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From LinkedIn:

Later this week ATOME CEO Olivier Mussat will be speaking at the Green Climate Fund Private Investment for Climate Conference (GPIC) 2025 in Abu Dhabi 🟢

Olivier will be presenting our flagship Villeta Project during the session "From inputs to impact: decarbonising fertiliser at scale" 🌱

Register via hashtag#Whova Event Platform https://lnkd.in/eG47tnkY

hashtag#ATOME hashtag#Fertiliser hashtag#Decarbonisation hashtag#GPIC2025

That is big news for ATOME!! If they can finalise and announce the equity club soon, this thing is ripe for a re-rate!!

Great minds think alike Billy!

From what I know, the debt providers often need confirmation on the equity side before they can commit to anything. That is probably why the IDB Invest Board didn’t consider ATOME in August / September (I forget the date) and is my fear as to why we’ve not heard an outcome on the IFC Board either. I suspect that one is also going to be postponed because ATOME hasn’t announced final terms on the equity side.

Re one single announcement, you could be right but I think they’ll announce each individual one being ‘approved’ because that gives confidence to the market. And then there will be one final announcement confirming full financial close once ATOME selects how exactly it wants to comprise the full debt package.

I could well be wrong and these are just my thoughts. Either way I just want to see some tangible progress on the financing side now. It all looks great on paper but ‘delivery’ is too slow for my liking - especially when FID was promised in 2024.

Some decent buys being reported from this morning’s opening session, which is encouraging. I really hope we get an update from ATOME management early next week at the latest re progress on the equity front. This was promised to us as being delivered in September and yet again another missed deadline.

Death, taxes, and ATOME missing their own set deadlines …

Good spot Billy. That’s a week earlier than the 18th November they originally postponed it to. But it’s $40mil lower than what they had the last time they updated it. I wonder if that’s as a result of the IFC board decision yesterday, which was to provide $60m of loans on top of the GCF loan (already announced). $245m total debt package minus the $60m is $185m …. I wonder if that’s leaves the Dutch FMO taking a $15m slice.

Wait until after hours. You’re going to see this thing pop like a zit on a teenager who drinks Monster Energy and eats crisps for breakfast.

This thing should be 1058% up.

Is it really that late Kennedy? I thought saw 10-1am in Washington DC. If you’re right then I suspect it might be too late for a 0700 RNS tomorrow. Hope we do though!

I agree with you avocet. I used to have a small ish holding here (£10k or so) but I sold for a very small profit after the full year results as I knew the SP would trickle back down again.

This feels like a company with great potential and is clearly in the game with some big brands, but it still feels several years away from major growth and I agree with you about the fundraising needs. This will continue to be on my watch list but I don’t think I’m going to buy into it for a while at least.

The IFC website still says the Board meeting is taking place today. I wonder if it is still going ahead despite ATOME not having announced the equity club (and advising this would be in September). I hope we are not going to have even more delays.

Anyone else find it odd that there’s not been a single press release from Yara re the definitive offtake agreement? I wonder if it’s because Yara are planning a stake on the equity side also and are saving the announcement for the Big Bang

Who is the bedwetter selling 10,000 shares for 60p on the same day the most conservative of the brokers has just upgraded the target to 140p?! Would love to send them a postcard at Christmas

Charles Archer’s blog references early Q4 for the DFS to be completed (and suggests it could be the earlier part) so I would be quite confident we will get results before end of year

Excellent spot kld1! Great news that Cannacord have increased their target by 10p but I still think that 140p is undervaluing this company when it’s free carry in Villeta is around 80-90p (and I suspect will increase once remaining equity and debt terms are disclosed). Once Villeta is over the line you have multiple other projects, as well as ATOME Power, that will all start bearing value in the next 12 months. I personally think this is closer to £2 as Longspur and SP Angel have targeted.

I suspect there are quite a few investors who bought in during the 30-50p days who are selling to grab a quick profit. I’m not too worried about them though, as it’s their loss in the long term. This will be soaring come the end of the year.

That said, I am a little disappointed at the time it’s taking ATOME to disclose details of the equity club. I can only presume it can’t be announced until all term sheets are signed and that takes some time post-offtake confirmation, but Olivier announced in June or July that the equity club investors were already known. Just a shame that we’ve not yet had anything despite the promise of ‘significant news flow’ in September (1 RNS, albeit a great one, isn’t significant if you ask me).

Fingers crossed the IFC’s Board meet as stated on 30 September and we get a further RNS on Wednesday or Thursday next week.

It looks like last week was a week of profit takers selling out to try and cash in on the offtake news, and ever since the sellers have cleared out this has been ticking up 1-5% on a daily basis to reach where we are now. If they can announce positive news on the equity side before the IFC, FMO and IDB Invest boards sit, this is now very well primed to rise quite significantly given there are no large sellers.

I do think that FID is likely to be December at the earliest now, given the new IDB Invest Board/approval date on their website. It’s frustrating that they can’t do anything sooner but I appreciate these things take time and governance is a lengthy process. I am not worried at all about the debt side though given it appears to be at least 5x oversubscribed.

Fingers crossed we keep seeing a flow of positive news (equity, site preparation etc.) to ensure this SP is heading north and not trickling back down like it has the last few times

Hey Kennedy - not the IDB (they are 18 Nov on the website) but the IFC is still showing as meeting on 30 Sep: https://disclosures.ifc.org/project-detail/SII/47553/atome-villeta-green-fertilizer

I agree the SP is definitely holding and I still think it is undervalued for how far along the track we are. Confirmation of remaining equity providers and clarity over whether ATOME are doing any share issuance to raise equity to participate themselves should hopefully see this at the 80-90p level as a minimum

Yes I saw that too Karny. Very frustrating but it does still mean they can get shovels into the ground by end of year as their last RNS announced. I’m just hoping they can announce the equity club composition this week or next and then the IFC board is due to meet on Sep 30 also. So hopefully enough news flow to keep the SP heading North and not South again …

Superb find 2phevs! You are the master of LinkedIn due diligence my friend ;)

Kennedy - I’m glad I’m not the only one who sits refreshing the RNS site at 0659 every morning ha! Unfortunately nothing today but they referenced ‘significant news flow’ so I should expect some more next week for sure