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Do you mind me asking how many shares you hold Lord? This is by far my biggest holding in the portfolio now

I wasn’t able to make it Lord, but there are tiny volumes being traded this morning which suggests to me a fairly muted reaction. If it really were bad then I’d expect there to be significant sells. Daily trading volume is about 70,000 shares

Anyone going to this evening’s presentation at Tower Bridge?

I agree with Metalhead’s optimism. FID still on track for June or early July with full financial close due before end Sept. FID will be the catalyst for this one.

Interested to see how the SP moves on the back of the ATOME Energy idea

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/atome-energy--atom/creation-of-atome-power/8886237

Just seen that Olivier has responded to a World Fertiliser post on LinkedIn this afternoon relating to PepsiCo. He has said “ the team at ATOME are looking forward to playing a long term role with supply to Yara International from our Villeta project in Paraguay”. A really positive indication that everything is still going well and we might be treated to some very good news soon!!

Absolutely. It’s about time this thing blew its lid. At an absolute minimum the share price should be about £1.20 per share based on the FV of the 20% free carry. And that’s before you even start to consider the value of future pipeline.

@Lord

Your understanding of free carry is the same as mine so I think we are agreed there. I just don’t understand how the debt would increase ATOME’s 20% share in the project?

I also don’t understand the point about ATOME having to repay the debt. My understanding of the debt is that it is at a project level and is secured against the project assets. It will be repaid via revenue from the project once operational.

2 others have ‘liked’ your post so perhaps that means they agree with you and I am incorrect.

Would be good if any others on here who see this message could give their thoughts? I’m keen to know the right answer!!

Not quite sure that’s right Lord… Debt is being raised at the project level, secured against that company’s assets and off-take agreements (e.g. with Yara). There isn’t any indication as far as im aware that ATOME is using that debt to fund their own equity share beyond the 20% free carry. The only way they would realistically do this is by putting funds in themselves directly, which would come from a capital raise. It’s entirely possible, but would be outright stupid in my opinion. The only way I could see them doing it is if they couldn’t find enough providers of equity, which feels unlikely given this is the first and largest project of its kind (but who knows… No one would’ve predicted FID not being done by May 2025 if you’d asked in May last year!!)

Hi Lord - As I understand it - though happy to be corrected by someone else on here - ATOME is entitled to a 20% share of the future profits generated by fertiliser sales from the Villeta Project, without needing to contribute any equity themselves. The remaining 80% of profits will be allocated to the equity investors, such as Hy24, in proportion to their investment %.

The debt providers (e.g. IDB) will be repaid separately via interest and principal payments, funded from the project’s revenue before any profits are distributed to the equity holders.

On your point regarding ATOME’s potential participation, that would be on the equity side—not as a debt provider. While it’s theoretically possible for ATOME to invest alongside Hy24 in the remaining equity tranche, the company currently has limited cash reserves and would likely need to raise additional capital via a share issuance. At the current share price, that would be highly dilutive and economically inefficient. In my view, it would be more strategic for ATOME to conserve its capital for investment in future pipeline projects where it may be able to secure stronger economics or controlling positions

What is everyone’s price target for the announcement of FID? I’ve read in some of the analyst reports that ATOME’s share of the free carry (20%) is worth about $60m which is about £45m. ATOME’s market cap is currently £18.8m so I think that would imply a minimum fair value share price of 94.5p.

That, of course, doesn’t consider the future revenue stream for ATOME, nor does it factor in the potential value from other (larger) projects in their future portfolio.

So, do people think this is likely to come in at, under, or over 95p when FID is hopefully announced by the end of June?

Dont forget the deal with HY24 gives them £5m prior to FID. £1m already banked I believe. So they should have sufficient working capital for the next while.

What do you mean by top up territory? SP so low we need to fill our boots? :D

LordWM

What do you think a realistic timeframe is for announcing the next milestone on Villeta? I think it has to be the Yara offtake agreement being finalised and if FID is planned before the end of Q1, it realistically needs to be in the next 2-3 weeks for them to finalise the equity club and get everything signed and sealed.

What do we think the next RNS is likely to be? Signed offtake agreement with Yara?

I’m really hoping they don’t plan on participating in the equity club themselves by doing a large capital raise and diluting our shareholdings

Long time coming!

Could this be the week we breach 50p?! I wonder how long it will be until they announce the signing of the definitive offtake agreement with Yara but that will be a huge catalyst I suspect given the economic uncertainty. Once that gets announced all eyes are on closing that equity club and picking which of their 4x oversubscribed debt options they want!!

It’s been a long while since they posted that update stating they expected 10x order growth in 2025. Surely there’s got to be an RNS soon that announces a big new B2B contract or a renewal of an existing B2B contract but for much higher volumes? Loading up my shares to lower the average whilst the share price is this weak. A big announcement could see this breach 90p again in my opinion. NFA and GLA.

Excited to see if this blows tomorrow. Imaginably there was some subdued reaction to the EPC news due to the wider economic situation. With that now reduced (for the moment) I wonder if this will breach 50p tomorrow 😃

I honestly think that the nervousness is around two things: (1) whether ATOME will still be able to get the remainder of the equity club built in today’s financial environment - challenging with money being hoarded in cash and bonds - and (2) whether ATOME themselves will try to participate in that equity club by raising cash through new share issuance.

Personally, I think (1) is still do-able but I worry the H1 timeline for FID will slip (again). And (2) I just cannot see them doing with the SP at its current level. They’d have to dilute everything enormously to raise a measly amount of cash.

Time will tell …!