Member Info for chilting

The Ocado grid already uses AI.

The robots place items that are frequently picked in more convenient locations on the grid.

News this morning that the UK Treasury has finally given ground on the issue that has effectively stopped the UK Gas and Oil industry in its tracks - the Windfall tax.

They have introduced a floor below which the tax will be applied - this is $71.40, the average price of Brent over the last 20 years - the oil price has to fall to this level for two consecutive months for the tax relief to kick in.

Personally, I think this is the very least they could do and is unlikely to have any effect at all on investment and will simply keep the companies solvent - so its good news for the renewables industry and gives us a clear lead of the Governments priorities on energy.

More positive news output from Weichai in their latest batch of news updates.

https://en.weichaipower.com/media_center/news/202306/t20230608_94033.html

Hh77

It may be, but the tech is good and to be fair Covid and the macro have knocked them back.

Its certainly worth a punt alongside some other minnows - the logic being that at least one will make it to the big time, but its almost impossible to predict which one it will be.

I see that not a lot has happened in the month or so since I last commented here, other than another slide back in the SP.

Rate of development and funding is clearly an issue with these new tech projects and all investors have to come to terms with that.

The only logical reason for investing here, other than opportunistic trading, is as a long term punt 5-10 years.

Its totally pointless getting worked up about the slow pace of action, just accept that progress will be slow and dilution frequent.

I guess their short term assessment is for another interest rate hike, hopefully the last - that will knock the whole market back.

The headline shorts have been around the same level, 6%, since March and show now sign of closing and moving on.

Most are just renewing their positions and are well up currently, although they all lost out on their previous positions.

None have particularly large positions, top is 0.80%, so I guess if Ocado did release good news we could see a rapid exit.

Meanwhile as a long term holder I am just waiting patiently on OCDO and enjoying more action elsewhere - nice to see MKS doing so well.

Really motoring this morning on very high volume.

MKS is also around the same level as it was pre Covid in Feb 2020, as is the FTSE100 but the FTSE250 is about 2,000 lower.

I think M&S is a far better company now than it was pre Covid - more profitable and with less competition.

Therefore, the SP stands to benefit fully if it continues to move up to a FTSE100 listing and fill the gap in fortunes between the 250 and the 100 indexes.

1863

Its not the sticky shares with institutions and big and long term shareholders that are moving the market at the moment.

Its simply the small number of shares that are constantly churning between traders and shorts.

I think the SP drop is simply a result of delay from the JV and the move to the main market.

Most investors have very limited patience and understanding of any uncertainty, hence the drop.

Also a companies SP is one of the least reliable indicators on how it is performing, especially on AIM.

Add to that the poor macro and we get what we see.

Excellent set of results with revenue up 115.7% and gross profit more than double 2021.

Strong financial position after latest fundraise.

Momentum building strongly as Itaconix moves into a new phase of growth to become a much larger company.

The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle with electric cars and back tracking to other technology will be difficult, especially after all the investment.

There will have to be a compelling reason to switch and its unlikely to be cost - electric cars are so simple and are likely to fall in price as production increases.

The only limiting factor is the lithium-ion battery - tech for a viable lower cost replacement will be the big winner.

The problems at Waitrose go somewhat beyond a lack of chick peas.

Anyone think this could leave the LSE for the US?

Highly likely but probably not until the tech side is fully profitable - after the growth stage.

As we have seen so many times, the UK is a good place for young tech companies to develop but they need to move to the US or Germany as they become global players.

With few buyers about and little reason to buy in the short term it will be the shorts who dictate the SP as we have already seen for an extended period.

So unless Ocado can pull a rabbit out the hat - note, they are very good at doing that as the shorts have found to their cost on numerous occasions - then its still a volatile drift until the macro improves.

The business model here hasn't changed, in fact with new tech the time scale before the company starts making serious money from tech has reduced.

What has changed is the market and the world economy.

The SP was pumped up during Covid by increased demand and sky high sentiment now reality has set in and economic woes are to the fore Ocado is in exactly the polar opposite position - reduced demand, high financial costs and losses on retail leading to very negative sentiment.

So, although lots has changed the company does still have an excellent future and will at some stage come good again, even though the time scale for that is still unclear.

Investors should take note that Ocado is an International company and its best prospects for profitability are global rather than UK based, therefore, providing you don't have to sell the shares remain a hold for an indefinable period.

Just to add -

The longer term aim - in the run up to 2030 - should be to sell the other 50% of Ocado Retail to M&S.

Ocado need revenue at this stage of their growth, so it would be logical to sell M&S the other 50% in instalments paid for by M&S out of their share of Ocado Retail profits giving Ocado full benefit from Ocado Retail.

Typical hack story from the Times by the appropriately named Harry Wallop.

Although it does maybe highlight that a full M&S branding of Ocado Retail would be a good move, along with M&S having full control running the retail side of the business and Ocado the tech.

AquaeSulis

Even if I am not right regarding the timing, I think todays announcement is a clear indication that the JV will be signed at some stage.