Member Info for chilting

Yes, and we have another hot contender - Scott Spirit - currently offloading at Wilhelmshaven, Germany - due to leave at 15.00 BST tomorrow.

Auson
I freely admit that I base my Brent predictions on gut feeling rather than market facts - sentiment is so fragile in this market - time will tell who is right.

To elaborate on my point - Brent has been rising for three straight months now - price trends usually seem to last 3 months or so - up or down - so it is reasonable to assume that the next trend will be down - and with all the uncertainty around the worlds economy, US production, Trump etc, it is no means certain that we will get another upward trend and even if we do it may not be as strong as this one.

Time to start hedging I think.

Around $70-$72 could be the top for 2019 - there are so many headwinds stopping Brent going higher.

The question is how long will it remain at this level?

Time to start hedging I think.

This story from Reuters is interesting but what about Trump.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-venezuela-politics-pdvsa/oil-prices-low-enough-for-u-s-to-stand-firm-on-venezuela-sanctions-pence-idUKKCN1RE22J?il=0

That all sounds good to me and explains todays rise in the SP - the Amaze SP effect !!!

Nothing to report as yet - most tankers are located at other fields at the moment.

I am also expecting action at Alma/Galia - last hook up was late January.

API shows 2.963M build - Brent and WTI both dipped and then recovered - Brent just short of $69.50.

Moving again after several dismal days drifting with virtually no volume - certainly a case of top up on the drifts - as I guess some have done this morning.

Just wait for more good news - any time over the coming months.

Volume at 9.20 is now 4,782,549 - pushing hard.

Looking good -

EnQuest
21.12
0.66
3.23%
21.10
21.18
2,604,415
08:52:46

Bluturtle
Well spotted - that confirms what I heard - ICL are using polyhalite in products other than their Polysulphate range.

Also this is quite a "technical mix" developed for landscape professionals in a highly competitive, price sensitive market - another very good sign.

wwguk/Scotman/Myosotis
The bottom line will be price - ICL are already making cost savings using polyhalite in many mixes simply because polyhalite contains so many plant nutrients - so less blending is needed.

If fertiliser manufactures can save money by substituting polyhalite into their mixes - this is certainly the case with ICL - then I think they will be queuing up for polyhalite as production from SM increases.

SM have the challenging job of pitching cost price against demand but this will be made easier because supply will be limited in the early days.

Scotman/Myosotis
I am seeing two distict markets here - the first is for fertiliser manufactures who blend product as I refered to in my prevous posts - these customers won't require huge volume individually because they are producing product mainly for the horticultural industry and smaller scale agriculture.

The second market - high volume - is for Poly4 to Agriculture via suppliers like ADM - these high tech end customers just need the starch covered product to mix their own blends.

Yes, and currently up over 3% with robust trading on live trade - a good start to Q2.

Scotman
From a fertiliser manufacturers point of view using polyhalite offers substantial cost savings.
To put it very simplisticly they just have to mix in nitrogen and phosphate and they have a compound mix that gives better margins than their current product mixes.
SM will be able to exploit this from day one of production - demand for polyhalite will be strong to enable robust pricing of the raw product.

Good evening Scotman

Yes, this was from the horses mouth - so to speak - actual confirmation!

wwguk
As a grower I get an insiders view from time to time. Speaking with a very reliable source I have found that a certain company that is currently marketing polyhalite products is also incorporating polyhalite in a whole range of its other product portfolio including its most expensive controlled release products.

As I am sure you will appreciate this means that polyhalite has a considerably larger market potential than a lot of the industry realised and could potentially make a massive difference to demand.

Its all speculation but I think the Chinese could be in the running.

Yes, its almost a conspiracy I think - we see so many articles about SM that talk about peaks and troughs with the SP - the media is conditioning investors that this is the norm - then the scare stories from the likes of the fool.

To some extent it is probably private investors who get carried away and push up the SP - it will probably happen again after stage two - but it is the shorts who have the last laugh when the see the stock going overbought they pile in and create a much greater fall in the SP than necessary then spook investors into selling or take out stop losses - all aided by the media.