Member Info for chilting

Its all very perplexing what happened with load 36 - hopefully we will see load 37 within the next 7 days to negate any issues.

Draught of just 10m confirms completion of load 36 for STS in Scapa Flo with Minerva bound for the US.

A good day today - not that we should take anything for granted at the moment - we could be back down towards 15p again tomorrow.

One thing I did notice though was a lot of the buys were auto trades - maybe stake building - look out for notifications of major holdings - maybe Norges Bank is still buying.

If the SP continues to rise there would seem to be little point in applying for more shares in the Rights issue - hopefully this will be the case - we need something to boost the SP at the moment and get the sentiment running high again.

Hello E - I was assuming that NH was just hooked up to get the rest of the load for Minerva.

We are just over 12 hours now so I guess she will be sailing for Scapa Flo soon if this is the case.

It is just possible that NK has enough capacity for a full load plus the balance of the load for Minerva - we will have to wait and see..

If Norges bank did take a stake in the placing then it is logical now that they are supporting the SP to stop it falling below 15p - hence the rise above 3% announced in the RNS.

A backbone of insitutional investment is vital for SM's credibility with the City and it will certainly reduce SP volatility.

Likewise in the Middle East its very much a Netanyahu agenda developing and Iran is starting to respond.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-iran-rouhani/iran-threatens-to-resume-higher-uranium-enrichment-in-standoff-on-nuclear-deal-idUKKCN1SE0IJ

How all this pans out is totally up in the air at the moment.

The US seems to be doing everything it can to goad China at the moment -

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-taiwan-congress/u-s-house-passes-pro-taiwan-bills-amid-trade-tensions-with-china-idUKKCN1SE00W

Patience is still the key here - timeline is 2-3 years but SP will clearly respond to the potential long before that.

Finally a hook up - looks like 05.30BST.

The weather is very calm.

Verde
Indian agriculture is fairly shambolic - lots of produce doesn't even make it to market it simply rots due to poor storage and infrastructure.

I notice ADM actually invest in programs to improve farmers skills in collaboration with the Indian authorities - so it seems some improvements are in the pipeline.

Mostly we are talking then of small scale subsistence farmers, and lots of them, so how does SM fit in?

The one thing that these farmers will have in abundance is bulky organic matter - all free. It would be very interesting to see what benefits farmers would get mixing Polyhalite with these bulky organics - I suspect yields could improve very significantly as well as plant health - also deeper rooting would result helping to combat drought.

SM could I think do trials with small subsistence farmers in Asia and Africa to explore the benefits - as well as organic farmers in continental Europe and the UK.

KOH

Using financial logic you may well be right but this market doesn't follow logic.

For example Ocado £2.40 in November 2017 - £14.00 today - never made a profit.

Look at the potential and remain focused - its why we all invested here in the first place - sentiment rules logic.

Myo

I guess India may be another ADM contract?

https://www.adm.com/adm-worldwide/india

One important point -

It isn't just the funding that has now been sorted - I think that we can now be very confident that there will be excellent demand for Poly4 - the contracts signed for supply plus ICL's success with their Boulby offering means that when production starts SM will hit the ground running from day one.

Long term holders would do well to focus on the consequences of this for enhanced profitability as production ramps up.

The most important thing to find out in the next month is who has purchased the new shares - we should know on 23rd May.

What we need to see is the shares in the hands of several big institutions as a long term hold - this would I think give SM much more credibility in the City and remove a lot of volatility.

I think that we can also expect to see a modest rerate after 23rd May - hopefully this will also be a signal to reduce volatility and set the SP going forward again.

Last nights optimism for an early hook up has evaporated - now we have tanker tease - maybe this afternoon?

NH is just 14 nautical miles from AK so it looks highly likely that we will get a hook up early tomorrow - just how early remains to be seen.

We probably won't know who has purchased the new shares until 23rd May - unless news leaks before then.

The best outcome would be just a few large institutions who have brought with the intent of holding for the long term.

If this is the case then the SP will recover much quicker and we can expect a much smoother ride over the next few years - all PLC's need a solid back bone of institutional investors to combat volatility.

Yes, agreed casual - I think the market is expecting a modest rerate as a result of a successful stage 2 - shorts will know this and cash out.

The start of a new chapter and hopefully the SP will start to reflect the improved position SM has created with steady gains as the construction continues.

Shorts on Euroclear show a slight rise from 13.71% in March to 13.92% in April.

This does at least show us the position when the stage 2 announcement was made since then off course things have rather changed.

Hopefully by the end of May we should see a big reduction.

Shorts on Euroclear show a slight rise from 3.24% in March to 3.39% in April.