Member Info for Choppy

in RNS

that's pretty much where i am with this JTD - i have agreed with a few of your posts in the past. its almost as though the BOD begrudgingly and inadvertently will end up potentially returning funds to SHs! through no real creation of their own!
the drilling programme has been shambolic ive said it a million times here - i have also been what i think is realistic on take out price based on these muppets - i hope for significantly more, and fully accept this is possible..

2 pressie for me - No Amer BY Xmas
and loads of posters saying i told you so! (Bays singing xmas carols backwards in celebration) as their estimates of 37P + come home to roost

shows where my head is then! i’ll have to check that! i do agree with you in general that there is no real point investing in something if you are constantly negative, and as a rule of thumb if you don't trust the BOD you should sell, but despite some of my less than positive comments l do see the case for Amer given the clear and obvious potential. To your point i guess i try and add some balance, probably more out of frustration if the truth be told. This BB seems well informed to me (i could be wrong) and many on here have been eternally optimistic and to be honest haven't really offered any balance - Dusters etc are par for the course with this type of stock, so that's not really been my beef. its management. anyone will tell you the trick with any AIM stock (that is successful) is a strong and honest BOD - and i have my doubts based on a number of things they have done, or more to the point haven’t done. (hope to be proved wrong)
Stand out news for me was the OBA going on line. has to be. since then its been downhill as far as the SP is concerned until the talk of a sale. TBH i don't mind selling at a loss and i haven't here as i am holding out on ‘balance’. I just think people picking out 50p out of thin air in the short term are wide of the mark and is unrealistic in my opinion. I whilst it is better to be half full etc I don’t see any value in endless ramping

You’ve given a very consistent long term view that this is a winner despite serious bumps in the road and a largely declining sp. you have criticised bod where it was right to do so but you have remained stoic in your view this will come good. I’m far less confident given the ah!t show that is management and I simply don’t trust them. Furthermore the market has a clear view on this stock and it doesn’t exactly scream out.
Where do you see take out price (assuming it happens)

i wouldn't read too much into the Directors advising SHs not to sell shares. it is clear that they dont want this to happen as it destroys value for them. i wouldn't base an investment case on any subliminal messages they make.
i would also expect a tick up of a couple of percent per day now as the offers become more transparent. if this doesnt happen it is clear to me this isnt going for anything crazy.... for regular posters on here you know what i mean.., yes a 30% premium from here if you have been in for 6 months (if you bought at 12p) is a dream come true but for the Averaging down crowd a sale at 25p barely covers cost.

Tend to agree
By as is - drivers risk. No further spudding of assets which gives suitors chance to throw dice..real shame.
Stinks of a kiss me quick type deal
Mid 20s feel to it!!!

hi Col,

no i wasn't making it up, i was going on the average timescales for this type of process with comparable companies. i fully appreciate this isn't an exact science in terms of timing. That said i would have placed a hefty wager this would take time, and wouldn't be straight forward.. it is perfectly in keeping with how AMER do things. My point being the fact that we not likely to see further action until the end of the month is typical of management. If you throw in the utter nonsense surrounding the spudding of our key assets and all the missed deadlines this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
they turned down 17p because it is an absolute **** take. if they accept 22p it will be a total sell out. we've seen so many back of fag packets cals here, but to let this go for under 35p would be in my view a joke. I've always said that i think we will see offers in mid 20's which i hope get pushed back.

i am more pessimistic i am afraid Rhodi.. i sense something is happening behind the scenes which is giving rise to the delays in offers and announcements = primarily over the lack of progress on certain assets which should have been done long ago.
i get a sense that we may well be underwhelmed - or that low offers wont be considered (my preference). granted if we get north of 40p game on, but i think most on this bulletin board don't honestly expect that.

got to disagree there 3putts
better to sell something highlighting all the key features - we all know we have a potential jewel on display yet AMER for some reason don't reveal it to its full potential.
you would also like a clearer understanding on numbers and strategy.
failure on both counts leads to a lower offer price,

agreed JTD.
its classic AMER - i could have written that. it is perfectly in keeping with previous RNS's and confirms the intuition to be extremely cautious.
there is so much one can read between the lines, its almost not worth doing it.
i guess we all have to remember that 75% of aim stocks are not worthy of your hard earned money. the market isn't regulated enough and too many dodging dealing / directors. add in firms who are not transparent and there you go.
why would they have not moved certain projects forward is beyond me. once thing is for certain it is not in the interest of the SHs.

looking at disclosures im trying to timeline when we are likely see some action from the various potential bidders - and whether we are looking at different offers - whereby some offer for parts and others for the sum total. i guess in a perfect storm we would get both, which should create some sort of a bidding war. i'd be interested to hear from a few on this board on this issue.
i am also a little perplexed at how quiet it has become here... i have undoubtedly become increasingly sceptical and bearish in recent months, and what seems like an obvious money marking opportunity makes me even more nervous to push more chips into the middle...despite this overriding feeling of opportunity - i still feel something aint quite right

JTD - good ballast as usual and i agree - speculating endlessly without new material news is a waste of time and BB space. as is reposting the same sheet over and over again..
lets allow the disclosures to continue and wait for the next round of bidding.

pls stop posting this

some great well informed posters on here.. prob the best non premium bulletin board about!
for those that have contrarian views lets not waste time working out whether they are troller / de rampers. everyone is entitled to their view and sale price will be what it is. there is also a sense that certain posters are more worried about proving their Crystal ball is better than someone elses..
i think it is a fair view given what a let down the BOD have been here to accept that we may not get a great deal.
LC - as you keep discussing ophir that is a great example. the SH got well and truly stiffed.
i hope it doesn't happen here, and i hope we get North of 35p but i just wouldn't be at all surprised if we see something in the 20s .
curious we haven't heard on Sol too.. with all this up for sale patter the eye has been drawn away from some important updates... a clear way for the BOD to redeem themselves in one RNS! positive news on potential from SOl and Indico at a time crude is on the up and potential suitors are in the shop window!

sadly i agree. the sector is unloved hence an obvious takeout target regardless of 'potential'
LC - look at Ophir - 12 months prior to take out most analysts had a 70P++ price target (i know there was mitigating circumstances with fortuna etc) but it was sold for a snip (remember the Salamander asset too!!)
that is why the crows are circling. i dearly hope the optimists win out (30P++) but i fear the realist mid 20s at best might be nearer the money. needless to say i hope i'm wrong/

Important the way in which BOD deals with the first offer
Announce details pre open
Shut it down post - and decisively so. Can show no weakness to others at 17 p
It’s a terrible offer and so far from what I would be happy with
Let’s hope the message is loud and clear to others.

But sell they will.
Classic bod
Hopefully a bidding frenzy ensues but this is a low starting point and everyone will feel pretty disappointed

exactly.
and crude was 35% lower.

but you got Ophir all wrong (like me)
in my view this will be 'taken out' around the 20s which in itself is a scandal.
i'll be interested to hear from jux/JTD and Bays...

get ready to have you pants pulled down.
i haven't seen the offer but you can be g'teed its under 20p which for most on here is awful.

anything less than 30p and we have done like kippers... proves everything i have thought about this BOD