for this week.

Today will be busy trying to bed & ISA!!

Chromo

I wouldn’t mind betting that, like the debt agreements, ATOME will want to hold some sort of signing ‘ceremony’ and get lots of photos that can be used for the various press releases - by both ATOME and the equity providers. Whichever day this happens, I suspect the agreements will have been ‘final’ for a number of days, it’s just a case of getting everyone together at the same time. Probably slightly trickier with (1) Easter holidays and (2) travel disruption (depending where the equity providers are based).

Either way, I’m quite happy with any day this week except Friday. I really don’t like Friday RNS as the news always dies over the weekend.

Fingers crossed for a good week ahead. Good luck all - hopefully our patience and nerves are about to pay off big time.

Pj70 - the broker note simply restated what the company had announced. These are always targets, never promises. Trust me, I've seen it enough times that timelines slip and slip and slip ... companies like this are all about patience and belief. Funding never comes easily and is always a protracted process. That said, when the business case is strong (as strong as it is here), these things often tend to pay off.

I'll be happily holding this one and not getting too worried about timeline slippage. I'm happy to wait for the enormous payday that I think this has the potential to do.

Not a problem 2phevs - no offence taken!