RE: Superoilspike unlikely, but oil demand will surprise to the upside nevertheless19 Mar 2022 14:52
I would have thought it was blindingly obvious that the Chinese, Indians and anyone else who could stomach dealing with the Russians would buy as much from them as they could, even for a modest discount. Also, as the Russians are short of foreign currency, isn't it likely that they will sell off some of their strategic reserve, assuming they have one.
It will be up to the Western Nations to physically disrupt supply from Russia by limiting tanker usage and impounding cargos. Although presumably Russian oil to China goes by pipeline, so unless that system reaches capacity there is no constraint in that market.
So with the Chinese and Indians not needing to buy as much crude from other exporters its likely that the war is a red herring as far as oil supply problems are concerned.
But what the war does give the western nations the excuse to do is to let Iran and Venezuela off the hook, and let them back into the market.