Member Info for chilting

Sirius Minerals
17.51
-4.39
-20.05%
17.50
17.72
15,330,078

I think that the SP will open substantially higher this morning.

Todays bookbuild will finally commit the city institutions to the mine project and give us a broader shareholding base.

This will I think stabilize the SP and help its steady growth on the run up to production - their participation signals a reduction in risk for the project - with stage 2 funded - SM will become a main stream investment with a healthy SP.

The pot is much bigger now so 37% dilution isn't that much of a deal - although those looking at future dividends may disagree - onwards and upwards - the mine is funded !!!

Is sorted - we do however have $400 million dilution - at the lower end of expectations.

Generally very positive for the future - remember some dilution is already in the SP - last Septembers fall.

I expect the SP to rise strongly over the coming days and weeks.

A bookbuild to fund the £400 million - bad news - dilution with equity issued at 15-18p per share.

Cash will be raised by tonight via institutions - nothing for shareholders.

Could be under pressure this morning - Chinese manufacturing figures were bad - Chinese market is correcting with a 6% drop this week.

Over to SXX - exciting times.

GK is just 37 nautical miles from Kraken and should arrive at the field mid morning for a lunchtime or early afternoon hook up.

The final approach is from the south west and the weather is set calm until later on Thursday.

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The trouble is that all the rest of us will be able to buy the discounted shares as well - that's dilution.

But with the pot getting bigger there are compensations.

15

What I mean is if you can average down by participating in the rights issue it is good news but if your average increases that is bad news.

The eventual outcome after the rights issue shares start trading alongside the existing shares is an unknown - hopefully all shareholders will benefit - but I do feel for the long term holders who brought in when SM was a penny share - they will loose out.

The bottom line with the rights issue price is that if it is lower than your current average buy in price then this is good news. If it is higher then it is bad news.

I don't think that we will see a suspension - everything happens very slowly with a rights issue - it usually takes a couple of months.

Assuming stage 2 is announced tomorrow I think that the SP will rise, but the rise will be restricted by the rights issue dilution.

The true effect on the SP will only be known when the rights issue shares start trading alongside the existing shares.

I think the new shares will be valued at around 10-12p

Hi Pelle

I think that the risk aversion in financial markets is holding down the price at the moment - until that changes we could be stuck in this range for some time.

The new shares will start trading at some point - there is an open market - anyone can buy - but existing shareholders get to buy the shares at the price set by SM. Your broker will send you an application giving you the option to buy your allocation or part of it. You can also sell your allocation or part of it at the current market price.

Going on previous experience the rights issue price is always lower than expected - my guess is that it will be somewhere between 10-12p.

Taking part in a rights issue is a leap of faith because although the SP will initially seem to be unaffected by the extra shares to be issued, its not until the new shares start trading equally with the existing shares that you see the true impact on the SP.

So, looking at SM the pie is going to get much bigger - prospects are great - it is an absolute no brainer to participate.

So, if the Sky News story is correct we are to get a £400 million rights issue - this is absolutely brilliant and something I have been hoping for all along.

The Turkish economy is really hurting as a result of US sanctions against Iranian oil exports - they have a very compelling reason to break the sanctions - watch this space....

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/04/turkey-iran-usa-ankara-seeks-alternative-sources-iranian-oil.html

Brent could be interesting overnight in Asia and when London gets going - Chinese manufacturing numbers are due at 02.00 BST - some analysts are saying that they could be better than expected.

With under an hour of trading to go volume is quite frankly pathetic.

But I do wonder if this isn't good news for a change - the shorts seem to have largely abandoned us - they will have observed the dramatic improvement at Kraken. But the investors havn't picked up on the impovements yet.

So we are sitting on a dormant volcano that is just starting to rumble - when it erupts the SP will fly!!!

GN has slowed down a bit - ETA is now 10am tomorrow - hopefully we will still get a hook up tomorrow afternoon.