Member Info for chilting

There is I think a lack of clarity regarding the level of shorting for SM.

The majority of shorts are I think bond holders who are simply hedging their bonds with a short position. There is some evidence for this. Firstly the fairly consistent level of shorting and secondly the dip in shorts following the bond conversions in April 2018.

Even at stage two the bond holders may not be in that much of a hurry to cash out their short positions because they have been in long term and were probably taken when the SP was in the 30's. Though I think most shorts will close quite quickly after a successful stage two.

It will be wishful thinking to assume that that will be the end of it and that the shorts will stay away from SM - as soon as they think the SP has gone overbought they will be back.

Thunder

Kraken does need major improvement - the good news is that Bumi Armada are fully committed to undertake the improvements to the point where their economic viability depends on it - much more so than Enquest. The important thing is that after the improvements we get a much more reliable AK capable of a constant 40-45k.

L3

Agreed - basically we need two loads, plus a bit more, per month right into Q3 - because we know there is a three week shutdown sometime in Q3.

After the shutdown we can start to look at 40-45k - hopefully.

I think that load 33 was close to 550k.

HK has now left Scapa Flo but Euro is still there doing another STS with a lightly loaded shuttle tanker the Lock Rannock. Euro has a draught of 12m - hence the 550k estimate - HK was 13m before the STS.

Updated this morning -

Liberum Capital
Buy
SP 20.05
Target price 50.00
Updated target price unchanged
Reiterates

Steady as she goes.

A typical negative speculation piece from the media - it seems the editor told the hack - "go and write a negative piece on SM for me but keep to "facts", just highlight what can go wrong"

As for comparing tunnelling speeds that is totally misleading - with Crossrail for example they had to run the TBM's at a slow speed otherwise the vibrations would have crumbled the foundations of the buildings above.

Close, but not close enough - SK is heading for South Arne - just a few miles to the south east of EP.

It could be that SK is visiting more than one field - so I will keep watching.

Siri Knutsen - is on the move towards the south east - no indication of destination as yet.

Here is a comprehensive list of all the broker ratings since October 2016 - it is totaly inconsistent.

Award for the most bizarre target price has to go to Macquarie - who gave us a target price of 79p in January 2017 falling to 30p just a month later and by September 2017 just 7p - since then we have heard nothing.

https://www.shareview.co.uk/4/Info/Portfolio/default/en/home/markets/Pages/Broker-views.aspx

Siri Knutsen - the tanker that collected the last load of crude from EP is conveniently moored off Aberdeen at the moment - it must be time for another load??

Poor Sheep !!!

Trump has zero credibility - the Trump Baby has called Wolf too many times!!!

STS has just started between HK and Euro in Scapa Flo.

Yes, total shorts on Euroclear have probably dipped below 2.5% now - look out for new Euroclear figures for March mid week next week.

Revenue up 168% - thanks to Licence fees.

Gross margin up from 46% to 82% - loss reduced from £6.2 to £3m.

Great progress on partnerships - more to come.

Strong cash position - Funded to cash flow breakeven

News on commercialization is the key now.

Simply very low volume - lets see some action Thursday !!!

Good luck everybody.

Nice one Jock !!!

L3
The last load, I have, from Alma/Galia was on 27th January - it was a full tanker load but only a small tanker - around 200-250k from memory.

It could be that we have missed a load since then - AIS is very poor in that area of the North Sea.

I have been hunting for some time to find a reliable and complete source for Broker views - most sites only give a part view.

This one is by far the best I have found - full info and constantly updating throughout the day. -

https://www.shareview.co.uk/4/Info/Portfolio/default/en/home/markets/Pages/Broker-views.aspx