Member Info for Chrishar

Good article Elias, neatly summarises the business case for novacyt. I think it's prudent but also conservative to be using June's revenue figures for the rest of the year, so this bodes very well for us investors.

The three most recent stories they've shared are positive reports of coronavirus recoveries in India, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Do we think they're hinting at something there?! ;)

I fully understand that but it comes down to personal responsibility in the end. I'm in a similar boat and am caring for my mum who is extremely vulnerable and so I have eschewed the things I would have done otherwise to ensure she's well. I'm 27 (I think it's much harder for teenagers) and am able to work from home so it is doable. Three weeks ago when the virus seemed to be well contained I did go out and socialise a bit more but I am reigning it in now that a spike seems imminent.

What I am proposing is that during flair ups, and flair ups alone, MUCH more is done to protect those that are considered most at risk. Instead of locking the entire country down, those that are scared must do everything temporarily to avoid contagion.

I say this as someone whose life is not greatly affected by lockdown... but it is important to think about those whose life is.

I certainly didn't expect anything to happen in these first two weeks. Richard spent half of the first week just getting the word out and has then had no more than 9 days of talks behind closed doors.

We'll definitely be hearing from the company over the next few weeks though, that's a cert.

Great post allah. Funnily enough I happen to live in Lewes, next door to the stadium. I could try and find out more about their testing set up if that would be of interest?

Rich, I got the feeling from your recent posts that you were one of the guys who saw £2 as an exit and have banked most of your profits, is that fair to say? Your valuations do align with mine except my range for COPD trial success alone is a little higher.

I'm heavily invested in here still because of the unprecedented situation we find ourselves in. Recent events such as the US buying up the entire global supply of remdesivir is one example of that. I agree with you that it's a gamble but I do see it as a good bet with a favourable risk/reward profile... And I also see opportunities to potentially exit much, much higher from a spike off of good COPD results this week...

As long as there is a deep separation between the vulnerable and the fit and healthy then the young folk don't need to be quite so vigilant. There should be enough data and statistics now to identify the most at risk, not just grouping all the 70+ together. Without comorbidities, for example, I think the risk is still relatively low for a fit 75 yr old.

This way, during a flair up, the most vulnerable can be protected and only those that live and interact with them would be asked to lockdown once again.

Matt I think it's worth noting that valuations of £5 a share were mooted by some on here (not me) even before results, when the sp couldn't even hold 40p. I've always seen £3.60 as the upper limit for COPD alone but putting a value on SNG001 IF it plays a big part in the global management of Sars CoV 2? Goodness knows.

It's called trying to strike a balance. I think it's perfectly workable if say those that were shielding before are 'advised' to shield again and strongly encouraging (and incentivising) those living with shielders to take extra precautions. It won't bring the number of cases down to zero but it might at least reduce the number of deaths, whilst allowing the economy to return to some sort of normalcy.

Personally I don't think it's possible to value but keeping in mind a target of between £3.60 and £7.20 is realistic and reasonable.

For those of you that read the motley fool, two of the fifteen picks for August are Boohoo:

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/08/01/top-british-stocks-for-august-2020/

I don't know what is so difficult to understand about The Motley Fool? It isn't one organisation with a collective voice, it just gives ten or so 'advisors' the platform to share their investment tips. There isn't consistency as one might take a far more contrarian stance whilst another is highly risk averse. Neither is right or wrong, they're just sharing an opinion.

I find it can be useful when investing in large caps but not worth taking any notice of for smaller companies. Generally the investment advice given is to put your money in and leave it for five to ten years, something that is tricker when it comes to the likes of NCYT, ODX, etc. Really it's a platform for newbie investors to get a feel for investing and so articles on MF tend to warn people off the likes of novacyt as they are a riskier investment (as all of AIM is) than say piling in to GSK or HSBC and coming back in ten years...

My take on it is cineworld is really for families and teenagers. I don't know where in East London you're based but you must be near to a picturehouse cinema - whether it be Greenwich, Stratford or Hackney. Such a better experience.

Ps thanks for the review.

But... but... some of us love bat soup! Bat gazpacho is particularly scrumptious if cooked the Chinese Spanish way.

Yes very much a random thought.

It's been two weeks since that blockbuster rns. I'm sure there were many on here like me having to wrestle with the decision of how much of our profits to bank. On the one hand posters on here like ShareSting seem to have banked their profits and are just enjoying a free ride with their initial investment whilst on the other end of the spectrum those like Nolupus have continued to average up and increase their holding. Most are probably more like me, somewhere in between...

Seeing as radio silence was expected beyond the initial day or two of media coverage, we've surely got to be extremely pleased that the share price has held up. I expected shorters and day traders to force it down over this period but any drop was quickly bought in to.

We're now heading in to what is almost certainly a news-rich period. The COPD results will land any day now, the peer review should be forthcoming, news on a potential takeover/licensing and then there's still the At Home trial going on in the background. On top of that IIs are taking position and we've seen barely any sell off from our largest holders, despite 500% returns.

I think we're in for some exciting weeks now. GLA!

Thank you CCK, this board was eerily quiet today until your lengthy helpful post. I'm trying to understand the role of shorting, especially in regards to AIM. I am sceptical of those who reverse it by saying it's good news that they are shorting us. It's hard to believe that's really the case, although perhaps in this instance there is some truth in it. If Voleon is essentially a machine-learning hedge fun that is good news for us as the algorithm will not know what is actually going on and it makes a lot of sense re resistance points.

I think the company will finally be heard when they emphasise their 100% specificity and sensitivity and reliability. If the government want to be seen as serious in their 500k tests a day aim, they are going to be buying a lot of tests. We've GOT to assume that randox are out of the running and so it surely means a new deal would be in the range of 750k to 1.25m tests a week? A contract of this size would surely force Voleon to close and push us even higher? The ducks have been lined up in recent weeks, we just need that blockbuster rns we all believe is coming. Until then we might have to grow a pair and hold on for dear life!

As Ghia just said the covid hospital trial was run with a number of features that go beyond the scope of a normal phase II. Does anyone know if this was the case for the COPD trial? If not you've got to think that this was done intentionally with an eye on expediting the process and bypassing a phase III...

Eva, Punit gets that and all. But the question still remains...

why the drop?

Hardest decision of your life?

Seadoc I understood why you were short before. Forget all the technical stuff, I know you are of the opinion that we won't develop a truly effective vaccine and our best line of defence is testing. Now six months into the pandemic and with it becoming clear how close our relationship is with the government and with the odds of landing a sizeable contract with PHE/DHSC increasing, do you not agree that you could get (like third degree) burnt? I was worried a few months ago that other tests and technologies may supersede ours but now that's not currently the case surely you view this investment differently?